Markets Moving Up From Higher Low

11:15 ET DJIA +192 ...SPX +19 ...Nasdaq +33...Rut +9...Oil -41 cents A week ago we stated that our we thought there was now a 60% probability that the market was going into a new up trend. We do not know that, but a combination of what the chart tells us now and our experience with PC-based technical analysis charting systems over the past 18 years, we still conclude the probability to be 60% at this time. Yesterday one of our associates asked us about this statement and we reiterated it and the reasons we have shared continually for the past three weeks. Last night in our audio commentary, we restated this and reemphasized what is compelling right now. There are two factors on the charts right now that so significant in a historical perspective of trend change that those of lesser experience are not going to see until more technical evidence appears on the chart. The first is that the buying action of the big money has changed dramatically since July 16. Since the double top in the DJIA on May 19, there was not a single time they were willing to buy the market above a previous short-term high or buy it for more than three days and most of the times only one or two days straight. Since July 16 the big money buying has become more aggressive not only in the DJIA, but also in the SPX, Nasdaq Composite and most notablly in the RUT. The second aspect is that their selling has become less aggressive. Plain and simple, the indices are making high lows. It is this combination of more aggressive buying and less aggressive selling that is on the charts that led us to conclude last week that a new uptrend is a 60% probability. Remember 60% is not 100% and there is still a 40% probability that a new intermediate term trend won't emerge at this time. Dave's Insight: A savvy trader going to take the larger odds every time and adjust should the smaller odds materialize. One other point. When a less experienced trader doesn't get immediate satisfaction from their forecast, their conviction level oftens weakens. Ours has not done so. Why? Because the pause and base building in the indices over the past 10 to 15 trading days (depending on the index) is a confimation of the less aggressive selling and that reiterates the liklehood of a new intermediate term up trend. Last night in our audio commentary we pointed out technical evidence and told listeners to not be surprised if the markets moved higher today and they have from the open in a big way. Watch closely the price action, the horizontal support and resistance levels and the moving average support and resistance levels and the picture should become quite clear for you. We mentioned last night five stocks that are trading in either horizontal bull flags or the diagonal flag that caught our attention: NIHD, WLP, LNCR, SYNA, NSC. All are moving up and four of the five are moving very nicely in the first 90 minutes of trading. Stay focused on trend, support and resistance and momentum. Tuesdays' Early Action Moving Up: DECK, PCLN, AAPL, RIMM, STRA, X, SCHN, AMZN, MER, LEH, CELG, NIHD, BTU, MS, ESRX, MA Moving Down: CF, CLF, POT, IPI, MON, ANR, BUCY USO, MOS, MEE, AGU, DRYS, GS