Friday, January 15, 2010

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -4.25 and NQ -5.25 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AAPL +0.25, AMZN +0.47, GOOG +1.65 and BIDU -1.98 are mixed in pre-market trading. JPM profits higher, revenues lower than expected, stock down 56 cents in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 117 pips in overnight trading creating a short term reversal in the dollar. Oil is down 65 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 25 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 41 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 9 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX which it is not doing this morning. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. We may be seeing those signals for a potential pull back this morning. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Watch for support bounces today in the many bull flags that are in place on the charts. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145, 1,155, 1,170 Trading Down: INFY, RIMM, JOYG, AA Trading Up: DE, WHR, POT, TSL, UNP Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – AA – INFY – KO – SHLD – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – TSL – UNP – WHR –

Thursday, January 14, 2010

SPX, INDU and RUT New High Close...

DJIA 10,710.55 + 29.78 +0.28% SP500 1,148.46 + 2.78 +0.24% COMPQ 2,316.74 + 8.84 +0.38% Russell 2000 646.43 + 2.87 +0.45% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,732 1,574 Declining 1,300 1,113 Oil $79.35 -0.04 Gold $1,142.60 +6.20 SOX 356.96 -2.13 VIX 17.63 -0.22 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and did not confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.90%…XLF +0.46%...XLE +0.29% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.22%...XLU -0.45%...XLP -0.30% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Healthcare, Financials, Energy and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.24%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target The SPX, INDU and RUT made a new closing high on Thursday, while the COMPQ closed at its second highest close of the last 52 weeks. INTC reported better than expected earnings after the close and rose in after hours trading. Materials sector was the weakest sector and semiconductors were among the weaker industries. INTC’s better than expected earnings could lift semiconductor and other technology stocks on Friday. Many stocks broke out of horizontal resistance including BIDU, WYNN, INTC JBHT, CEDC, MA, MHS Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Many other stocks bounced off support including: BA, BKC, DE, GR, ICE, PCP, SPY, WFC, ZION Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Seaso Thursday saw many stocks breakout of resistance while others bounced off support. Watch for entry opportunities on bull flag bounces and resistance breakouts on Friday. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -1.22 QCOM -0.33 GOOG +2.76 BIDU +24.75 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BIDU, WYNN, AKAM, INTC, JBHT, ORCL, MSFT, GRMN, RIMM, RYAAY, CTXS, ADSK, YHOO, CA, CSCO, ESRX, HOLX, STX, CELG, NWSA, SBUX, XRAY, CHKP, GENZ, ISRG, INTU, AMAT, CHRW, BIIB, APOL, SYMC and GOOG. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, MA, DLB, DE, ALGT, GR, SYNA, AGU, PCP, TDG, X, UAUA, WHR, URE, USD, CBST, SNDK, AMED, WLT, CAM, GMCR, HANS, SWN, WAB, ESI, JEC, VAR, UYG, MOS, BUCY, ACN, DECK, USO, DOW, FAS, GS, BYI, IPI, CEDC, UNP, WFC, ZION, ATW, CHL, FLS, HEAT, CAT, BA, FCX, BAC, HLF, FUQI, K, MHS, PWRD, WMT, MCD, UNG, Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 BKC, ICE Moving Below 30 DMA = 7 AMD, AMX, CGA, GES, MON, POT, TSL, Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, HDB, MYGN, WCG, SPG, VPRT, GME, MELI, PCLN, FAZ,NFLX Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Higher Open...

BMO – ES +1.75 and NQ +1.75 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.45, AMZN +0.39, GOOG +0.90 and BIDU +5.12 are higher in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 15 pips in overnight trading creating a short term reversal in the dollar. Oil is unchanged in electronic trading. XLE is up 2 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 14 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 3 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX which it is not doing this morning. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. We may be seeing those signals for a potential pull back this morning. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Watch for support bounces today in the many bull flags that are in place on the charts. After the close look for earnings on INTC and JPM. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145, 1,155, 1,170 Trading Down: Trading Up: INFY, RIMM, JOYG, KO, AA Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – AA – INFY – KO – SHLD – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – TSL – UNP – WHR –

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

SPX Bounces After One Day Pull Back...

