Tuesday, September 8, 2015

SPX Rallies...Trend Continues to Stabilze as VIX First Close Below 25 Since Aug 20...

All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday… XLK, XLV, XLI were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector…all sectors rose 2.00 or more except for XLE.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.76 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.41 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – Closed for Labor Day
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led

SPY up 4.84 at 197.43 on 115.8 million shares
VIX down 2.90 at 24.90…
TNX up .66 at 21.94…
TLT down 1.81 at 120.87…on 7 million shares
XLF up .58 at 23.23…on 40.3 million shares

AAPL up 3.04 at 1112.31 on 54.5 million shares
FB up 1.27 at 89.53 on 26.9 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM +2.29%, DIA +2.45%, SPY + 2.51%, QQQ +2.82%.

The SPX +48.19 produced its eighth 40+ point range day in the last thirteen trading sessions.  Even though the SPX and SPY failed to move back to their Aug 28 high they closed near the high of day and VIX made its lowest close 24.90 since Aug 20.  Closing below 25 is an indication that the SPX is one step closer to stability and a resumption on an uptrend. 

Remember that the price action of the SPX and its 500 components is the cause and the VIX is the effect.  The VIX measures volatility, it is not the cause of volatility.  The VIX is like the gas gauge in your car; it shows you were the gas level is at but does not cause the gas in the tank to decrease, your driving is the cause.  Keeping that in mind the VIX indicates that fear is falling and buying is coming back into stocks.  As buying returns the uptrend resumes.

A quick look at the VIX over the past three plus years clearly shows that the VIX does not maintain a sub 25 level for more than a few days without falling.
                  (click image to enlarge)

QQQ, INTC, NVDA and NKE are four of many charts that are poised to move higher.
                   (click image to enlarge)

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY =...199.13
QQQ = 105.61
IWM = 115.70…

Support Levels
SPY = 190.73, 188.37...
QQQ = 100.49, 99.29
IWM = 111.60, 109.42...


The SPX Market Forecast turned up on Tuesday at 29.

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: LNKD, VSLR, INTC, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, NKE
Diagonal Breakout: SONC, SWKS, V, VRSN, KKD, AAPL
Bull Flag: UBNT
At Support: QIHU

Moves
New Highs: TPX,
H Breakout: DAL, NCLH, P, SCHW, JUNO, MTW, XONE, ADBE, BRCM, MAR, PCLN, TXN, XLNX, ADI, AVGO, CAVM, NXPI, ON, SNDK, DIS
D Breakout: BX, CRM, ETFC, EXPE, PANW, SCHW, ZION, AMZN, CELG, GILD, GRMN, TSLA, WYNN
Bounce: AIG, C, CYBR, FSLR, HOG, MBLY, NKE, NTES, SHAK, SINA, SPLK, YOKU, ANGI, CAR, CREE, DDD, EMC, FEYE, IBM, JNPR, MFRM, SCSS, SPWR, SSYS, SWI, ADSK, GILD, GOOGL, ILMN, MNST, NTAP, ROST, STX, SWKS, WDC,
Gap Up: IWM, SPY, QQQ, AXTA, BAC, BBY, CCL, CRM, ETFC, FAS, FIT, MS, RCL, SCHW, STI, SVXY, TSL, W, GIMO, GLW, TAN, AVGO, CMCSA, EA, LRCX, MSFT, PCLN, WBA
Support Break: YHOO,  


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Watch List Stocks
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday: FIT, TPX, YOKU, SVXY, SUNE, ETFC, FAS, SCHW, W, TSL, CRM, SWKS, BX, FSLR, SPLK, NTES, CYRE, SINA, CCL, P, RCL, BAC, MS, JCP, SHAK,BBY,MBLY, TBT, EXPE, MCLH, STI, QQQ, TASR, DAL, PANW, SPY, ZION, RPD, IWM, SUM, UA,C SCTY, AIG, JUNO, OCN, XONE, FEYE, SPWR, DDD, CREE, SSYS, GIMO, CAR, SFUN, TAN KNDI, MTW, ANGI, LC, GLW, MFRM,ATI, SWI, CSIQ, KWEB, IBM, ESI, AA, EMC,DAVE, KKD, HPQ, VSLR
                                                       
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: VXX, BABA, QIHU, LITE, DGLY, TWTR, UPL

97 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: REGN, NXPI, ADI, XLNX, AVGO, SNDK, SWKS, AMGN, LLTC, JD

Lagging NDX stocks included: NFLX, YHOO, EBAY

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 17
AVGO, BBBY, BRCM, CHRW, EXPD, LLTC, NTAP, SPLS, SRCL, VRTX, XLNX, ADI, WDC, LMCA, NXPI, MAR, LRCX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0



6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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