Friday, December 4, 2009

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

2:00 pm ET - By the way if you read my 1:15 post, I thought I would let you know, that I did some selling this morning and it had absolutely nothing to do with concerns over the Fed raising rates...just thought I'd share... :) 1:15 pm ET - I love the humor that the financial media provides...today one source (and maybe a lot more than one) reported that stocks were up because the of the better than expected jobs report, a loss of just 11,000 in Novemenber, the smallest decrease since December 2007 and a better than expected unemployment rate of 10%...and that stocks were down from their highs because "investors wrestled" with the idea that the Fed might raise interest rates. Now, such a silly statement casts investors as complete idiots and morons...Why? Well if the better than expected job loss and lower unemployment rate really might cause the Fed to raise rates...and if raising rates from historic lows was a bad thing don't you think that investors already knew that? Think about this way, if the financial media can figure out that good economic news is actually bad news and will drive stocks down, don't you think that investors can figure that out too? And if investors know that it is BAD that the Fed might raise rates, why in the world would they buy only to sell a few minutes later? If they knew it was BAD for the Fed to raise rates from historic lows, then they would have just sold in the first place and skipped the buying. Oh my gosh, where do they get these people that write this kind of copy? Are they this incompetent on logic and that uninsightful to the intelligence of investors or are they simply hypnotized by the group traditions of past copy writers and reporters? Wherever, this kind of convuluted logic and low regard for investors comes from, you should appreciate it for its ability to bring a smile to your face...good humor is hard to find these days... :) Oh by the way, go back and check what the stock market did the last time the Fed was raising rates...I'll make it easy for you...from June 2004 when the Fed Funds rate was 1% to September 2007 when the Fed Funds rates peaked at 5.25%...If you can figure this one out, POST you answer in the Comments Section of this Post...don't be shy let me hear from you! :) 11:35 am ET - The SPX inches to another intra-day high and again sellers push it back...the SPX currently at 1,106.30 up 6.47 points from Thursday's close hit a new 52-week intra-day high at 1,119.13 before pulling back to its current level all in the first two hours of trading...commodity related stocks have been especially hard hit as the dollar strengthened today...the Euro is down 178 pips...GLD is -$4.14...FCX is -$4.26... BMO – ES +15.00 and NQ +23.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +3.40, AMZN +2.23, GOOG +7.26 and BIDU +5.61 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 102 pips in overnight trading and oil is quoting up 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 79 cents in pre-market trading. The SPX is going to gap up to horizontal resistance and be near Thursday’s intra-day high at 1,117.28. Stay prepared for a pullback while at the same time look for buyers push through resistance after three and a half weeks of sideways price action. Financials are strong in pre-market trading. If this sector holds on to its gains, it increases the probability that the SPX can break through resistance. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,087…1,082…1,075 Resistance = 1,106 - 1,117…1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: FAS, MRVL, AKAM, FSLR, JNPR, WYNN, JOYG, STX, RIMM, NVDA At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – XLE – FAS – AMLN – ILMN – CREE – DE – STLD – FLIR – FCX – PCP – EXPE – X – NIHD – CSX – UNP – WLT – POT – STX – AAPL – AMZN – PCLN – BUCY – JOYG – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – AKAM – V – NKE – CAT – SWK – ACN – PNC – DD – DIS – UTX –

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

If you were looking at the chart of the SPX at 12:27. What type of chandle would that be. Would it be a shooting star?

Anonymous said...

Hi, Dave. Since I tend to see downtrends behind every corner, do you mind stating whether FUQI is downtrending or just sideways?
And I presume it is too early to say the eur/usd has broken the uptrend. Correct?
one last question: at this moment, the SPY is showing bearish engulfing of bearish engulfing candle. Quite a sell off from the day's high. How many days in the future does that project weakness? Candles still make me jump too quickly, I think.

Peter Karrys said...

Hi Dave, From June 2004 to December 2005, the broad market was in a sideways trend. From January 2006 until July 2007, the market trended upward.

Wendy said...

Sure looks like the market was up overall from 2004 thru 2007. Using logic is so helpful :)

Anonymous said...

SPX climbed upward from Jun 04 to Sept 07, as did the DIA.

Christy Gibas

Wai said...

The market rallied during the time frame when the Fed last raised interest rates.

Marie S said...

The SPX was up 36% from June 2004 through Sep 2007, a long term uptrend.

Anonymous said...

like posted , market fell, found bottom and marched onwards and up with healthy pull backs along the way. Usd dollar intially found strenght against the eur but as the bullish market took hold the euro gain strenght maybe due to their over all economic strenght. I to was a seller yesterday --gold--- are you rolling on the floor yet:) :)
Robert B

Anonymous said...

Dave,

You mentioned you sold this morning. Just for clarification are you referring to that you sold long call positions you had or that you took new short trades?

Thanks,
John

pwester1 said...

Yep, market was up nicely during the time frame you mentioned.

I do find the media humorous sometimes, but most of the time they give me a headache. :)

Kenny B said...

Looks like the talking heads either need to go back to school, learn how to read charts, or listen to you. SPX = JUN 2004 @1155and SEP 2007 @1576. UP +421.

Anonymous said...

Good evening, Dave!

Now you know by this time that I am NOT shy- And, you must also know by this time that I simply can't pass up a challenge or request - So....

From the time period you mention; June 2004 - September 2008 the following Indices were;
INDU: UP
COMPQ: UP
RUT: UP
(And, last, but certainly not least!) The:
SPX: UP!

Okay, I am getting it-Do NOT listen to the financial media. Learn for myself. trade the market NOT my thoughts. Keep learning from you!!

Thank you, Dave.

Laney
PS
Particularly loved your post that this comment section is attached to. .

richardf said...

All the indices were in an uptrend in the time period of june 2004 till sept. 2007 and thru years end
Rich

Anonymous said...

The market was definately in rally mode from 04 to 10/07 reaching an all time high.
Great post Dave.