Friday, January 8, 2010

SPX New High...VIX New Low...

DJIA 10,618.19 + 11.33 +0.11% SP500 1,144.98 + 3.29 +0.29% COMPQ 2,317.17 + 17.12 +0.74% Russell 2000 644.56 + 2.59 +0.40% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,851 1,691 Declining 1,177 1,000 Oil $83.25 +0.59 Gold $1,138.20 +5.10 SOX 367.68 +5.38 VIX 18.13 -0.93 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Friday was the lowest close in the VIX since May 13, 2008, a 19 month low. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.60%…XLB +1.39%...XLK +0.66% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.59%...XLP -0.34%...XLU -0.10% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Industrials, Materials, Technology, and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.29%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast, rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. This does not mean the market won't pull back. Technical analysis measuring techinques are not certainties. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target On Friday the SPX, COMPQ, RUT and INDU all closed at their highest level in over 15 months completing a strong first week of trading for 2010. The COMPQ led on Friday with a gain of +0.74% while the RUT led for the week up +3.1%. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Weekly Returns RUT +3.1% SPX +2.7% COMPQ +2.1% INDU +1.8% Major technology stocks AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and PCLN that have led the up trend for most of 2009 were weak this week and hit lows on Friday when buyers appeared with a support bounce in each of these stocks, which helped the COMPQ rally and lead the other broad indexes on Friday. AAPL +1.40 QCOM +0.49 GOOG +7.92 BIDU -0.36 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season with AA reporting on Monday and Options Expiration this next Friday. Be mindful of the potential for a pause or pull back. Look at the Charts from our Stocks to Watch list: (click image to enlarge) You can see why we remind you almost each trading day to: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. XLF paused on Thursday after reaching a horizontal resistance level and pulled back slightly on Friday. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX trend following through to the upside. Look at these NDX Leading Charts… (click image to enlarge) NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GENZ, GRMN, FWLT, TEVA, LOGI, STLD, AMAT, JOYG, ESRX, ADSK, LBTYA, JBHT, CTSH, CTXS, AMZN, INTU, LRCX, CELG, SPLX, BIIB, PDCO, ERTS, ALRT, DISH, MICC, KLAC, XLNX, CHRW, GOOG, LLTC, ORCL, EBAY, ILMN, MRVL, SRCL, INTC, EXPD, CA, FAST, QCOM, CTAS, AMGN and DELL. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, DLB, DE, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, AGU, MON, TDG, X, NTLS, NIHD, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, SNDK, MYGN, AMED, CLB, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DOW, DECK, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, HEAT, IPI, JOYG, CGA, FLS, FUQI, HLF, DV, ICE, K, MHS Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 EBAY, PWRD Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA VPRT, GME, MELI, AMZN, PCLN, MCD, WMT, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good Morning Dave:
Just remembered you mentioning last week that you were within 4 days of I believe a 35th anniversary (I think in trading and money management). I might be early, late or even off-but just in case.
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!!!
Thanks again for all you do.
Robert
CANI_212

Prasanna said...

Dear Dave:
Wanted to let you know that lot of us read chartsignals several times a day. We read, re-read and we also discuss them. We also take some virtual trades in the charts that you profile. Since we're at work or reading it from iPhone we're not able to leave any comments. We really appreciate all that you do for us.

Best Regards.

Scott Avery said...

How 'bout that X. When something is going parabolic we know that it can't sustain. I am up pretty big with my long calls. To confess I sold some short calls against it at the end of the day but still further out of the money then the long calls, so even if X still goes up I will continue to profit but at a slower rate. Yes, I have a stop for my longs, but I sold these short calls as a way of protecting my profits in the very short term. Is this a viable strategy even though it has not turned down yet? Or would anyone recommend to wait until it pulls back, closes below S1 etc. to sell calls? In the last two years, X has never been more than 11 points off the 30 day MA without pulling back substantially. Doesn't mean it can't. etc.

Brian McAllister said...

Hi Scott,

I might have waited for a signal that momentum was slowing, say a spinning top, doji or inverted hammer on the candlesticks. It is hard to wait for resistance with X since the next level of potential resistance seems to be a ways off still based on gap on 9/29/08. However, we have a target of 70 based on an inverted head & shoulders and that may be a resting point or pullback level for X. Happy trading!

Brian

Scott Avery said...

Good points Brian. Thank you.