Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Oil, Commodity, Financial Stocks Rebound...

DJIA + 68.88, +0.61% SP500 + 7.85, +0.62% NASDAQ Comp. + 4.72, +0.20% Russell 2000 + 1.57, +0.22% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,637 1,402 Declining 1,429 1,431 Oil $114.98 +$0.45 Gold $816.30 -$0.50 $SOX 362.67 +1.10 Strongest Sectors: XLE +2.89%...XLF +2.06%...XLB +1.75% Weakest Sectors: XLY -1.23%...XLI -0.80%...XLV -0.63% On Wednesday the broad markets, oil, commodity related stocks and financials were all higher. HPQ came with strong earnings after the close on Tuesday and led the DJIA higher on Wednesday gaining 5.65%. This helped lift tech stocks like AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, NVDA, DELL, KLAC, INTU and ADSK. Oil opened higher, fell and moved higher again to lead many oil stocks higher. Both CVX and XOM closed higher. This also gave a boost to coal stocks BTU, CNX, MEE, ANR and KOL. Ag-related stocks POT, MOS, CF and AGU were also higher as were steel stocks X, SCHN, NUE and STLD. Take note of the listed potential bottoming patterns on the Ags, coals and steels below in Down Trending stocks. Even though FNM and FRE closed down over 20%, the financials in general closed higher. BAC, JPM, AIG, AXP and C were big gainers in the DJIA. Financial sector ETF, XLF, rose 2.06%. Apparently today was Bullish Harami Index Day as you will read below...Did you ge the memo? Our short-term trend status is neutral. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV, XLY Sideways: XLB, XLF Down Trending: XLE, XLU

Index Commentary The DJIA formed a bullish harami and rose to its 30 DMA…closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the July 15 low. The SPX formed a bullish harami held above its 50 DMA and rose to its 20 DMA…also rose above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the July 15 low. The Nasdaq formed a bullish harami...above it 20, 30 and 50 DMA...below 200 DMA...closed just below the 23.6% Fibonacci level from the July 15 low.

The SOX formed inverted hammer bullish harami in 2-day bull flag pull back…closed at 50 DMA…trading above 20 and 30 DMA. The RUT formed bullish harami after three black crows…trading above 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA…closed nine straight days and 10 of the last 11 days above its 200 DMA. Stock Commentary Up Trending RIMM bounced from its doji with a support bounce that broke the high of the low day AAPL bounced with an inside day that did NOT close above the high of the low day AMZN formed a bullish harami following its three black crows NIHD formed an inverted hammer bullish harami pattern…still trading below neckline of the head and shoulders pattern…H&S target 46.50 ESRX formed a bearish engulfing pattern that closed below its 74 horizontal resistance area UAUA followed Tuesday’s bearish engulfing pattern with a close below the high day in what appears to be a bull flag pattern NDAQ formed a hammer after a two day bull flag…broke the high of the low day WRC formed a hammer and bullish harami…stayed above support of the potential double bottom ONXX moved lower in a bull flag pattern…closed near the August 14 S1 level HANS today formed a bullish engulfing like pattern on Tuesday’s inverted hammer…broke above the high of the low day in a bull flag pattern Down Trending POT move up in a counter trend move after Tuesday’s bullish engulfing potential head & shoulders bottom MOS moved higher after Tuesday’s bullish engulfing…potential double bottom X broke out of a small double bottom around 140…new chart target 150 FWLT broke high of low day potential double bottom breakout around 50.60 with chart target of 55.60 CNX small head & shoulders bottom breakout…chart target 75 AGU potential head & shoulders bottom breakout at 85…with a chart target of 97 SCHN potential double bottom breakout at 71.30…with a chart target of 77.30 BTU horizontal breakout…with chart target of 73…closed at 30 DMA Sideways Trending AMLN did NOT confirm hammer…closed below 50 DMA CF horizontal breakoutpotential chart target 151 FSLR 20, 30 and 50 DMA breakout…potential chart target 288 CLF broke horizontal resistance and 20 DMA…closed at 30 DMA Trend Reversal JASO broke through horizontal resistance and its 50 DMA…chart target 21.50 Wednesday’s Action Moving Up: FSLR, BIDU, CLF, CF, X, MON, MA, RIMM, CNX, MOS, FWLT, AGU, ANR, BTU, SCHN, POT, LDK, AAPL, HANS, IPI, BUCY, JASO, NUE, SINA, MEE, FMCN, PCLN, AMZN, WRC, NDAQ, LEH, V Moving Down: AMLN, UAUA, STRA, DECK, COH, MS, ESRX, ONXX, FNM, FRE Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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