DJIA 10,680.77 + 53.51 +0.50% SP500 1,145.68 + 9.76 +0.83% COMPQ 2,307.90 + 25.59 +1.12% Russell 2000 643.56 + 8.06 +1.27% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,246 1,832 Declining 800 871 Oil $79.65 -1.14 Gold $1,136.40 +7.50 SOX 359.09 +5.64 VIX 17.85 -0.40 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +1.32%…XLB +1.17%...XLY +1.17% Weakest Sectors: XLE +0.37%...XLI +0.41%...XLP +0.71% All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Healthcare, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Utilities and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.83%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target As I stated in VC on Tuesday that traders that are going to sell because of disappointing earnings in AA would sell that day or Wednesday at the latest and then technical analysis would tell the story of buyers and sellers on the chart. After a one day sell off buyers stepped into AA and formed a bullish harami as the stock rose 46 cents or +2.96%. The INDU made a new closing high on Tuesday while the SPX, COMPQ and RUT closed near Monday’s high close. Many stocks bounced in their bull flag pattern. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Many other stocks formed hammers and or bull flags near support and are creating potential setups for Thursday including: ATI, TIE, FCX, CF, NEM, SPY, BA, CAT, X, ATI, WOR, STLD, BUCY, CREE, DE, DECK, DOW, FWLT, JOYG, PCP, SNDK, TSL Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season. Tuesday’s pull back turned into a support bounce in many stocks or other at support candle patterns on Wednesday. Watch for entry opportunities on bull flag bounces on Thursday. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.93 QCOM +0.21 GOOG -3.39 BIDU +52.99 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: BIDU, JOYG, NTAP, IACI, RIMM, ILMN, CTSH, FLEX, BRCM, SHLD, STX, HSIC, GRMN, SBUX, VRTX, WYNN, SIAL, WCRX, ERTS, CSCO, CA, MICC, EBAY, ADBE, INTC, URBN, MXIM, HOLX, SRCL, MRVL, INFY, CMCSA, BIIB, CTAS, CERN, BBBY, PDCO, HANS and AAPL. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, MA, DLB, DE, ALGT, TSL, GR, SYNA, AGU, PCP, MON, TDG, X, UAUA, WHR, URE, USD, CBST, GES, SNDK, AMED, WLT, CAM, GMCR, HANS, SWN, WAB, ESI, JEC, VAR, UYG, MOS, BUCY, ACN, DECK, USO, DOW, FAS, GS, AMX, BYI, IPI, CEDC, UNP, WFC, ZION, ATW, CHL, FLS, HEAT, CAT, BA, FCX, BAC, HLF, FUQI, POT, K, MHS, PWRD, WMT, MCD, CGA, UNG Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 AMD, CGA Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 BKC Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, HDB, ICE, MYGN, WCG, VPRT, GME, MELI, SPG, PCLN, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

Life is greener and BIDU is rockin’ the markets this morning… BMO – ES +2.50 and NQ +4.25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. LLTC reported better than expected earnings on Tuesday. AAPL +0.46, AMZN +0.65, GOOG -10.48 and BIDU +58.51 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 85 pips in overnight trading creating a short term reversal in the dollar. Oil is down 75 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 5 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 46 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 9 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX which it is not doing this morning. There is still a SPX 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. We may be seeing a support bounce this morning. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Watch support levels this morning for a bounce or potential break, especially if you are a short term trader. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145, 1,155, 1,170 Trading Down: Trading Up: INFY, AGU, X, RIMM, FWLT, DOW, BUCY Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – AA – INFY – KO – SHLD – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – TSL – UNP – WHR –

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

SPX Follows AA Lower After Lower Than Expected Earnings...

DJIA 10,627.26 - 36.73 -0.34% SP500 1,136.22 -10.76 -0.94% COMPQ 2,300.05 -30.10 -1.30% Russell 2000 635.50 - 8.49 -1.32% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 857 763 Declining 2,196 1,940 Oil $81.48 -1.04 Gold $1,128.90 -21.80 SOX 353.45 -13.17 VIX 18.25 +0.70 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLP +0.56%…XLU -0.42%...XLV -0.72% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.90%...XLE -1.44%...XLF -1.44% Just one of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.94%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target AA -1.93 or -11.06%, reported earnings below estimates after the close on Monday and provided the catalyst for profit taking on Tuesday. XLB -1.90%, was the weakest sector with AA leading the way and ATI, TIE, FCX, CF and NEM and other material stocks followed. INFY, +2.82 or +5.14%, reported EPS 8 cents better than expected before the open on Tuesday. Only 12 NDX stocks moved higher with ILMN +15.82% leading the way after releasing preliminary Q4 results. There are numerous bull flags setups including: SPY, BA, CAT, X, ATI, WOR, STLD, BUCY, CREE, DE, DECK, DOW, FWLT, JOYG, PCP, SNDK, TSL Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season. The potential for a pause or pull back which we saw in several stocks on Monday increased to the broad markets on Tuesday. Many stocks broke the low of the high day giving some short traders an exit signal. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for diagonal bull flag pull back setups to find support and present entry opportunities. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -2.39 QCOM -0.80 GOOG -10.63 BIDU -14.80 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include ILMN, INFY, LIFE, ORLY, CTSH, DELL, SHLD, SYMC, WYNN, ROST, CHKP, GILD, INTU, FAST, VRTX, HOLX, PCAR, PPDI, PAYX, YHOO, NIHD, CELG, ORCL, APOL, COST, TEVA, RYAAY, WCRX, MOSFT, URBN, ADP, XRAY and HANS. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, MA, DLB, DE, ALGT, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, AGU, MON, TDG, X, NIHD, URE, GES, USD, CBST, SNA, SNDK, MYGN, AMED, WLT, GMCR, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, ACN, DOW, DECK, FAS, USO, GS, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, HEAT, IPI, JOYG, CAT, FLS, FUQI, HLF, POT, K, MHS, PWRD, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BKC, MCD, UNG Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMD, BDX, CGA, EBAY, ICE Staying Below 30 DMA WCG, VPRT, GME, MELI, PCLN, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

AA and Futures Point to a Lower Open...

