Thursday, March 22, 2018

DIA Breaks Support...SPY, QQQ at Support...IWM Above...





© 2018



The DJIA, closed down 724 points to 23,957, led by weakness in BA, MMM, GS, CAT, UNH, JPM, IBM, JNJ, CVX, AXP and V

One sector was higher on Thursday, utilities XLU +0.44%, and materials XLB +1.13%.



KO -0.56%, and PG -0.82%, led the DJIA, 0 advancers.


Intermediate and long term up trend intact.  3-day short term trend is down.

Up:
Down: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA


Breadth weakened on Thursday, as decliners led 2,398 to 531  on the NYSE and led 2,330 to 574 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line turned down at 64, defensive

Uptrend sectorsXLK, XLRE,
Neutral sectors: XLY, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLU,
Down trend sectors: XLP,

Intermediate-term trending stocks:  Many of these stocks have had significant pull backs over the past month and it is appropriate to wait for the uptrend to resume before considering entry… ADBE, MU, SQ, RNG, IBKR, SHOP, BA, NVDA, RACE, VRSN, ATVI, WB, V, ANET, ISRG, TAL, EA, EBAY, LYV, CAT, MAR, ALGN, CCL, RCL, TRU, WYN, PYPL, A, AABA, BABA, FCAU,  FB, CBOE, TTWO, WYNN, AA, WUBA, EDU, CC,


1 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.


27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0                            
 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 30
AAL, ADP, BIDU, BMRN, CA, CSCO, CSX, CTAS, CTSH, EA, EXPE, FAST, FISV, FOXA, INCY, ISRG, JBHT, KLAC, MAR, MXIM, NTES, NVDA, PAYX, PYPL, REGN, SIRI, SWKS, TMUS, TXN, VRTX,


The intermediate and long-term trends are still up.  The three-month trend is sideways.  The eight-day trend is down.

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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6 comments:

snp said...

there is still hourly divergence spy even at 259. none daily.

snp said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
snp said...

just a thought:
market bottoms only sometimes provide divergence in rsi. sometimes they just reverse with a simple pivot. im talking daily charts. in looking for some clue of divergence for a bottom here, if the market puts in a lower low to feb 9, at this rate of fall when it arrives rsi will NOT be divergent to the feb 9 low. thats a problem.

the way i see it is this pivot will only be divergent to itself, not to the feb 9 pivot. to do this, it will have to put in a dead cat bounce significant enough to create a reversal and higher rsi. then if it falls to a lower low, with a higher or equal rsi, that will be the buy signal. a close below the 200dma and reversal would be a perfect bear trap. im watching for that.

either way the bottom will come, and i am making my list of stocks to buy early next week. the bounce will be good, maybe a short squeeze. for stocks like adbe and ba the lesson here is do not chase at highs. look at the buying opportunity there will be next week on some positive divergent stocks (fb?). even if the rally only tags the 20dma on the daily, its a significant gain.

in light of the depth of this drop and 2470 looming below as probably the bottom to this wave, it appears there may be one more leg down after a good rally.

another clue to this drop was the bearish rising wedge pattern seen on the daily charts of both spy and qqq from feb 9 to march 16. once a wedge breaks lower, it has the potential to drop the distance of the open end vertical line of the wedge. that was 220 points spx. that would equate to 2580 on this drop. just. below. 200dma. hmmm.

another measure to find the bottom might be an equal measured move from 2870 to 2532. that was about 350 pts. and would equate to 2434. markets love symmetry and that was an inside bar pattern. i dont anticipate 2434, but prefer eventually to see 2470. all things to watch.

snp said...

reasons for long fb at 155:
unfilled gap, 2 months price support shelf, lowest daily rsi in 2 years, strong divergence hourly chart, lowest monthly rsi ever, already 11% below 20dma (most ever), bullish falling wedge pattern, lots of short interest for a squeeze. very likely a $9 repeat of march 20. fade the news.
do you think anyone is really going to stop using fb? 175 is possible in 3-5 days with a market bounce.

snp said...

there is a major trend line on spx from the 1810 low thru the bottom of the feb low to the price close friday. could be support. i would expect a pierce, as in a gap down open to post a doji by end of day.

snp said...

really nice snap back rally as expected. 2.5%.