Monday, December 28, 2009

NDX and SPX Make New High Close...

DJIA + 26.98 +0.26% SP500 + 1.30 +0.12% COMPQ + 5.39 +0.24% Russell 2000 - 0.32 -0.05% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,560 1,235 Declining 1,488 1,491 Oil $78.77 +0.95 Gold $1,107.20 +3.10 SOX 357.64 -3.42 VIX 19.93 +0.46 The VIX moved up and did not confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved down and did not confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.51%…XLK +0.30%...XLP +0.19% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.34%...XLI -0.18%...XLY -0.07% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Healthcare, Technology, Consumer Staples and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.12%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Upward momentum slowed on Monday as the COMPQ closed at 2,291.08 its highest close since Sept. 3, 2008 and the SPX closed at 1,127.78. Most notable was the modest pullback in the SOX and Financials XLF which moved higher during the first 30 minutes of trading and then sold off until late afternoon. Both the SOX and XLF rallied from their lows during the final 90 minutes of trading. The SPX again failed to hold its early gains as XLF weakened. The SPX then rallied from its lows when XLF rose in the last 90 minutes. So the SPX did pause on Monday as we mentioned in our last Guidance. Advancers and Decliners were near even and the Sectors had a modest return range on Monday. The question is: Is this the pause that refreshes or the beginning of a short term pull back? Watch on Tuesday to see if the late rally continues or the sell off resumes. AAPL +2.57 was the thirteenth strongest NDX stock on Monday on rising volume. APOL, URBN, GENZ, RIMM, BIDU, BIIB, SHLD, ESRX and HANS were stronger than AAPL. Stop Update: Our stop on our X Jan 46 calls was filled today at 10:42 am MT at 10.90 for a gain of 8.71 or 397%. The original investment on this virtual trade was $11,025 and the net proceeds were $54,425 after commissions on both sides for a net gain of $43,400 on as you might remember an initial risk based on the stop of approximately $4,000. The trade was entered on Dec 9, 19 days ago. Nice breakouts on ICE and CME and potential breakout setups on K and DECK. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Be prepared if a pause that refreshes or pull back occurs. Remember this is a holiday shortened week with just three days of trading left. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance and watch for potential pull backs in stocks that are below recent highs. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.57 QCOM +0.16 GOOG +4.39 BIDU +8.30 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AAPL, DELL, MRVL, SHLD, ADSK, LINTA, BRCM, GRMN, CA, MXIM, LBTYA, KLAC, ERTS, SYMC, FLEX, ILMN,ALTR, APOL, LLTC, MICC, HOLX,ISRG, XLNX, INTC, GOOG, FWLT, NWSA, FLIR, FSLR, NTAP, VRTX and ORCL. Check out these Support Bounce Charts: (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA JW.A, DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SNHY, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, PETS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, GPRO, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, CPLA, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GXDX, HANS, PPD, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ESRX, ICE, JEC, MOS, TRLG, MCD, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, RBN, ACN, BAP, DECK, DLTR, EBAY, K, RCI, SLGN, PSYS, FAS, IPI Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 ATW Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 AMX, JOYG Staying Below 30 DMA CGA, FAZ, HLF, WMT BIDU, GILD, HDB, BYI, JCOM, FLS, PWRD, GME, CHL, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Dave,
I saw that you adjusted your stop on the Jan calls on X. For the intermediate virtual trade on X where would you suggest placing stop. I really want to protect profits however I want to continue to ride this trend without getting stopped out prematurely. I know you are thinking "what do your rules?" say. However I wanted to get your insight. As always enjoy hearing your insight!!! :-)

Christina

Dave Johnson said...

Christina,

You seem to already know my insight it is...Follow Your Rules! Put your stop exactly where your rules tell you to place your stop.

Dave