It's a Sea of Red this morning... SHLD is conditional on the pennant breakout and lower/cancel KO limit order on virtual trading...(KO order adjustment doesn't fill as KO opens slightly lower and then moves higher...we'll see if a pull back occurs from the early high...) BMO – ES -8.00 and NQ -11.50 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. AA -$1.36 or -7.79% in pre-market trading, came in below estimates after the close and is down more than the -5% in after-hours trading on Monday. AA is leading the INDU and market lower this morning. INFY, +$2.27 or +4.14% is up in pre-market, reported better than expected earnings and raised guidance. AAPL -1.75, AMZN -1.69, GOOG -4.89 and BIDU -7.57 are lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 24 pips in overnight trading creating a short term reversal in the dollar. Oil is down $1.27 in electronic trading. XLE is down 87 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 85 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 12 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX which it is not doing this morning. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. We may be seeing those signals for a potential pull back this morning that we have alerting you to look for each day. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. Watch support levels this morning especially if you are a short term trader. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145, 1,155, 1,170 Trading Down: AA, AGU, X, RIMM, POT, AKAM, FWLT, DOW, CREE, TSL, BUCY Trading Up: INFY Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – AA – INFY – X – KO - SHLD - AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – TSL – UNP – WHR –

Monday, January 11, 2010

INDU and SPX Rise...Nasdaq & RUT Move Lower...

DJIA 10,663.99 + 45.80 +0.43% SP500 1,146.98 + 2.00 +0.17% COMPQ 2,300.05 - 4.76 -0.21% Russell 2000 643.99 - 0.57 -0.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,811 1,326 Declining 1,226 1,381 Oil $83.05 +0.30 Gold $1,150.70 +12.50 SOX 366.62 -1.06 VIX 17.55 -0.58 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday reaching a 19 month closing low. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.09%…XLU +1.04%...XLV +0.57% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.54%...XLK -0.39%...XLY -0.20% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Industrials, Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX +0.17%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast; rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low 1,155 = chart target Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target The trend continues to rise although at a mixed pace over the past five days as evidenced again by the rise in INDU and SPX and the pause in the NASDAQ and RUT. Advancers and decliners were again near even. Selective moves have been the market theme for the past five days. X -3.69% in a very strong up trend for the past several weeks, formed a dark cloud cover and pulled back while CAT +6.28% which has been in consolidation for two and a half months broke above resistance on above average volume. These are just two of many examples over the past week illustrating the selective nature of each day’s move. Some stocks have big up moves and other stocks moving down. CAT, HEAT, CGA and DE had strong moves higher on Monday while MELI, UNG, X and WLT moved lower. AA reported below expectations after the close and moved down 5% in after-hours trading. INFY reports before the open on Tuesday. Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season. Be mindful of the potential for a pause or pull back which we saw in several stocks on Monday. Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -1.87 QCOM -0.18 GOOG -0.91 BIDU -3.70 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include LINTA, HSIC, VRTX, PDCO, LRCX, STX, AMAT, CEPH, MICC, PPDI, ILMN, PCAR, LOGI, GRMN, JBHT, XRAY, PCLN, SIAL, IACI, GILD, ISRG, PAYX, INTC, FISV, INFY, ORLY, ROST, INTIU, ADP, AMGN, EXPD, LIFE, DISH, CHRW, SHLD, CHKP and YHOO. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, MA, DLB, DE, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, AGU, MON, AMD, TDG, X, NTLS, NIHD, URE, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, SNDK, MYGN, AMED, CLB, WLT, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, ACN, DOW, DECK, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, HEAT, IPI, JOYG, CGA, CAT, FLS, FUQI, HLF, POT, DV, ICE, K, MHS, EBAY, PWRD Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 BKC, WCG, UNG Staying Below 30 DMA VPRT, GME, MELI, PCLN, MCD, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Higher Open...

10:30 am ET - X appears to be bouncing above S1 as SPY returns to positive...STX is having a nice support bounce this morning...JOYG is following Friday's breakout of a sideways trading range to the upside...ZION is holding above Thursday's S1 level....CAT and DE continue with strong moves this morning... 10:10 am ET - X, STLD and SPY after trading up early have reversed and turned negative...watch the S1 level on X as short term support...LRCX, CAT, DE and FCX are higher... BMO – ES +4.50 and NQ +4.25 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +0.90, AMZN -0.40, GOOG +1.97 and BIDU +2.38 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 145 pips in overnight trading creating a short term reversal in the dollar. Oil is up 80 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 60 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 47 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 14 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX which it is certainly doing this morning. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. While trading with the trend continue to watch for your signals for a potential pull back. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. It looks as if they SPX will break through its 1,145 resistance this morning. We expect the current intermediate term up trend to continue with both Earnings Season and Options expiration week currently being positive factors. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145, 1,155, 1,170 Trading Down: Trading Up: AGU, X, RIMM, POT, AKAM, LRCX, STLD, FWLT, DOW, CREE, TSL, BUCY Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – NFLX – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – CME – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – TSL – UNP – WHR –

Friday, January 8, 2010

SPX New High...VIX New Low...

