Seven of nine sectors
moved lower on Friday…XLU, XLP, and XLV were the strongest sectors
while XLK was the
weakest.
Breadth strengthened…decliners
led advancers…3.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.77 to 1 on the
NASDAQ.
Friday – strengthened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday –
strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY down 2.20 at 190.54 on 221.9 million shares, double average volume
VIX up 2.48 at 21.24…
TNX down .20 at 23.07…
TLT up 1.18 at 120.05...
XLF down .18 at 22.58 on 89.4 million shares, double average volume
AAPL down .29 at 100.73 on 66.3 million shares
FB down 3.00 at 72.91…on 52.1 million shares, above average volume
Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.68%, SPY
-1.14%, IWM -1.22%, QQQ
-2.50%.
Tech stocks open lower
and declined all day on Friday. The
broader market SPX and DJIA held in
moderate range until about 12:30 when they started selling off into the
close. By the end of the day all the
broad indexes were lower, however the NDX
was twice as weak as the SPX
and RUT.
(click image to enlarge)
Utilities XLU and
Consumer Staples XLP moved higher on
Friday. KO +1.37%, PG +1.23%, PEP +1.15%,
MO, CVS, WMT, PM and COST all moved higher on Friday.
MCHP -5.58, -12.26%, announced Thursday after
the close that its Q2 net sales will be about $546.2 million which is lower
than guidance on July 30 of $560 million to $575.9 million. MCHP
has 200.4 million shares outstanding so the $5.58 drop in price equates to a $1.118
billion drop in market capitalization.
That is certainly efficient according to some people, sales about $30
million less than expected and the company is now worth a billion dollars less. Go figure.
It wouldn’t be a big
deal if that is all that happened. It
didn’t stop there, however as most semiconductor stocks are guilty by
association and the whole industry dropped including NXPI -12.43%, AVGO -11.46%,
SWKS -9.99%, LRCX -9.16%, XLNX
-8.36%, KLAC -7.58%,
TXN -7.13%, MXIM -6.28%,
BRCM -5.46%, INTC -5.09% and
SNDK -4.36%.
INTC -1.71, -5.09% with 4.951 billion shares
outstanding shed $8.46 billion of market cap even though it releases
earnings Tuesday after the close. Since
INTC is the largest semiconductor company in the world, it is considered a
bellwether for the technology sector. As
a result the market will be looking be not only at its revenues and earnings
but also its guidance looking forward.
MU -2.85, -9.30% which released better
than expected results on Sept. 25, with 1.070 billion shares outstanding shed
$3.05 billion of market cap.
The semiconductor
industry collectively lost tens of billions of dollars of market cap on Friday
due to the MCHP lower guidance of
about $30 million. That makes total
sense (or not) and deepens one’s sense that markets may not be as efficient
as some purport, but that prices are driven by imbalances in supply and demand.
Earnings announcements pick up in earnest on Tuesday with C,
INTC, JNJ, JPM and WFC among others.
Let the games begin...
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading
and continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 193.21, 194.05, 194.88...
QQQ = 96.08, 97.10, 98.76…
IWM = 106.29, 107.34, 109.04…
Support Levels
SPY = 190.28, 189.66...
QQQ = 95.06, 93.66…
IWM = 105.76, 103.74, 102.49...
Earnings this week:
Tuesday: C, CSX, INTC, JNJ, JPM, LLTC, WFC
Wednesday: AXP, BAC,
EBAY, KEY, LVS, NFLX, URI
Thursday: AMD, BHI, BX,
COF, DAL, GS, GOOGL, MAT, OSTK, SNDK, SLB, SCHW, XLNX,
Friday: BK, GE, HON,
KSU, MS, STI
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – COST,
BBBY, BBRY, MU, NKE, PAYX, LULU, PANW, ULTA, MFRM, SPLK,
More than 10% - NKE, ULTA, LULU, PANW,
MFRM,
Negative Reactions – AZO, ADBE, KKD,
CIEN,
More than -10% -
Reversal in progress – AZO,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – KKD, BBRY, MU,
The SPY Market Forecast is at 20.
___________________
Setups
Horizontal Breakout:
ROST,
Bull Flag: GPRO, GMCR, MNST,
TWTR, ANGI,
At Support: SPY, FB, TSLA, BBRY, BBY, EMC, GOGO, IBM, JD, NKE, PANW, SPLK,
UAL, YELP, ZU, ADSK, AMZN, DTV, GILD, YHOO
Moves
New Highs: TLT, ROST,
COST,
Gap Down: MCHP, NXPI, AVGO, FSL, SWKS, MU, LRCX, XLNX, LLTC, KLAC,
MXIM, TXN, INTC, ALTR, SNDK FFIV, MSFT,
Bear Flag: NTES, RAX, SFUN, YY, CMCSA, STX,
Support
Break: SPY, CTRP, ETFC, SCHW, UA, V, HOG, BRCM, AA, CRM, FAS, HPQ, LNKD, SSYS,
SWI, UA, VRSN, Z, AKAM, BIDU, EXPE, GOOGL, ILMN, NTAP, PCLN, WDC
______________________
92 out of 100 NDX stocks closed lower on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SPLS, ROST, ORLY, COST, MAT, ESRX, GRMN
Lagging NDX stocks included: NXPI, AVGO, MU, XLNX, TSLA, KLAC, TXN, FFIV,
ATVI, SYMC
Leading stocks > +2% on
Friday:
Lagging stocks < -3.0% included:
AMBA, MBLY, SWKS, TWTR, PANW, P, JDSU, SPLK,
Z, SSYS, CSIQ, YY, GPRO, GOGO, AA, YNBDX, SFUN, ZU, CRM, FEYEX, LNKD, UBNT,
SCHW, BABA
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 11
COST,
MNST, PAYX, VRTX, SIAL, ALXN, DLTR, GMCR, MYL, AAPL, ROST
Moving Above 30 DMA =
0
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ADP, ADSK, BBBY, ISRG,
SRCL, YHOO
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMGN, CELG, CERN, CTSH, DTV,
EBAY, FAST, FB, GILD, LBTYA, MSFT, NFLX, REGN, CSCO, EXPE, INTU, MU, SBAC, WFM, CHRW, DISH, FISV,
AVGO, ALTR, BRCM, CTXS, INTC, KLAC, NTAP, BIDU,MAR, NXPI,SNDK, TXN, VOD, XLNX,
SPLS, AKAM, BIIB, CHKP,GOOG, QCOM, CHTR, CMCSA, FFIV, LLTC, AMAT, CA, ESRX,
EXPD, LMCA, LMCK, MXIM, SYMC, TRIP, VIAB, VRSK, EQIX, ILMN, MDLZ, NVDA, ORLY,
SIRI, CTRX, KRFT, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, FOXA, STX, TSLA, VIP, HSIC, SBUX, TSCO,
DISCA, MAT, ADI, WDC, GRMN, PCLN, PCAR, WYNN
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
No comments:
Post a Comment