Friday, August 1, 2008

Oil Up, Gold Down...Markets Consolidate

DJIA - 51.70, -0.45% SP500 - 7.07, -0.56% NASDAQ Comp. - 14.59, -0.63% Russell 2000 + 1.64, +0.23% NYSE NASD Advancing 1,553 1,419 Declining 1,547 1,422 Oil $125.10 +$1.02 Gold $917.50 -$5.20 $SOX 338.18 -2.68 Strongest Sectors: XLF +0.24%...XLE +0.12%...XLI -0.09% Weakest Sectors: XLU -3.05%...XLB -2.53%...XLK -0.89%

Even though three of the four broad indices were down, the number of advancing issues increased for both the NYSE and Nasdaq on Friday from Thursday. Advancing issues on the NYSE increased by 343 and the Nasdaq by 66. On the NYSE advancers led decliners by 6 and on the NASD advancer only trailed decliners by 3. This suggests the broader market may have been a little stronger than the indices reflect.

Each of indices have been in a sideways consolidation pattern for the past 8 to 12 days...this type of trading action could accurately be described as "choppy"...if you are trading ETF's or stocks that are in this type of pattern, either think more intermediate term as they consolidate or shorten your time frames to the actual bounces between support and resistance which could be as short as one to three days. Some traders prefer to wait for a breakout of either support or resistance before commiting to a position in a consolidating market.

Index Commentary The DJIA found support at Tuesday's S1 level and rallied to close at its 20 DMA...formed a spinning top candle...watch for either a break of support or resistance for the next directional move. The SPX opened at its 30 DMA, bounced down and found support at its 20 DMA...closed about 5 points above its 20 DMA...formed a spinning top candle...consolidating in a rectangle type pattern. The Nasdaq found support at its 20 DMA...rallied and formed a hanging man pattern...closed above its 30 DMA for the fourth straight day...the past 12 days consolidation is forming a rectangle or horizontal flag. The RUT found support at Tuesday's S1 level...rallied and formed a hanging man pattern above the body of Thursday's doji...closed above its 50 DMA for the fourth straight day...below 200 DMA...the price action of the past 8 days is consolidating between its 30 and 200 DMA and forming a pennant type price pattern.

Earnings Watch Thursday AMC/ Friday BMO Earnings Moving Up: CTSH, MEE

Thursday AMC/ Friday BMO Earnings Moving Down: CA, KLAC, LDK, CI, NYX, JAVA Stock Commentary

Coal stocks have shifted trend to down and are forming lower highs and lower lows
KOL and BTU broke out of bear flag patterns on Friday CNX broke support with a chart target of 59 MEE is still in a bear flag pattern...formed a shooting star type candle Ag-related stocks have also shifted trend to down and forming lower highs and lower lows POT broke out of a bear flag pattern AGU and MOS are at the support line of their bear flag pattern CF which is trending sideways is at resistance and has formed two spinning tops X which gapped on earnings on Tuesday is rolling over and broke the support of the top of its gap DECK just barely penetrated below 106 support...if the break holds chart target is 84 MA broke support hit and bounced off its 200 DMA forming a hammer candle SCHN broke below its bear flag pattern FSLR is in a sideways trend and broke below the low of the high day at resistance MON bounced down from resistance at its 30 DMA and is sitting on its 200 DMA DRYS in a narrow sideways trend bounced down from resistance and is near support NUE broke support...chart target is 49 BIDU has formed three spinning tops in a row and is holding above Tuesday's S1 support RIMM after three white soldiers has formed a dark cloud cover AAPL is in a five day pennant pattern NIHD is in a horizontal bull flag SINA is in a horizontal bull flag at its 50 DMA Friday’s Action Moving Up: ANR, SOHU, PCLN, MS, LEH, MEE, SINA, USO, NIHD Moving Down: X, DECK, MA, SCHN, CNX, MOS, FSLR, MON, DRYS, NUE, POT, BIDU, BTU, RIMM, CLF, IPI, AAPL, STRA, GS, CELG, IBM, V, MTL, CF, FWLT, BAM, AGU Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

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