DJIA 10,618.19 + 11.33 +0.11% SP500 1,144.98 + 3.29 +0.29% COMPQ 2,317.17 + 17.12 +0.74% Russell 2000 644.56 + 2.59 +0.40% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,851 1,691 Declining 1,177 1,000 Oil $83.25 +0.59 Gold $1,138.20 +5.10 SOX 367.68 +5.38 VIX 18.13 -0.93 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Friday was the lowest close in the VIX since May 13, 2008, a 19 month low. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLI +1.60%…XLB +1.39%...XLK +0.66% Weakest Sectors: XLF -0.59%...XLP -0.34%...XLU -0.10% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Industrials, Materials, Technology, and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.29%. SPX Chart Signals Target: 1,234 end of January. This is not a subjective forecast, rather it is the chart target price and time based on the mid July breakout at 950. This does not mean the market won't pull back. Technical analysis measuring techinques are not certainties. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target On Friday the SPX, COMPQ, RUT and INDU all closed at their highest level in over 15 months completing a strong first week of trading for 2010. The COMPQ led on Friday with a gain of +0.74% while the RUT led for the week up +3.1%. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Weekly Returns RUT +3.1% SPX +2.7% COMPQ +2.1% INDU +1.8% Major technology stocks AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and PCLN that have led the up trend for most of 2009 were weak this week and hit lows on Friday when buyers appeared with a support bounce in each of these stocks, which helped the COMPQ rally and lead the other broad indexes on Friday. AAPL +1.40 QCOM +0.49 GOOG +7.92 BIDU -0.36 Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Look for the intermediate term up trend to continue as we move into Earnings Season with AA reporting on Monday and Options Expiration this next Friday. Be mindful of the potential for a pause or pull back. Look at the Charts from our Stocks to Watch list: (click image to enlarge) You can see why we remind you almost each trading day to: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. XLF paused on Thursday after reaching a horizontal resistance level and pulled back slightly on Friday. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX trend following through to the upside. Look at these NDX Leading Charts… (click image to enlarge) NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GENZ, GRMN, FWLT, TEVA, LOGI, STLD, AMAT, JOYG, ESRX, ADSK, LBTYA, JBHT, CTSH, CTXS, AMZN, INTU, LRCX, CELG, SPLX, BIIB, PDCO, ERTS, ALRT, DISH, MICC, KLAC, XLNX, CHRW, GOOG, LLTC, ORCL, EBAY, ILMN, MRVL, SRCL, INTC, EXPD, CA, FAST, QCOM, CTAS, AMGN and DELL. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA CREE, DLB, DE, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, AGU, MON, TDG, X, NTLS, NIHD, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, SNDK, MYGN, AMED, CLB, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DOW, DECK, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, HEAT, IPI, JOYG, CGA, FLS, FUQI, HLF, DV, ICE, K, MHS Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 EBAY, PWRD Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA VPRT, GME, MELI, AMZN, PCLN, MCD, WMT, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

1:43 pm ET - I alerted you right after the open of the swing in X from negative in the pre-market to positive at the open...it is now up $4.40 with many option strikes up more than 100% for the day...I hope you had or took a position here and had a great day...our intermediate term real time virtual trade in 50 Apr 60 calls that we entered on Nov 18 at 1.06 is trading right now for a bid of 9.25 that is a gain of $8.19 or 713%...we also have 70 Feb 60 calls that we scaled into between Dec 28 to Dec 30 at an average cost of $2.153 that is trading at 7.50 bid which is a gain of 5.347 or 248%...since the trades are not closed these are unrealized gains at this time...these are great examples of what types of gains can be achieved when traders act on great chart signals...the chart signals opportunties before they happen if you know what you are looking for... 9:31 am ET - X just went from -0.31 in pre-market trading to positive +0.44 in regular trading... BMO – ES -3.25 and NQ -7.50 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. AAPL -0.52, AMZN +0.50, GOOG -2.83 and BIDU -3.93 are mostly lower in pre-market trading. The Euro is up 81 pips in overnight trading. Oil is down 25 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 31 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 35 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 2 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. While trading with the trend continue to watch for your signals for a potential pull back. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,145 Trading Down: X, RIMM, POT, AKAM, PCLN Trading Up: AGU At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – NFLX – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – CME – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – UNP – WHR –

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Financials and Industrials Lead SPX Higher...

