Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Stocks Rise and Sell Off
DJIA - 121.70, -1.51%
SP500 - 6.28, -0.75%
NASDAQ Comp. - 1.25, -0.08%
Russell 2000 - 4.42, -0.98%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 1,674 1,092
Declining 2,082 1,650
Oil $40.32 -$0.46
Gold $901.60 +$9.60
SOX 212.75 +1.92
VIX 43.85 +0.79
The VIX moved up confirming the move down in the SPX on Tuesday.
Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.83%...XLE +0.94%...XLU +0.75%
Weakest Sectors: XLP -2.72%...XLY -2.19%...XLF -1.10%
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLU, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK
Down Trending: XLF
Stocks rose to short-term resistance near mid-day when sellers took over and prices fell. The broad indices finished lower on Wednesday. DIS and KFT weighed on the Dow after releasing earnings below expectations. Consumer Staples XLP was the weakest sector.
After the close CSCO released earnings above expectations but gave lower guidance for the current quarter and year. CSCO was down 69 cents in after-hours trading.
V reported better than expected earnings after the close and rose 3.87 or 7.88% in after-hours trading. MA reports earnings BMO Thursday morning.
AMZN cools off after rising 27 % as it formed a three white soldiers candle pattern…watch for a potential entry from an earnings flag pattern. .
Index Commentary
The DJIA formed a large black candle closing near its low of the day.
The SPX after rising early pulled back and closed near Tuesday’s S1 level.
The Nasdaq also rose early and formed a potential shooting star closing near Tuesday’s close.
The RUT gave back all of Tuesday’s modest gains in forming a shooting star like black candle.
Stock Commentary
Rail stocks BNI, CSX and UNP moved higher and pulled back at horizontal resistance
NSC broke the high of the low day
Steel stocks STLD, NUE and SCHN moved higher and pulled back at horizontal resistance
X confirmed Tuesday’s bullish harami and broke the high of the low day
Semiconductor stocks
NVLS, XLNX, ALTR still near the high of the low day
MRVL moved up 19 cents at resistance…potential breakout…new high close
NSM, LLTC moved to horizontal resistance
TXN moved higher
Coal stocks KOL, BTU, JRCC CNX and FCL formed small spinning tops
MEE moved lower after reporting earnings below estimates Tuesday evening
WLT is still near the high of the low day
Earnings
Wednesday, Feb 4
Symbol Earnings Estimate
AGN +0.76 beat +0.73
BCO +0.83 beat +0.57
CLX +0.62 beat +0.57
ITT +0.82 beat +0.77
KFT +0.43 below +0.44
NOV +1.44 beat +1.33
RL +1.05 beat +0.86
SNA +1.01 beat +1.00
PM +0.71 beat +0.62
AKAM +0.44 beat +0.40
ATW +1.22 beat +1.15
CSCO +0.32 beat 0.30
EXBD +0.50 below +0.57
DLB +0.56 beat +0.43
EOG +0.74 below +1.04
FMC +1.02 beat +0.86
NVLS -0.21 below -0.17
PRU -2.69 below -1.19
PHM -1.33 below – 0.71
SPTN +0.40 beat +0.39
SUN +2.69 beat +2.15
V +0.78 beat +0.66
Numbers exclude non-recurring items
Thu Feb 5
BMO – ANR, CAH, CI, DO, EL, FLIR, K, MA, MCO, NCR
AMC – AMX, COHU, HIG, MCRS, NFS, PENS, SRCL, VRSN
Fri Feb 6
BMO – BIIB
Learn the Discipline
We entered positions on AMED and CPLA on Wednesday. Our HLF limit order did not fill. So we now have four positions including ESRX and GME entered on Tuesday. FSLR, PCLN and RBN crossed above their 30 DMA on Wednesday. We will look to enter positions here on Thursday based on market conditions.
Of the original $152,000 in the model portfolio, approximately $8,000 is invested.
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Leading Stocks:
Holding Above 30 DMA
NFLX, BDX, ESI, JW.A, MYGN, CLB, RIMM, SYNA, BLUD, APEI, HANS, STRA, WRC, GMCR, PCP, GES, GME, MHS, SWN, MOS, PWR, TDG, AAPL, BIIB, GPRO, GXDX, JCOM, WCG, VAR, BIDU, GILD, RCI, VPRT, FLS, ESRX, SLGN, ATW, CPLA, CTSH, HLF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
FSLR, PCLN, RBN
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
AMED, DLTR, DV, K, PPD, PSYS
Staying Below 30 DMA
CAM, BKC, JOSB, ORCL, PCR, BYI, CSCO, MUR, WMS, DLB, JEC, PETS, NTLS, BAP, HDB, AMX, CBST, DECK, AFAM, CHL, EZPW, WAB, ALGT, ICE, SPTN, PRGO, AXYS
Wednesday’s Action
Moving Up: GS, FSLR, POT, MOS, MON, CF, SOHU, MS, AEM, DRYS, AGU, X, SCHN, PCLN, SINA, CLF, IPI, V, KMT, GDX,
Moving Down: STRA, ADM, MEE, AFAM,
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
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