Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Fed Raises Rate 1/4% as Expected...SPX Gets 100 Points Volatile...

After the Close Review of Wednesday’s market action… $SPX, $VIX, $INDY, AAPL, UNH, V, IWM, SPY, XLE, RRC, MRO, NFX, NBL, HP, APC, APA, HES, DVN, DIA, QQQ, DIA, ADBE, AMZN, SPY, $VIX, IWM, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ADSK, MCHP, ADBE, INTC, AMAN, NFLX, NVDA, more great setups …10:52 pm PST
© 2018

The SPX was at 2,727 just before the Fed announcementAfter the announcement the SPX went up, down, up, down, up and down, traversing 100 points in the last two hours of trading before finishing at 2,711, down 16 points from 2,727  and down just 5 points from Tuesday’s close at 2,716It was classic post-Fed volatility.

The DJIA, closed down 45 points to 24,682, led by weakness in AAPL, UNH and V. 

Three sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by energy XLE +2.62%, and materials XLB +1.13%.

SPY down .52 at 270.43 on 78.6 million shares, 32% below average volume.  Down on higher volume.
VIX down .34 at 17.86
Oil up 1.75 to 65.49
TLT up .13 at 119.08 on 9.7 million shares.

CVX +2.22%, and GE +1.76%, led the DJIA, 12 advancers.
RRC +7.62%, MRO +6.95% and NFX +5.98%, led the SPX.
AMAT +2.62%, LRCX +2.35% and BMRN+2.16% led the NDX.

Intermediate and long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up: IWM,
Down: SPY, DIA, QQQ,

Breadth strengthened on Wednesday, as advancers led 1,664 to 1,229 on the NYSE and led 1,723 to 1,134 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line turned down at 70.3, defensive. 

Uptrend sectors:  XLK,
Neutral sectors: XLY, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLRE,
Down trend sectors: XLP, XLU,

Intermediate-term trending stocks:  Many of these stocks have had significant pull backs over the past month and it is appropriate to wait for the uptrend to resume before considering entry… ADBE, MU, SQ, RNG, IBKR, SHOP, BA, NVDA, RACE, VRSN, ATVI, WB, V, ANET, ISRG, TAL, EA, EBAY, LYV, CAT, MAR, ALGN, CCL, RCL, TRU, WYN, PYPL, A, AABA, BABA, FCAU,  FB, CBOE, TTWO, WYNN, AA, WUBA, EDU, CC,

38 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

57 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2                            

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

The intermediate and long-term trends are still up.  The two-month trend is sideways.  The seven-day trend is sideways.

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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snp said...

i find value in keeping a daily watch of the vix--x chart. it forms a reliable series of descending triangles (bull flags if you will) on a 6-10ish week basis. the compression of these triangles, with consolidation underneath but daily tags of the trendline is normal but also worth noting. almost every break out on this chart gives this consolidation warning before the market starts down, esp. after a divergent high. its simply worthy of drawing the trendline on the daily and checking it.

a watchful eye on this chart portended the 12% correction in two ways: the normal 8-10 day flag consolidation pattern just before the market top, and the long term compression triangle starting in sept 2015. that longer term triangle portended a large move in the vix. the chart gave plenty of warning in the days preceeding, and anytime the etf vxx is going up with the market is a tertiary warning. the vxx was off its lows january 16. few heeded the warning but there was plenty of time. i read many who were calling for higher, and many who said the drop "came out of nowhere". not so.

snp said...

intc is extremely divergent in rsi. warning. the last time it was this divergent was the end of 2015. it went from 38 to 24, a drop of 33%. a stock cannot go higher with lower rsi forever.

snp said...

consolidation on vix--x played out today

snp said...

a good example of how divergence plays out is BA. you can see 371 is triple divergent in rsi to the peak in rsi. price cannot go higher forever with lower rsi. also, run a fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low upward and just line it up to the consolidation areas. it yielded 370 as a strong level. combined with the triple divergence, it was doomed, tariffs or not. charts often dictate the news, or at least price action, and then the news looks for an excuse. BA is likely headed to 298 at some point in this decline. its a 236 decline and price support is there. i expect intc to suffer a similar fate.