DJIA 10,606.86 + 33.18 +0.31% SP500 1,141.69 + 4.55 +0.40% COMPQ 2,300.05 - 1.04 -0.05% Russell 2000 641.97 + 4.02 +0.63% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,883 1,598 Declining 1,187 1,139 Oil $82.66 -0.52 Gold $1,133.10 -2.80 SOX 362.30 -4.04 VIX 19.06 -0.10 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Thursday was again the lowest close in the VIX in more than 15 months. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.13%…XLI +1.09%...XLY +0.83% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.78%...XLU -0.45%...XLK -0.39% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.40%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Financial stocks led the market and SPX higher on Thursday with stocks like ZION, RF, FAS, PNC, KEY, BK, UYG, WFC, BAC, CB, ICE and XLF gaining between 2.13% to 11.20%. The SPX made a new 52-week high closing at 1,141.69 four points away from its short term chart target from Monday’s horizontal breakout. Earnings reporting season begins on Monday with AA reporting after the close and accelerates in the last two weeks of January with hundreds of major companies reporting. Next Friday is Options Expiration. Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue while being mindful of a pause or pull back. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside as evidenced by Thursday’s move. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.39 QCOM +1.38 GOOG -14.16 BIDU -7.87 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: SHLD, BBBY, GENZ, NIHD, ROST, QCOM, ESRX, PDCO, WYNN, CMCSA, ILMN, FAST, PAYX, JOYG, DTV, PCAR, XRAY, FWLT, SPLS, DELL, CTAS, WCRX, CERN, ADSK, KLAC, CA, IACI, GRMN, CSCO, DISH, MICC, JBHT, APOL, HSIC, FSLR, CEPH, LINTA and GILD. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, ORCL, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DECK, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, HDB, IPI, JOYG, CGA, FLS, FUQI, HLF, DV Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 ESRX, ICE, K, MHS Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 EBAY, GME, MELI, PWRD Staying Below 30 DMA AMZN, PCLN, MCD, WMT, FAZ, BIDU, GILD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open

BMO – ES -3.25 and NQ -4.50 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. AAPL +0.43, AMZN -0.50, GOOG +1.56 and BIDU +0.00 are mixed in pre-market trading. The Euro is down 91 pips in overnight trading. Oil is down 85 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 10 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 30 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 2 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. While trading with the trend continue to watch for your signals for a potential pull back. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,145 A number of stocks are quoting higher and lower but with no trading volume in the pre-market. We’ll just need to wait for more action closer to or at the open. Trading Down: X, RIMM Trading Up: POT, AKAM, NFLX Review the Charts from our Monday through Wednesday’s post. At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – NFLX – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – CME – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – UNP – WHR –

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

SPX is Flat as Materials, Energy and Healthcare Move Big...

DJIA 10,573.68 + 1.66 +0.02% SP500 1,137.14 + 0.62 +0.05% COMPQ 2,301.09 - 7.62 -0.33% Russell 2000 637.95 - 0.54 -0.08% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,824 1,218 Declining 1,211 1,496 Oil $82.82 +1.05 Gold $1,135.90 +17.80 SOX 366.34 -0.08 VIX 19.16 -0.19 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. Wednesday was again the lowest close in the VIX in more than 15 months. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.70%…XLE +1.20%...XLV +1.02% Weakest Sectors: XLK -1.12%...XLP -0.07%...XLY +0.13% Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Energy, Healthcare, Utilities, Industrials, Financials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.05%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Was it Wednesday or Tuesday all over again. Flat indexes two up, two down. Advancers and decliners almost the same as Tuesday. Strong sectors and weak sectors even thouugh only two sectors were lower. I find that very intriguing that seven out of nine sectors moved high but the SPX was up less than one point. It is not important but intriguing. There were some very strong stocks today and if you follow any of the webcasts and real time vitrual trades we have done you probably saw them move big. Big gainers included STLD, FAST, ILMN, CEDC, UNG, CGA, X, ATW, ESI, IPI, MOS, DECK and NFLX. Big losers included EXPE, PCLN, GOOG, AMED and ICE. On Wednesday GS upgraded SCHN and WOR from sell to neutral and raised their price target on X by $13 to $67. This helped lift SCHN +7.89%, WOR +20.53%, STLD +7.26% and X +4.44%. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue while being mindful of a pause or pull back. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -3.41 QCOM -0.47 GOOG -15.73 BIDU +6.60 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: STLD, FAST, ILMN, LBTYA, GILD, APOL, CELG, HANS, SHLD, FSLR, LIFE, NWSA, BIDU, ROST, GENZ, ISRG, BBBY, PCAR, COST, CERN, RYAAY, FWLT, MRVL, PAYX, XRAY, NVDA, CEPH, CHKP, HOLX, SYMC, HSIC, CTAS and TEVA. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, MELI, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, ORCL, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DECK, EBAY, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, GME, HDB, IPI, JOYG, CGA, FLS, FUQI, HLF, PWRD Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 DV Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 AMZN, ICE, PCLN Staying Below 30 DMA ESRX, MCD, WMT, K, FAZ, BIDU, GILD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Point to a Slightly Lower Open...

BMO – ES -3.00 and NQ -4.00 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. AAPL +0.02, AMZN +0.03, GOOG -0.99 and BIDU -2.90 are mixed in pre-market trading. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. The Euro is down 10 pips in overnight trading. Oil is down 30 cents in electronic trading. XLE is down 18 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is down 25 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is down 3 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,145 Trading Down: POT, X, RIMM, ICE Trading Up: CREE, CERN, CGA, FLIR, DOW Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – NFLX – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – CME – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – UNP – WHR –

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Stocks Start and End Tuesday Mixed...

