Friday, December 18, 2009

SPX Rebounds to Close at 1,102.47...

DJIA + 20.63 +0.20% SP500 + 6.39 +0.58% COMPQ + 31.64 +1.45% Russell 2000 + 6.32 +1.05% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,786 1,646 Declining 1,238 1,107 Oil $73.36 +0.71 Gold $1,110.80 +4.00 - Jan contract SOX 344.83 +5.01 VIX 21.68 -0.83 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.14…XLK +1.13...XLV +0.00% Weakest Sectors: XLP -1.13%...XLI -0.68%...XLB -0.62% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Financials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.58%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,119 = December High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX formed a bullish harami after falling to a low of 1,093.88 before closing at 1,102.47. 1,102 is the middle of the six week sideways trading range with a high of 1,119 and a low 1,084. Only two sectors out performed the SPX, which is relatively rare on an up day. The positive here is that the leading sectors were XLF and XLK. Any breakout of resistance on the SPX will almost certainly need the XLF to participate. Over the past six weeks the XLF has drifted lower in a consolidation pattern. XLF is at its $14 support level of the past three months. The COMPQ was the strongest broad index, followed by the RUT on Friday. The SOX also had strong move on Friday. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) With the six week trading range in the SPX several stocks have formed my intermediate term C Pattern setup recently. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: The SPX formed a bullish harami on Friday. Watch for confirmation on Monday. Remember this next week is a holiday shortened week of just three and a half days. Christmas eve on Thursday, a half day and Friday markets are closed for Christmas. Expect trading to be lighter especially on Thursday. Light volume can also create extra volatility as the traders that are around are sometimes able to push the market up or down with less resistance. RIMM, ORCL and NKE all rose from positive earnings on Thursday. The RUT, COMPQ and SOX also had strong days. XLF formed an outside day bouncing up at support. If the XLF does rise on Monday, look for it to help move the SPX higher. Advancing issues led declining issues on both the NYSE and NASD. Tech stocks AAPL, RIMM, CREE GOOG, PCLN, AMZN and QCOM bounced at support on Friday forming bullish candle patterns, while BIDU moved lower. Look for confirmation in these support bounces on Monday. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +3.57 QCOM +0.26 GOOG +2.48 BIDU -1.44 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: CELG, RIMM, VRSN, SBUX, ORCL, RYAAY, PPDI, MRVL, FWLT, MXIM, VRTX, INTC, IACI, ATVI, CTAS, MSFT, MSFT, HANS, LOGI, ILMN, AMGN, MICC, YHOO, AMAT, NIHD, AAPL, CTSH, APOL, ADSK, PCAR, LINTA and CTXS. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, AMZN, SLGN, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, ACN, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, HDB, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, FAZ, MHS Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 CTSH, DLTR, WAB Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 MOS, CGA Staying Below 30 DMA BAP, ESI, HLF, ICE, PSYS, SLGN, MCD, IPI, AMX, ESRX, K, VAR, JOYG, WMT BIDU, DECK, GILD, UYG, RCI, BYI, JCOM, EBAY, FAS, NFLX, JOSB, PWRD, AAPL, GME, CHL, FLS, RBN, ATW, CAM, JEC, TRLG, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave:
Hope your AT class went well. Look forward to your next training on the East Coast.
Thanks for keeping the blog updated!
Have a Great Weekend.
Robert
CANI_212

Anonymous said...

Happy Friday, Dave.

Welcome Home!! How did things go in San Francisco? Awesome, I bet!

Thank you for thinking of those of us who had to 'stay behind' and continuing to post on your Chart Signals ..

See you in ATC on Monday-Can't wait...Oh boy!!!

Laney

Peggy said...

Hi Dave,
Any chance you will be coming back to Seattle any time in the next year?
One can only hope!
Have a great weekend, and thanks for all you share with so many!
Peggy

Scott Avery said...

Dave's AT live class was excellent. Seems to me that he covers most the most important KEY POINTS to trading each time, but the method of teaching and examples keep getting better with each presentation. One of the things he says is that many times one of the reasons that newer traders aren't as successful as they would like, is because they do not have the discipline to write down their trading rules so that another person could trade the same rules and get the same results.I'd recommend that any of us who haven't written down our rules do this before we put on any kind of trade.......real or paper trade. Also, he gave many examples of trading systems that have exact "to the penny" entries. And he really lives the example of his trading in day to day life. Even though I have seen him a number of times live, I never picked up on the fact that he always wears the same shirt (white) and certain tie for the first day and a blue shirt on the second. It's a small point, but I thought it was very telling as a matter of consistency and discipline that is the same when applied to trading. Thanks Dave for a VERY HELPFUL workshop.