Monday, August 4, 2008

Oil Falls Again, Stock Fall, Rise and Close Down

DJIA - 42.17, -0.37% SP500 - 11.30, -0.90% NASDAQ Comp. - 25.40, -1.10% Russell 2000 - 12.02, -1.68% NYSE NASD Advancing 1,048 968 Declining 2,065 1,906 Oil $121.41 -$3.69 Gold $907.90 -$9.60 $SOX 339.70 +1.52 Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.91%...XLV +0.85%...XLY +0.74% Weakest Sectors: XLE -4.70%...XLB -4.34%...XLU -1.08% The indices which fell at the open found support and rallied as oil prices broke support towards mid-day. Stocks retreated in the later part of the day and finished above the low of the day as traders looked for the Fed Announcement on Tuesday at 2:15 ET. Markets often have greater intraday volatility on Fed Announcement days, especially shortly before and after the announcement. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a spinning top just under its 20 DMA and in the area of last Tuesday S1 level. The SPX moved down just under its 20 DMA and in the area of last Tuesday's S1 level. The Nasdaq closed just above its 20 DMA and between the S1 and S2 levels of last Tuesday's large white candle. The RUT closed below its 50 DMA and in the area of last Tuesday's S1 support level...closed above its 20 and 30 DMA...closed at rising support line of its pennant pattern...still below its 200 DMA. Earnings Watch Monday BMO Earnings Moving Up: HUM, Monday BMO Earnings Moving Down: CMED, DISH, ICE, TM Monday AMC Earnings Moving Up: PFC Monday AMC Earnings Moving Down: APC, Stock Commentary Coal stocks continued their recent down trend KOL fell over $4 from its bear flag break on Friday to horizontal support BTU broke out of bear flag pattern on Friday...fell over $5 today and closed below its 200 DMA and horizontal support...if support break holds chart target 51 CNX continued it move from its support break on Friday...chart target is 59 MEE broke its bear flag pattern today moving down $9 Ag-related stocks accelerated their down trend on Monday POT broke support falling over $20 from its bear flag pattern on Friday AGU broke out of its bear flag pattern and fell over $7 to support MOS broke out of its bear flag pattern and fell over $13 through support CF fell over $13 from resistance in its sideways trend...chart target support at 135 to 140 X which the support of the top of its gap on Friday, fell over $11 on Monday through the bottom of its gap DECK formed a piercing line candle after just barely penetrating below 106 support on Friday MA formed an inside day and an inverted hammer at its 200 DMA SCHN fell over $10 on Monday after break below its bear flag pattern Friday...broke below horizontal support and its 200 DMA FSLR fell over $13 on Monday after breaking below the low of the high day on Friday MON fell below its 200 DMA DRYS broke support and fell over $6 to the next support level NUE moved lower toward its chart target is 49 BIDU fell over $13 and broke below Tuesday's S1 and S2 horizontal support RIMM move down over $3 after Friday's dark cloud cover AAPL broke below the support of its pennant pattern NIHD moved up to resistance in it's horizontal bull flag SINA formed a bearish engulfing pattern in its horizontal bull flag...watch for a break below short-term support and its 200 DMA or a support bounce towards the resistance of its bull flag Monday’s Action Moving Up: DECK, IBM, V, UAUA Moving Down: POT, BIDU, CF, FSLR, MOS, X, BUCY, SCHN, MEE, MON, AGU, DRYS, ANR, MA, FWLT, CLF, BTU, IPI, PCLN, CNX, GS, SOHU, RIMM, AAPL, USO, NUE, STRA, MTL, SINA, GRMN, CELG, LEH Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

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