Friday, February 28, 2014

SPX, SPY Breakout to All-time Closing High and Turn Positive YTD...Retail, Housing Stocks Post Strong Week...Financials Get Stronger...

Eight out of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLU, XLP and XLF were the strongest sectors…while XLV was unchanged and the weakest sector.  

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.52 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.15 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, mixed
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up .47 at 186.29 volume 150.8 million shares, above average volume
VIX down .04 at 14.00…
TNX up .16 at 26.58…
TLT up .59 at 108.51...
XLF up .11 at 21.70 volume 56.3 million shares, above average volume

AAPL down 1.43 at 526.24 volume 13.3 million shares
FB down .48 at 68.46…volume 66.8 million shares

Feb 28 – Weekly - YTD Performance

NDX   +0.91%           +2.90%
RUT   +1.58%           +1.67%
SPX    +1.26%           +0.60%

XLV    +1.07%           +7.22%
XLU    -0.25%            +6.53%
XLB    +1.93%           +1.86%
XLK    +1.11%           +1.71%
XLY    +2.52%           +0.01%
XLI      +1.30%           -0.38%
XLF    +1.02%            -0.73%
XLE    +1.02%            -0.97%
XLP    +1.80%           -1.47%

FB         -0.19%         +25.27%
NFLX   +3.10%         +21.04%
PCLN   +2.52%         +16.04%
MU        -3.55%         +11.22%
GILD     +0.24%        +10.24%
GOOG  +0.99%          +8.47%
BIDU      -1.00%          -3.91%
AMZN   +4.42%           -9.20%


Technical Commentary: 
DIA + 0.29%, SPY + 0.25%, QQQ -0.10%, IWM -0.47%.

SPX and SPY hit new all-time high
NDX and RUT pull back from new highs on Thursday
Financials bounce to short-term resistance, poised for short-term breakout
XLI at intermediate-term resistance
XLB, XLK, XLV and XLY close at all-time high

Technically stocks are poised to move higher with strength in Financial stocks and other sectors.  However, political uncertainty in Ukraine over the weekend and into next week could create selling pressure in stocks.  VIX near unchanged on Friday after volatile day.  GLD in bull flag and TLT bonds rise to resistance.


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including DRYS, MCP, SSYS, AZO, CSIQ, HOV, CIEN, COST, JOY, QIHU, BIG, FL,  and TSL that will report over the next few days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (94)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, SFLY, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (44, 46%)


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: ANR, ATI, BAC, BX, FAS, SFUN, TLT, V, ZION, AMZN, CMCSA, GILD, MSFT, WFM, YHOO
Diagonal Breakout: A, JNPR, VRSN, CELG,
Bull Flag:  AAL, BBRY, GLD, GME, NKE, P, RCL, SCSS, FB, GMCR, GOOG, MU, NFLX, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP, TSLA, WDC,
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up
Gap Down:   
Bear Flag: NTES, X, CMCSA,  
At Support: ANGI,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: LVS, MTW, SOHU, SPY, SWKS, CTSH, DTV, EBAY, GRMN, ROST, TXN, WYNN, XLNX,
Gap Up: SOHU, YOKU, MNST,
Gap Down: UAL,
H Breakout: MS, TPX,
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test: JDSU, SCSS,
Bounce: UNG, ESRX,
MACD Divergence Bounce
Bear Flag: GRPN, LNKD, SBUX,

Support Break:    

______________________


55 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three unchanged on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MNST, DISH, CHTR, DTV, MXIM, FOXA, DISCA, LBTYA, PCAR, CMCSA

Lagging NDX stocks included: BIDU, ALXN, ILMN, ADSK, TSLA, VRTX, GMCR, SNDK, AKAM, CTRX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: SOHU, YOKU, UNG, TPX

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CRM, BBRY, Z, LNKD, WLT, ANR, SPWR, UAL, RAX, ANGI, YELP, SPLK, CSIQ, P, KKD, GRPN, CIEN, GOGO

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 78
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG, WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, AKAM, AVGO, DTV, PCAR, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP, XLNX, ADI, MAR, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, LINTA, LLTC, VIAB, KRFT, BIDU, MDLZ, LMCA, FOXA, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC, WFM, BBBY, CA, DLTR, ROST, SIAL, ADP, COST, TSCO, SPLS, CELG, SIRI, YHOO, SBAC

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ESRX, INTC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
ADSK, BRCM, VRTX

Staying Below 30 DMA
CTRX, VRSK, AAPL, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, NTAP, CHTR, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC, STX, EXPD, VIP, PAYX, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral/Up

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