Friday, September 4, 2015

Futures Fall and Jobs Report Sellers Push SPX to 1,911...Buyers Appear SPX Closes 1,921...

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday… XLY, XLV, XLU were the strongest sectors while XLF was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 3.19 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.55 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 2.96 at 192.59 on 207 million shares
VIX up 2.19 at 27.80…
TNX down .40 at 21.28…
TLT up 1.11 at 122.68…on 27.3 million shares
XLF down .46 at 22.65…on 44 million shares

AAPL down 1.10 at 109.27 on 49.9 million shares
FB down .11 at 88.26 on 27.3 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM -0.76%, QQQ -1.19%, SPY -1.51%, DIA -1.65%.

ES futures moved over 20 points lower on Thursday night and dropped to 1,910 after the August Jobs Report showed about 50,000 fewer jobs created than forecastAfter the market open the SPX traded in a range between 1,911 and 1,932 before closing down -29.91 at 1,921.22.

Since the Monday, August 24 1,867 SPX low, buyers have continued to come in above that level.  On Tuesday, buyers took over at 1,903 and on Friday at 1,911.  Low, higher low, higher low in its current triangle consolidation.

The August 24 low continues to look like a capitulation low and this week’s support levels support that view.

VIX which closed at 40.74 on Aug 24, a level not seen since the Aug – Oct 2011 Euro crisis and Japanese Yen devaluation.  The high VIX has kept the SPX in a volatile range the past two weeks.  However this week’s 83 point range was down from the 126 range last week.  A contracting trading range, a lower high and lower low on the weekly VIX chart and the VIX close of 27.80, indicate that fear is contracting and a more positive trading week may be ahead.

If you have been thinking about positions in FIT, SHOP, AMBA or PYPL, they are near their three-month lows on Friday.
                    (click image to enlarge)

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY =...199.13
QQQ = 105.61
IWM = 115.70…

Support Levels
SPY = 190.73, 188.37...
QQQ = 100.49, 99.29
IWM = 111.60, 109.42...


The SPX Market Forecast is turned down at 29.

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: CCL, FSLR, LVS, NCLH, P, PYPL, RCL, SCTY, SUM, TASR, UA, UBNT, BBY, AVGO, EA, MU, WBA,
Diagonal Breakout: QQQ, IWM, ETSY, RPD, SEDG, SHOP, W, FB, MAR, SBUX, SWKS,
Bull Flag: RUN, ANGI, INTC,
Potential Bullish Divergence: AMBA, FIT, GPRO, MBLY, YOKU, JD, NFLX

Moves
New Highs: JCP
Bull Flag Bounce: VXX

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Watch List Stocks
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: VXX, IMGN
                                                       
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FAS, GPRO, SINA, YOKU, BABA, QIHU, FIT, SOHU, CTRP, PYPL, FSLR, SPLK, UNG, C, AIG, SCHW, TSL, SEDG, RPD

15 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, DLTR, MU, MYL, EA, VIAB, PCLN, VRTX

Lagging NDX stocks included: JD, TRIP, YHOO, VIP, LRCX, XLNX, KLAC, STX, EXPD, SNDK,  NVDA, SWKS

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
ALTR

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AVGO, BRCM, CHRW, EXPD, LMCA, LVNTA, NTAP, SRCL, WDC


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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