Monday, October 19, 2009

SPX 52 Week High...AAPL Blows Away Estimates...

DJIA + 96.28 +0.96% SP500 + 10.23 +0.94% COMPQ + 19.52 +0.91% Russell 2000 + 6.16 +1.00% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,241 1,739 Declining 808 960 Oil $79.61 +1.08 Gold $1,057.50 +6.60 SOX 327.61 +4.78 VIX 21.49 +0.06 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.53%...XLU +1.41%...XLE +1.31% Weakest Sectors: XLF +0.46%...XLP +0.57%...XLV +0.87% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Materials, Utilities, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +0.94%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +0.46%: SPG, AXP, AFL, CME, PRU, SCHW, USB, MET, IVZ, CB, ALL, ZION, GS, MMC and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.09%: TXN, ORCL, EBAY, YHOO, AMT, EMC, AMAT, IBM, T, INTC and GLW. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support 1,133 = Mid September 2008 Support Key Support Levels 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target The broad indices regained Friday’s pull back plus a few points while waiting for earnings from AAPL after Monday’s close. The SPX touched 1,100.17 before closing at 1,097.91, a new 52 week high. The COMPQ and INDU also closed at a 52 week high on Monday. Monday morning's Look ath the Charts had big moves... (click image to enlarge) Friday’s pull back which was driven by a negative reaction to earnings from IBM, BAC, GE and C was reversed as these stocks traded higher most of the day. Financial stocks pulled back during the last 90 minutes of trading and BAC, C and GE closed slightly lower. IBM closed up $1.42. Friday’s leaders GOOG traded higher but lagged the market on Monday while HAL gained another 2.14%. As of Monday’s close the SPX is up 40 points during the last eight trading days since AA released earnings. AAPL reported earnings of $1.82 versus $1.42 estimates. AAPL shares gapped up $12.54 on more than 9 million shares in after-hours trading. Look for AAPL to gap up Tuesday morning from Monday’s close of 189.86. Monday’s Key Earnings: AAPL 1.81 earnings versus 1.42 estimates TXN 0.42 earnings versus 0.40 estimates STLD 0.30 earnings versus 0.23 estimates ZION -1.41 earnings versus -1.24 estimates Tuesday’s Key Earnings: DD, BTU, STT, ISRG, MS, WLT, WFC, YHOO, ATI, ALGT, AMLN, BK, CREE, GILD, SNDK, STX, KO, UNH, UAUA, BIIB Guidance: The intermediate term trend is STILL up. The SPX traded in a narrow range Monday, making a new high close while awaiting AAPL earnings after the close. AAPL blew away estimates by 40 cents a share. Expect this to carry over to Tuesday morning’s market. Look for the market up trend to continue. As we said in Friday’s Guidance the market is in earnings season and big money will discount the new information in price as soon as they hear it. AAPL was discounted up over $12. On Monday several stocks had strong break outs at horizontal resistance and big bounces off support. Take breakout and support bounce entry signals as they occur while also watching for short term exit signals in the event of the break of the low of the high day. Monday was a new high day on many charts. Follow your rules. Breakout: BIDU, AGU, CAT, NKE, ADSK, AAPL, BDK, JOYG, BUCY, HANS, FLS, AKAM, AMZN, CAM, FCX, JCG, GOOG, NTAP, NWSA Potential Breakout Setups: ORCL, FLIR, WLT, DE, PCLN, INTC, DD, ADBE, WHR, DOW, APOL, AXP, MA, V Pulling Back: AMX, BAC, STT Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: Lower Close in Support Bounce: JEC, X Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: FSLR, AGCO, TXN, SPG, ZION, FWLT, XLNX, MRVL, FAST, JCI, HOLX Potential Down Trend Setups: RIMM, MYGN, MON, LVS, WYNN AAPL +1.81 QCOM +0.10 GOOG +2.24 BIDU +15.23 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: JOYG, VRSN, BIDU, NVDA, ISRG, GRMN, DISH, MICC, FSLR, SHLD, NIHD, ORCL, EXPED, EBAY, JNPR, NWSA, CTSH, YHOO, FLIR, LOGI, FISV, PCAR, SIAL, ADSK, URBN, STX, DTV, XRAY, PDCO, ROST, CHKP, XLNX, FWLT, ATVI and. LLTC. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CTSH, AAPL, PCLN, TDG, PCP, CLB, ESRX, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, BAP, GME, WRC, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ATW, EZPW, JOYG, TRLG, GPRO, PPD, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SLGN, FSLR, NFLX, HANS, DV, ESI, STRA, MCD, CPLA, HLF, SWN, AFAM, CAM, GES, ICE, UYG, AMX, APEI, BLUD, EBAY, FAS, MUR, SPWRA, CHL, BYI, WAB, MHS, GR, SNA, SNHY, USD, BKC, WMT, DLB, GILD, JOSB, MOS, WAB, URE, JEC, MON, X, ORCL Moving Above 30 DMA = 7 DLTR, FSLR, WRC, SNHY, USD, URE, PWRD Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 PETS, WCG Staying Below 30 DMA MON, X, AMED, PSYS, ALGT, NTLS, PPD, FAZ, BDX, BIIB, JCOM, RCI, VAR, FUQI, CBST, RBN, RIMM, MYGN, PWR, SYNA Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

CR said...

Repeat repeat repeat the action consistently and the "accidents" keep occurring . This is the best year of my trading so far - this is the year I made big changes - these changes are payinf off - discipline routine targets entries - now i need to concentrate on my exits. The blog format rocks and ite easy to find the information we are looking for. My only hope is this - we get to watch you enter trades in the model portfolio but we dont talk about all their exits as they happen - any chance you can post the portfolio on a regular basis like over the weekends so we can see how we are doing. Thanks Dave - your energy never ceases to amaze me CR