DJIA 10,572.02 -11.94 -0.11% SP500 1,136.52 + 3.53 +0.31% COMPQ 2,308.71 + 0.29 +0.01% Russell 2000 638.49 - 1.61 -0.25% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,852 1,214 Declining 1,200 1,516 Oil $81.77 +0.26 Gold $1,118.10 +0.40 SOX 366.42 +0.34 VIX 19.35 -0.69 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. This was the lowest close in the VIX in more than 15 months. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.84%…XLE +0.82%...XLY +0.37% Weakest Sectors: XLU -1.19%...XLV -0.98%...XLK -0.13% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials were stronger than the SPX +0.31%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Tuesday was a mixed trading day almost every sense of the price action. In pre-market trading the futures were near even. The major NASDAQ stocks we look at were mixed. Our At the Open list stocks were mixed. At the close the INDU and RUT were down and SPX and NASDAQ were up, just barely. On the NYSE advancers led decliners and on the NASDAQ decliners led advancers. Stocks that were up like WYNN, FWLT, CERN, SHLD, NIHD, AKAM, ERTS, QCOM, SBUX, FUQI, FAS, JOSB, TSL, IPI, DECK, ALGT and PWRD were really up big. Stocks that were down like VRTX, GENZ, CHRW, STX, ESRX, NTAP, FAZ, ICE, NFLX, UNG, SLGN and ESI were really down big, relatively speaking. In the Sectors XLF had a strong day leading all sectors and XLU was certainly weak. So if you were in the right stocks like WYNN, FWLT, CERN, SHLD, FUQI and PWRD you had a big day. If you were in the wrong stocks you had a down day. It really was a mixed day. The SPX pushed to a slightly higher close on the strength of financial stocks with KEY, FAS, C, MS, ZION, RF, BAC, AFL, WFC, USB, MET and UYG all having big days. Monday Night Charts on WYNN, FWLT, NIHD and JOYG all big days on Tuesday on strong volume. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Check out these C Pattern Setup Charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue while being mindful of a pause or pull back. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Watch for horizontal breakout trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +0.37 QCOM +1.13 GOOG -2.76 BIDU -4.13 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: WYNN, FWLT, CERN, SHLD, NIHD, AKAM, ERTS, LINTA, QCOM, SBUX, DELL, IACI, FAST, MRVL, URBN, ROST, JOYG, PCAR, ADBE, NVDA, FSLR, MICC, PCLN, CTSH, VRSN, YHOO, EXPD, AMZN, DTV, EXPE, FISV, INFY, HANS, NWSA, JBHT, GRMN and FLIR. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, ORCL, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ICE, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DECK, EBAY, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM, ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, GME, HDB, IPI, JOYG Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 AMZN, CGA, FLS, FUQI, HLF, PWRD Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 DV, ESRX, MCD, WMT Staying Below 30 DMA K, FAZ, BIDU, GILD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Flat Opening...

BMO – ES +0.25 and NQ -1.75 futures are mixed in pre-market trading pointing to a flat open. AAPL +0.06, AMZN -0.10, GOOG +0.25 and BIDU +0.25 are mixed in pre-market trading. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important than time. The Euro is up 2 pips in overnight trading. Oil is down 12 cents in electronic trading. XLE is up 9 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is unchanged in pre-market trading. XLF is down 2 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133, 1,145 Trading Down: Trading Up: POT, CREE, X, RIMM, BUCY, CAT, AGU Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AAPL – AKAM – AMZN – CREE – KLAC – LRCX – NVDA – RIMM – BUCY – DECK – FLIR – FWLT – ISRG – NFLX – PCLN – STLD – UAUA – ACN – AGU – AMD – CAT – CME – DE – DOW – ICE – MA – PCP – POT – UNP – WHR –

Monday, January 4, 2010

A New High By the Not So Little Trend That Could...

