Friday, October 2, 2009

SPX Makes New Low Day on Slowing Downward Momentum...

Downward momentum slowed on on Friday as the SPX and other indices moved slightly lower... DJIA -21.61 -0.23% SPX -4.64 -0.45% COMPQ -9.37 -0.46% RUT -3.55 -0.61% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 990 963 Declining 2,022 1,743 Oil 69.95 -0.87 Gold 1,003.20 +3.70 SOX 306.59 -3.38 VIX 28.68 +0.41 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.32%...XLF +0.07%...XLK +0.00% Weakest Sectors: XLI -1.29%...XLY -1.27%...XLU -1.08% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Consumer Staples, Financials, Technology, Healthcare and Materials were stronger than the SPX -0.45%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.07%: IVZ, ZION, JPM, ALL, SCHW, AFL, STT, BAC, USB, TRV, KEY, GS, AXP and CME. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.00%: AAPL, EMC, IBM, AMT, SYMC, ADBE, INTC, MSFT and MA. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = Aug 27 Support Low 1,007 = November 2008 Horizontal Resistance The broad indices finished the week lower primarily on Thursday's selloff. Markets found support on Friday as downward momentum slowed after release of the worse than expected jobs report. (click image to enlarge) On Thursday we pointed out the similarities in the SPX in the last week of June leading into the July earnings season and this week leading into the October earnings season. Take a close look at Friday...how does it look compared to June 23? Slowing downward momentum near the 50 DMA. Remember the present is never exactly like the past, however the past does give us patterns on how the big money traders are trading a particular market. Friday is a new low day and a break of the high of the low day would suggest a support bounce in the direction of the the intermediate term trend. (click image to enlarge) The SPX found support near its 50 DMA on Friday. Many stocks seemed to find support near their 50 DMA, forming a doji, spinning top, inverted hammer or piercing line like patterns. Friday was the low day on many charts. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up while the short term trend is down with slowing downward momentum on Friday. The Jobs Report which was worse than expected seemed to create capitulation selling at the open with the SPX and many stocks trading higher from their lower open on Friday. On Monday watch for a break of the high of the low day for a potential short term entry. Support Bounce on Friday: PCLN, HANS, WYNN, AKAM, FSLR, BIDU, FLIR, MRVL, HOLX, STT, ZION, AXP, BAC, ADBE, INTC, AGU, AMX, MA Breakout: ISRG Pulling Back: DOW, JOYG, PCLN, HANS, AMZN, APOL, WYNN, BA, AKAM, FSLR Potential C Patterns: ADSK C Pattern Breakout: Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: WHR, BUCY, FWLT, BIDU, CAT, FLS, FLIR Closed Below 30 DMA: MRVL, XLNX, JCG, DE, BDK, JEC, JCI, AGU, HOLX, NWSA, DD, X, FAST, STT, SPG, ZION, AXP, ADBE, BAC, INTC, WLT Potential Down Trend Setups: TXN, RIMM, AGCO, AMX, MON, MYGN, ORCL, MA, V AAPL +4.04 QCOM -1.26 GOOG -2.62 BIDU +3.19 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX: FSLR, WYNN, VRTX, WCRX, AAPL, CHKP, HOLX, RYAAY, ILMN, TEVA, COST, INFY, HANS, AKAM, MRVL, FLIR, BIDU, CA, CTSH, GENZ, SYMC, ADBE, INTC, MSFT, SRCL, CHRW, JBHT and VRSN. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PETS, PCLN, TDG, PCP, CLB, ESRX, NTLS, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, GME, PWRD, WRC, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, TRLG, GPRO, PPD, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SLGN, FSLR, NFLX, HANS, DV, ESI, STRA, MCD, CPLA, HLF, FAZ Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 APEI, SWN Moving Below 30 DMA = 6 AFAM, AMED, GES, ICE, SPWRA, EBAY Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, BIIB, BKC, CAM, GILD, JCOM, JOSB, RCI, VAR, SNHY, FAS, UYG, USD, URE, FUQI, JEC, MHS, WAB, X, CBST, RBN, WCG, DLTR, RIMM, ALGT, CHL, DLB, MUR, PSYS, BLUD, GR, MYGN, PWR, SNA, SYNA, MOS, AMX, BYI, ORCL, WMT, MON Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

3 comments:

sanjay patel said...

great post dave
thanks you very much

Royce said...

Dave, I love the blog.

I have a question about this specific post. You list PCLN, HANS, and WYNN as both Support Bounce (which I see) and Pulling Back. In one aspect I understand that you must be pulling back in order to have a support bounce. But I don't think this is what you meant.

Can you provide clarity on this?

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Fantastic post Dave, Gracie milli!

Out of town until Thursday, but will tune in whenever I can.

Have a great week!
Laney