Tuesday, October 13, 2009

INTC Beats...Look for SPX Breakout on Wednesday...

DJIA - 14.71 -0.15% SP500 - 3.00 -0.28% COMPQ + 0.75 +0.04% Russell 2000 - 2.11 -0.34% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,302 1,209 Declining 1,710 1,471 Oil $74.15 +0.88 Gold $1,064.50 +7.50 SOX 330.00 -1.01 VIX 22.99 -0.02 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday, which is a new 52 week low. The SOX moved down and did NOT confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +0.54%...XLK +0.38%...XLY +0.18% Weakest Sectors: XLI -0.98%...XLV -0.96%...XLU -0.71% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Materials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.28%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.98%: ZION, CME, KEY, C, ICE, AOC, MMC, TROW, PNC, RF, AXP, WFC, USB and JPM. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.38%: SYMC, EBAY, T, ORCL, YHOO, ADBE, MA, EMC, CSCO, INTC and GOOG. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low 1,007 = November 2008 Horizontal Resistance The broad indices churned in a narrow trading range for the fourth straight day waiting, as we alerted you last Friday, for INTC earnings Tuesday after the close. Tuesday’s big news came after the market close with INTC reporting better than expected earnings and revenues and raising Q4 guidance. INTC jumped more than $1 in after-hours trading gaining close to 5%. INTC is a component of the DJIA, SPX and NDX. This led to an after hours rally in the SPY up 72 cents, which was down 22 cents for the day and QQQQ rose 35 cents in after-hours trading after rising only 1 cent on Tuesday.
(click image to enlarge)
46 of the NDX 100, primarily tech stocks, were higher in after-hours trading. CSX 74 cents EPS vs. 71 cents estimate, after-hours +2.64% ALTR 19 cents EPS vs. 19 cents estimate, raise Q4 guidance, after-hours +1.96% LLTC 27 cents EPS vs. 24 cents estimate, raise fiscal Q2 guidance, after-hours +0.49% (click image to enlarge)
Wednesday’s Key Earnings: GS, JPM, XLNX, C
Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up and look for the SPX to break resistance on Wednesday with better than expected earnings and stronger Q4 guidance from INTC as the catalyst. The next key resistance for the SPX is 1,100. As a bellwether stock, this good news from INTC, will likely lead the market higher just as it did in July. Of course other key stocks report on Wednesday and Thursday including GS, JPM, BAC, IBM and GOOG, and their EPS and Q4 guidance will also be an important factor for a sustained breakout as in July. Take breakout and support bounce entry signals as they occur and follow your rules. Breakout: AMZN, CAM, FCX, JCG, AAPL, PCLN, BIDU, GOOG, NTAP Potential Breakout Setups: BDK, BAC, INTC, WHR, DOW, BUCY, HANS, FLS, APOL, AKAM, AMX, CAT, AGU, NWSA, AXP Pulling Back: STT, FSLR, JOYG, ISRG Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Lower Close in Support Bounce: TXN, JCI, WLT, HOLX, FLIR, FWLT, HOLX, SPG Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: ZION, ADBE, FAST, LVS, WYNN, DE, XLNX, DD, MA, V, MRVL, X, JEC Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, AGCO, MON, MYGN, ORCL AAPL -0.79 QCOM -0.25 GOOG +2.07 BIDU -5.99 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: AKAM, SYMC, INTU, NTAP, EXPE, NWSA, EBAY, FAST, CERN, AMZN, STLD, ROST, LBTYA, XLNX, HANS, INFY, ERTS, ORCL, SHLD, GILD, LIFE, YHOO, COST and ADBE. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, PCLN, TDG, PCP, CLB, ESRX, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, GME, WRC, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, TRLG, GPRO, PPD, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SLGN, FSLR, NFLX, HANS, DV, ESI, STRA, MCD, CPLA, HLF, SWN, AFAM, AMED, CAM, GES, ICE, UYG, AMX, APEI, BLUD, EBAY, FAS, MUR, SPWRA, CHL, BYI, WAB, ALGT, DLTR, MHS, WCG, GR, SNA, SNHY, USD, BKC Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 URE, WAB Staying Below 30 DMA NTLS, PWRD, PPD, FAZ, BDX, BIIB, GILD, JCOM, JOSB, RCI, VAR, FUQI, JEC, X, CBST, RBN, RIMM, DLB, PSYS, MYGN, PWR, SYNA, MOS, ORCL, MON Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

3 comments:

Gr82BaDad said...

Thanks Dave, congrats, you called it!

Peggy said...

Dave,
Thanks again for such a comprehensive and informative post. I was thinking that it would take a catalyst such as great earnings/guidance from some of the major components to push the market up through the next resistance. Looks like it happened and you were right once again! No surprise there! Thank you for being such a great mentor and coach!
Peggy

Gary said...

Dave,

Looks like our Jan target is 1200 SPX. I let emotions get in the way of my MS Oct Call yesterday,entered a hard stop and was stopped out. The stories you tell of the lady that was right 70% of the time and the students that let emotions get in the way really hit home. I had a plan and I didn't stick with it. I'm sure it's my inexperience or maybe my frustration with "being wrong"(when I'm really right?, due to some downgrade (GS). But I really have and continue to learn from you and I appreciate all you do for your students.

Thanks,

Gary