DJIA 10,583.96 +155.91 +1.50% SP500 1,132.99 +17.89 +1.60% COMPQ 2,308.42 +39.27 +1.73% Russell 2000 640.10 + 8.02 +2.35% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,476 2,175 Declining 600 595 Oil $81.50 +2.14 Gold $1,117.70 +22.50 SOX 366.08 +6.17 VIX 20.04 -1.64 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. The SOX moved up and did confirm the move up in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLE +3.16%…XLB +3.12%...XLF +2.01% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.19%...XLP +0.76%...XLY +0.77% All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Energy, Materials, Financials, Industrials and Healthcare were stronger than the SPX +1.60%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low 1,145 = 1,133 BO chart target – Dec 31 Low Key Support Levels 1,119 = December High 1,105 - 1,113 = November High 1,101 = October High 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target After a dramatic 2009, Monday Jan 4, 2010 produced a gap that didn’t fade. Asian and European buyers moved the futures higher over night, The SPX and other indexes opened higher as a result and did not have a common fade opportunity as the SPX header higher all day. It did slow down once it reached 1,133 resistance shortly before noon ET, and then moved sideways in a narrow trading range of just three points, closing at 1,132.99, less than a point below its intra-day high of 1,133.87. In addition to the broad indexes, the SOX and several sector ETFs XLE, XLB, XLF, XLI and XLV also had very strong moves on the first trading day of 2010. We pointed out to you in Thursday’s post not to let the last 25 minute sell off on Thursday distract you from the trend. You can see that there really is a difference between price fluctuation and trend change. And today the trend continued with some very nice rewards. The RUT and COMPQ broke to new highs with new chart targets while the SPX and INDU paused near their horizontal resistance areas. Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) WYNN and FWLT had a strong support bounce NIHD had a strong resistance breakout JOYG is poised for a diagonal breakout Check out these charts: (click image to enlarge) Guidance: Stay with your up trending positions. Continue to raise your stops. Look for the intermediate term trend to continue while being mindful of a pause or pull back. XLF continues to be the key to the SPX breakout following through to the upside. Stay with trends that have broken above resistance. Monday provided many re-entries on bull flag trend continuation moves. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +3.28 QCOM +0.68 GOOG +6.77 BIDU -1.20 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: WYNN, JOYG, NIHD, MICC, GRMN, FWLT, RYAAY, LOGI, STX, VRTX, CTSH, STLD, CSCO, HOLX, TEVA, PDCO, CTXS, LINTA, SYMC, INFY, AMAT, PCLN, JBHT, BRCM, ESRX, CA, INTC, HANS, AKAM, ERTS, CERN, KLAC, VRSN, AMGN, DISH and FISV. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA DLB, WCG, ALGT, BDX, TSL, AFAM, GR, SYNA, MELI, PCLN, PCP, MON, TDG, X, BIIB, NTLS, NIHD, VPRT, URE, BLUD, GES, USD, BKC, CBST, SNA, FSLR, MYGN, RIMM, AMED, CLB, DV, ORCL, GMCR, UNG, HANS, SWN, CAM, MHS, CTSH, WAB, ESI, ICE, JEC, MOS, UYG, VAR, AMZN, AAPL, JOSB, ACN, DECK, EBAY, SLGN, FAS, USO, GS, JCOM Moving Above 30 DMA = 12 ATW, AMX, BYI, CHL, CEDC, ESRX, GME, HDB, IPI, JOYG, MCD, WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 K Staying Below 30 DMA CGA, FAZ, HLF, BIDU, GILD, PWRD, FLS, FUQI Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open for 2010...

2:10 pm ET - The 1,133 area is acting as horizontal resistance on Monday...we have pointed out this number for months...it is the Sep 18, 2008 support low that was broken decisively on Oct 3, 2008...no surprises about today's pause...the question of course is: How long will it pause here or will it need to pull back first before it breaks completely through? We'll be watching the charts for the answer.
(click image to enlarge)
12:00 pm ET - DECK is bouncing from Thursday's pull back following its horizontal breakout on Wednesday...breakout chart target is 111.95 as stated in our Dec 30 post... 11:00 am ET - SPX breaks out hits 1,132.21...short term chart target from last Thursday's bull flag pull back is 1,145.95... 10:50 am ET - NIHD and BUCY are breaking out this morning...JOYG and CAT support bounces 10:40 am ET - STLD which has been bouncing like X this morning is on the resistance edge of a breakout...SNDA which bounced on its 30 DMA on Wednesday is breaking out this morning... 10:20 am ET - a support bounce in X this morning is being followed by a bounce in PCLN which is close to breaking the high of the low day...SOX is breaking out to new highs this morning...KLAC, LRCX, BRCM, SNDK and INTC are having nice moves this morning... 10:05 am ET - If you have not read and re-read the January 1 post that was completed over the weekend...I would suggest you read it this morning including the link to January 31, 2009...it has the potential to improve your thinking and trading starting today... X marks the spot as the saying goes...I hope Mr. Market is pouring some money in your account this morning! 10:00 am ET - Here is a post in the January 1, 2010 Comment section posted early this morning...Maybe the person who posted will identify themselves in the Comment Section today, but I thought more of you might like to give this consideration so I am posting it here where everyone is more likely to see it... Anonymous said... TO EVERYONE, I would like to suggest that this year we all add more comments to Dave's blog page whenever we can. It is of tremendous benefit that we can all see what we are doing/thinking and I think it is a way that Dave can get some feedback and receive some energy from us for all that he does! January 4, 2010 6:05 AM 9:50 am ET - the SPX is +14.30 forming a large white candle and pushing for last week's high of 1,130.38 reached on both Monday and Tuesday....Trendship has it privileges! BMO – ES +9.25 and NQ +23.50 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. AAPL +2.14, AMZN +1.78, GOOG +6.81 and BIDU +4.03 are higher in pre-market trading. There is still a 1,234 chart target for the end of January, we’ll watch closely to see if the time frame is realistic or will need adjustment. Remember direction and price target are more important and time. The Euro is up 114 pips in overnight trading. Oil is up $1.95 in electronic trading. XLE is up 93 cents in pre-market trading. SPY is up 95 cents in pre-market trading. XLF is up 11 cents in pre-market trading. Continue to watch XLF as a key to sustain the breakout in the SPX. Follow your rules in any trading actions today. Be logical. SPX Support = 1,106 - 1,117 Resistance = 1,125 – 1,133 Trading Down: Trading Up: POT, AMZN, FCX, CREE, X, RIMM, BUCY Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – FAS – X – AMZN – RIMM – DOW – UAUA – MA – BUCY – NVDA – LRCX – WHR – AAPL – AKAM – AMD – CREE – KLAC – PCLN – DECK – NFLX – ISRG – FLIR – CAT – DE – PCP – UNP – STLD – POT – AGU – ACN – ICE – CME –

Friday, January 1, 2010

It's 2010...Time to Trade the Trend...I Dare You...

