Four of nine
sectors
moved higher on Friday…XLY, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors…while
XLE was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened as advancers
led decliners 1.32 to
1 on the NYSE and 1.09 to
1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened,
advancers led
Wednesday – weakened,
decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – holiday
SPY down .21 at 183.89 volume 118.1 million shares
VIX down .11 at 14.68…
TNX down .20 at 27.34…
TLT up .56 at 106.67...
XLF up .04 volume 43.1 million shares
AAPL down 5.90 at 525.25 volume 10 million shares
FB down 1.04 at 68.59…volume 70.9 million shares, 14% above average volume
YTD Performance Feb 21
NDX +1.97%
RUT +0.09%
SPX -0.66%
XLU +6.79%
XLV +6.08%
XLK +0.59%
XLB -0.06%
XLI -1.66%
XLF -1.74%
XLE -2.37%
XLY -2.44%
XLP -3.21%
FB +25.51%
NFLX +16.79%
PCLN +13.18%
MU +12.69%
GILD +9.97%
GOOG
+7.41%
BIDU -2.93%
AMZN -13.05%
Technical
Commentary:
IWM + 0.31%,
SPY -0.11%, DIA
-0.04%, QQQ -0.13%.
Stocks
traded in a range on February options expiration Friday. The positive were IWM, the Euro,
XLF, VIX and advancers. The
negatives were interest rates, bonds and SPX 1,850 resistance. Most activity was neutral with the SPX
trading in a 10 point range and just a 22 point range for the holiday four-day
trading week.
SPY is up +5.58%,
IWM +6.45% and
QQQ +6.69%
since the closing low on Feb 3.
The rally has been led by XLB +7.39%,
XLV +7.20% and
XLY +6.59%
which are the leading sectors since Feb 3. During that same time financials XLF +4.63% has
been the seventh strongest of nine sectors.
Financial sector XLF which was stronger on Tuesday this week fell -1.3% on Wednesday after
weak January housing starts were reported Wednesday morning. XLF recovered 10 cents Thursday and
Friday but still lags SPY as of Friday’s close.
If
financials gain strength next week that improves the probabilities that the SPX
will break through its 1,850 resistance area. With the NDX, XLV, XLU above resistance
and XLK and XLB at resistance we will watch
for a potential horizontal breakout entry on the SPX next week and
for the trend to continue higher.
ADSK, AKAM, CTSH, MNST, TRIP, WYNN, XLNX, UNG and UA each
made a new high close on Friday.
PCLN +32.65,
+2.54% gapped to
an all-time new high close on a positive earnings following the close on
Thursday.
GRPN -2.25,
-21.88% gapped down, following earnings after the close on Thursday,
to its lowest close in more than three months.
The negative reaction stemmed from lower than expected earnings guidance
on Q1.
Trade with the trend of the chart
you are trading and move
your protective stops. Be mindful of
reversal patterns like double bottoms and MACD divergences. Continue to follow your rules.
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.10, 187.99…
QQQ = 90.43, 92.25, 94.26…
IWM = 115.39, 117.37…
Support Levels
SPY = 181.85, 180.29 179.04
QQQ = 89.00, 87.74,
86.97
IWM = 113.65, 111.21
Q4 earnings season…
The majority of earnings
season is done, however there are still a few companies including ADSK, CRM, MCP, MNST, ROST, SCTY and SPLK that will report over the next few
days…
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN,
SWY, KRFT, AMAT, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO,
ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC,
KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG,
GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL,
CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX,
FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB,
STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions – ESRX,
GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX,
VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, GILD, CVX,
MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA,
CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK,
STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM,
HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (93)
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN,
CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW,
EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO,
AA (43, 46%)
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: GILD, MSFT, TXN, WDC, ATI, BX, DDD, GLD,
GLW, IBM, IWM, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, P, SCSS, SFUN, SOHU, SPWR, SPY, TBT, TPX, AAL,
Diagonal Breakout: NFLX, SBUX, CREE, CSIQ, DRYS, ESI, GME,
GOGO, KKD, STI, TWTR, XONE,
Bull Flag: ADBE, CELG, COST, FFIV, GOOG, GRMN,
QCOM, YHOO, FAS, V, YELP, ZION,
One Day: FB, GMCR, MU, TSLA, CIEN, MTW, QIHU, SWI,
SWKS, VRSN,
Potential Bullish
Divergence: AMZN, NTAP, BAC, BBRY, NTES, TLT, X, Z
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: WFM, LNKD,
At Support: ANGI,
ANR, WLT, X, YNDX, Z
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: ADSK, AKAM, CTSH, MNST, TRIP, WYNN,
XLNX, UNG, UA,
Gap Up: PCLN, AEE, MDRX, ALEX
Gap Down: ESRX, GRPN,
H Breakout: UNG,
Diagonal Breakout: MFRM, NKE,
Breakout Test: SNDK,
Bounce: WDC, CRM, RCL,
MACD Divergence Bounce: STX, A, MS, UAL,
Bear Flag: RAX,
Support Break:
______________________
45 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher and one
unchanged on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: INTU, BIIB, PCLN,
CERN, REGN, WYNN, CTSH, WDC, LINTA, DISH
Lagging NDX stocks included: CHTR, ESRX, SBAC,
COST, MU, CELG, LBTYA, FB, CMCSA, SBUX
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: ESI, MFRM, UNG
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GRPN, WLT, CSIQ, RAX, TSL, CIEN, ANGI,
QIHU, CREE, BBRY
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 70
ILMN, EQIX,
FFIV, SBAC, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, GOOG,
WYNN, FB, GMCR, ADBE, ORLY, DISH, EBAY, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, BRCM, DTV, PCAR, VRTX,
AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM, SNDK, TRIP,
MAR, XLNX, ADI, AAPL, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTRX, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, LINTA,
LLTC, VIAB, KRFT, BIDU, VRSK, MDLZ, LMCA, FOXA, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST,
INTU, VOD, WDC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
SIRI, WFM
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
CA, CELG, COST, ESRX,
SIAL
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, CHTR, NTAP, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC, STX, EXPD, VIP,
ADP, INTC, YHOO, TSCO, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, MAT
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Neutral
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