Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Bullish Harami at Support...

DJIA + 50.65, +0.64% SP500 + 6.58, +0.80% NASDAQ Comp. + 5.77, +0.38% Russell 2000 + 2.18, +0.49% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,169 1,500 Declining 1,560 1,209 Oil $35.94 -$1.61 Gold $943.80 +$30.10 SOX 215.11 -2.22 VIX 44.53 -2.14 The VIX moved down confirming the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +4.81%...XLV +1.25%...XLY +0.78% Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.14%...XLU -0.31%...XLB +0.00% Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLU, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK Down Trending: XLF Downward momentum paused on Wednesday as many stocks had fallen into areas of support on Tuesday. The DJIA and SPX traded near Tuesday’s lows and bounce. The Nasdaq and RUT traded lower and bounced. All four indices finished positive for the day after news of agreement on the economic stimulus bill. The Financial Sector XLF +4.81% was Wednesday’s strongest sector after being Tuesday’s weakest sector. Bank stocks which fell more than 10% on Tuesday were positive on Wednesday: RF, Key, ZION, BAC, C, WFC, USB, STT Ag-related stocks were mixed with AGU +2.76% after earnings were better than estimates…MOS, POT and CF moved lower. Technology stocks were mixed with AAPL, ADBE, GOOG and QCOM moving lower while AMZN, MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, and SYMC moved higher. RIMM dropped -14.5% after commenting that Q4 earnings would come in at the low end of estimates AKAM formed a black spinning top holding above its horizontal breakout level forming what appears to be horizontal bull flag. AMZN formed a white candle that rose to middle of Tuesday’s black candle. Index Commentary The DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq and RUT all formed potential bullish haramis near Tuesday’s low and below the R1 of Tuesday’s black candle. The Nasdaq formed a doji while the other indices formed small spinning tops. Watch for confirmation of the haramis on Thursday. Stock Commentary Many stocks listed formed black candles with lower shadows. Since these stocks have fallen near support areas the lower shadows may indicate the potential for a short-term reversal. Today is a low day for many of these stocks. BNI, UNP, NSC, CSX moved lower forming black candles with lower shadows STLD, NUE, SCHN formed bullish haramis X formed a black candle with a lower shadow XLNX, ALTR, NSM, MRVL LLTC, TXN, NVLS moved lower forming black candles with lower shadows KOL and WLT formed bullish haramis BTU, JRCC, CNX, MEE, FCL all formed black candles with lower shadows Earnings Wednesday, Feb 11 Symbol Earnings Estimate AGU +0.70 beat +0.64 AYE +0.51 below +0.52 CCE +0.22 beat +0.52 GENZ +1.04 beat +1.02 MMC +0.37 beat +0.32 MICC +0.61 below +1.52 NICE +0.50 beat +0.46 PFCB +0.31 beat +0.26 SKYW +0.37 below +0.46 ATVI +0.31 beat +0.29 CMG +0.52 beat +0.49 RE +2.93 beat +2.84 INSP -0.23 below -0.05 LVS -0.04 below +0.04 LOOP +0.12 beat +0.11 MOH +0.58 inline +0.58 NTAP +0.28 inline +0.28 STR +0.99 beat +0.84 RNR +0.47 below +1.13 TCO +0.87 beat +0.81 TEX +0.62 beat +0.61 TQNT +0.05 below +0.06 Numbers exclude non-recurring items Thur Feb 12 BMO - AET, CPLA, KO, ECA, GCL, CLI, MAR, MLM, NXY, NRG, NWN, ZEUS, PTEN, RSH, REV, STRA, TASR, ULBI, WMI AMC – ACAP, AGII, BIDU, COG, CEPH, CAKE, DRYS, ENH, GDI, MFE, NTGR, PNRA, RNWK, TK, WCLK, WYNN Fri Feb 13 BMO – ANF, ALE, BAM, CTSH, ENB, PEP, WYN Learn the Discipline The Model Portfolio entered positions in ATW, AMX, BLUD, CHL, FLS, GES, HANS, ICE, GILD, PCLN, STRA on Wednesday. One position CAM at $21.61, a loss of $1.85, were stopped out. The other six positions did not hit their stops. Of the original $152,000 in the model portfolio, approximately $34,000 is invested. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks: Holding Above 30 DMA NFLX, ESI, MYGN, MON, SYNA, BLUD, APEI, HANS, STRA, WRC, GMCR, PCP, GES, GME, MHS, SWN, MOS, TDG, AAPL, BIIB, GPRO, WCG, VAR, BIDU, VPRT, FLS, AMZN, SLGN, ATW, FSLR, PCLN, RBN, SPWRA, AMED, DLB, ORCL, PSYS, AMX, DV, EBAY Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 CTSH, ESRX, GILD, ICE Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 CHL, GXDX, PCR, PWR, RIMM Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, BYI, CAM, CPLA, JCOM, JW.A, MUR, PPD, RCI, ACN, NIHD, SNHY, JOYG, CLB, HLF, DLTR, K, BKC, JOSB, JEC, PETS, NTLS, BAP, HDB, CBST, DECK, SNA, AFAM, EZPW, WAB, ALGT, AXYS Wednesday’s Action Moving Up: STRA, MA, GS, AEM, GDX, MS, FSLR, V, ESRX, AGU, SOHU, KBE, FWLT NUE Moving Down: POT, MOS, IPI, CF, MON, AFAM, UAUA Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT Short Term Market Trend: Down

5 comments:

rory said...

what does BMO & AMC mean?

John Kevan said...

Dave
Are you using a bounce off the 30MA as your entry signal versus a break of it?

Rory
BMO = Before Market Opens
AMC = After Market Closes

Dave Johnson said...

Rory,

John is right...
BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

DJ

Dave Johnson said...

John,

Are you referring to the Model Portfolio?

Dave

John Kevan said...

Aloha Dave
Yes, meant the model portfolio.
Was noticing the entry adjustments based on market conditions and the anticipatory entry on the bounce.
John