Happy 2010! A New Year and a New Decade! I regularly receive emails, cards and letters from individuals who tell me that what I teach and how I teach makes a difference in their life and in their trading. Here are two that I received just before Christmas that I would like to share: Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for all of your guidance and support throughout the year. It has been the best year of trading for me by far because of your education on all aspects of trading. “I couldn’t imagine having a better mentor than you. I am always amazed and impressed by your dedication, consistency, and ability to educate your students. “You have truly had an enormous impact on my life. Thank you.” RY What a tremendous year this has been for us— “R____ and I feel so blessed and honored to have been in your tutelage for most of the past year! Because of you, both of our trading careers have improved ten fold!! “Thank you for being the most generous and knowledgeable instructor we have ever met.” LF Even though both of these individuals graciously acknowledge the contribution of “a darn good looking” :) teacher, the major reason that they found success is because they actually DID what they learned. Many of you have seen me instruct workshop participants to write down in their notes that their responsibility is to LISTEN and DO. In other words, a teacher can teach until the cows come home, until a blue moon occurs or until he is blue in the face, but it is when and only when the trader does what they have been taught that they get the results. In both these cases these traders did it. They took action. They followed rules. They made it happen. Congratulations! If you want to have a great 2010 please read on The SPX rose from 903.25 on Dec 31, 2008 to 1,115.13 on Dec 31, 2009. This was an increase of 23.45%. I think most market commentators were surprised by the gain in 2009. In fact if you go back and read what many were saying at the end of January you would have to conclude not only did many not forecast a double digit rise, many were looking for a down year, citing the January Barometer. I don’t like the January Barometer! Why? Because I believe it, other statistics and clichés are myopic and highly misleading to investors and traders. This is not a new found opinion, just read what I wrote on Jan 31, 2009 by clicking here: http://chartsignals.blogspot.com/2009_01_01_archive.html As a matter of fact, just go ahead and PRINT the Jan 31, 2009 post and post it by your computer as a constant reminder of what really is important. When something is misleading it generally costs trader's money in lost principle, lost profits or both. I do what I do to help traders and investors make money, not lose money. Why? Because over the past 30 plus years I’ve found that people can lose money on their own just fine. They don’t need a professional to help them lose money. I believe that traders turn to professionals to help them do better, not to do as bad, or worse than they can do on their own. Unfortunately, there are too many who share their myopic but clever sounding opinions to ultimate disappointment of many traders. Dave’s Insight: Most people lose money on their own just fine. They don’t need professional help to lose money. Most of you know that I have been teaching for years that the trend is the most important technical factor in trading and that anything like the January Barometer, clichés or opinions that distract you from trading the trend can be harmful to your wealth. So do yourself a favor in 2010, trade the trend. While many were surprised by the 23.45% SPX return in 2009 there was actually a 35% or a one out of three probability based the prior 20 years (1989 -2008) that a 20%+ return could occur. If you round up the 1999 SPX return to 20% that probability increases to 40%. SPX Returns 1989 +27.25% 1991 +26.31% 1995 +34.11% 1995 +20.26% 1997 +31.01% 1998 +26.67% 1999 +19.53% 2003 +26.38% Here’s is the really important part. You didn’t need to have any idea that the probabilities were actually 40% for a 20% plus return if you would have simply traded the trend as I emphatically encouraged you to do on Jan 31, 2009. Here’s the good news for 2010You still don’t have to have any idea in the world what the SPX return for the upcoming year will be if you just trade the trend. Dave’s Insight: To trade profitably focus on trend, support and resistance and momentum. Dave's Insight: To improve your trade thinking...Stop reading and listening to people who distract you from the trend. Oh, by the way in case you didn’t know there were 72 stocks that finished the year between $25 and $250 and had one million shares or more average volume during the past 30 days that rose by 100% plus in 2009. If you include stocks less than $25 and more than $250 and/or with trading volume less than one million shares the number with 100% gains in 2009 is even higher. Here are the Top 25 Stocks* between $25 - $250 with one million plus average volume and their return for 2009. How many of these stocks did you trade this past year? It would surprise me if you didn't trade at least one on this list. Top 25 Stocks in 2009* Stock Return HGSI 1,342% RINO 690% TCK 610% TSL 480% DNDN 473% IOC 458% CSIQ 346% WLT 335% OSK 316% WDC 285% JCG 266% CREE 255% GFA 253% FCX 228% GMCR 215% EXPE 212% MEE 208% BUCY 205% SNDK 201% PXD 198% JWN 190% WFMI 190% GES 179% MWV 170% ANR 167% I Dare YOU to make a Commitment to yourself to Trade the Trend in 2010! Best of Success in 2010...Dave