Tuesday, February 25, 2014

TSLA Electrifies With New Record High...BBRY Gaps Up...GME Breaks Out as Retail, Discretionary Rises...

Three out of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLY, XLP and XLB were the strongest sectors…while XLF was the weakest sector.  

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.18 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.52 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down .07 at 184.84 volume 116.6 million shares
VIX down .56 at 13.67…
TNX down .49 at 27.50…
TLT up .95 at 107.35...
XLF down .13 volume 40.1 million shares

AAPL down 6.43 at 521.12 volume 8.2 million shares
FB down .93 at 69.85…volume 52 million shares


Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 0.10%, SPY – 0.04%, DIA – 0.10%, QQQ – 0.11%.

Stocks pause at resistance in a narrow range day after Monday’s gains.  XLY consumer discretionary stocks led, typically a sign of an improving economy.  XLY led by HD +3.11, +3.99% and M +3.19, +6.01% on better than expected earnings on Tuesday morning.  Also strong were GME, PCLN, AMZN and LOW.

TSLA +30.35, +13.94% gained after MS raised its price target from 153 to 320.  We remember some market commentators stating that it’s too high in May of last year when it moved to 90.  Infamous last words…“it can’t go any higher.”  Balderdash.

Financial stocks suffered as bonds rose and interest rates fell sending GS, MS, JPM, CME, BAC and C lower.

With the NDX, XLV and XLU already above resistance making new highs, RUT, XLB, XLE, XLK, XLI and SPY at or near resistance, we maintain our view that a resistance breakout is still more probable.  Gains in trailing sectors XLY and XLP help offset the weakness in financials.
BBRY +0.77, +7.83% after new two new smartphone releases and CEO comments on spinning off or selling instance-messaging service.

FNMA +0.46, +12.85% gained continuing its big gains of the last five days.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Be mindful of reversal patterns like double bottoms and MACD divergences.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.10, 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26
IWM = 115.39, 117.37…

Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74, 86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including ADSK, CRM, FSLR, MCP, MNST, ROST, SINA, SCTY, YOKU, DRYS, TSL, SSYS and DDD that will report over the next few days…

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – HD, M, SCTY, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (93)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (43, 46%)


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: BX, GOGO, IWM, MFRM, NKE, P, SSYS, V, YELP, ADBE, GILD,
Diagonal Breakout: DRYS, CELG,  
Bull Flag: CIEN, MTW, QIHU, UNG, ADSK, DTV, GMCR, MU,
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up: LNKD, TLT,
Gap Down: TBT,  
Bear Flag: A,  
At Support: WLT, NTAP,  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: AAL, SCTY, SPLK, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN, TRIP,
Gap Up: TSAL, HD, BBRY, RCL, UAL,  
Gap Down: SINA, MNST,  
H Breakout:   
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test
Bounce: ANGI, GME, GRPN, RAX, AMZN, COST,  
MACD Divergence Bounce
Bear Flag:   
Support Break: ATI, SFUN, CMCSA, QCOM,  

______________________


39 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, TSCO, PCLN, TRIP, AMZN, BBBY, CTRX, NFLX, COST

Lagging NDX stocks included: EXPD, MNST, GMCR, SPLS, SBUX, REGN, MU, CHTR, CHRW

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: GRPN, BBRY, GME, LNKD, GOGO, ANGI, RAX, SCTY

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SINA, NTES

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 78
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, SBAC, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG, WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, BRCM, DTV, PCAR, VRTX, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP, MAR, XLNX, ADI, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTRX, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, LINTA, LLTC, VIAB, KRFT, BIDU, VRSK, MDLZ, LMCA, FOXA, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC, WFM, BBBY, CA, CELG, DLTR, ROST, SIAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ADP, COST, TSCO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, ESRX, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, NTAP, CHTR, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC STX, EXPD, VIP, INTC, YHOO, PAYX, SPLS, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up