Tuesday, January 28, 2014

US Stocks Rebound After Multi-Day Loss Streak...Large Number Of Stocks Bounce...IWM, SPY, DIA & QQQ Continue Bounce In After Hours Trading...AAPL Suffers Worst Day Of Trading Year...AAPL Gaps Down 7.99% After Disappointing Earnings Outlook...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLV, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLK was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 2.98 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.05 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – Strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led


SPY up 1.06 at 179.07 volume 109.8 million shares
VIX down 1.62 at 15.80…
TNX down .20 at 27.46…
TLT up .26 at 106.99...
XLF up .28 at 21.26 volume 35.3 million shares

AAPL down 44.00 at 506.50 volume 38 million shares
FB up 1.59 at 55.14…volume 48.2 million shares


Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 1.06%, SPY + 0.60%, DIA + 0.58%, QQQ – 0.06%.

Stocks rebounded on Tuesday’s trading session breaking a multi-day loss streak.  The DJIA gained 90.68 closing at 15,929 while the S&P 500 gained 10.94 points to close at 1,792…the Nasdaq Composite added 14.35 point to close at 4,097.

AAPL experienced its worst day of the year so far…after posting their earnings report after Monday’s trading session…with disappointing earnings outlook…AAPL gapped down and closed down 44.00 losing 7.99% in Tuesday’s trading session on volume of 38.1 million shares.

YHOO closed up to 4.28% but after posting disappointing earnings…with revenues slipping…after today’s session…YHOO is down 1.02 or 2.67%.

NFLX continued its up-trend with volume of 6.2 million shares…NFLX closed up 25.54 or 6.70%...and is up in after hours trading.

In after hours trading IWM, SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all up…continuing the up trend of today’s trading session.





While we have pointed out for weeks to move stops up and protect profits and that should have led to positions closing out with profits on Thursday and Friday.  Now it’s time to be defensiveThe markets shifted to down in the short-term and neutral in a six-week time frame this week, while the twelve-week intermediate term and long-term trends are still up.

Monday kicks off a huge week for earnings AAPL, CAT, RCL, STX, X, and ZION just on Monday.  On Tuesday CMCSA, DD, F, ILMN, VMW and YHOO.  On Wednesday FB, BA and QCOM report and Thursday releases MMM, AMZN, CELG, CMG, GOOG and V.  The week wraps with BIDU, CVX and MA on Friday.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00
IWM = 114.48, 116.70

Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74, 176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67
IWM = 113.26, 112.14, 110.71


Q4 earnings season continues into the third full week…

Monday – AAPL, CAT, RMBS, RCL, STX, X, ZION
Tuesday – AKS, AAL, AMGN, CHKP, CRUS, CMCSA, GLW, DD, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, NUE, OI, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday – BIIB, BA, CTXS, DOW, EMC, FB, LRCX, LVS, PSX, QCOM, TSCO, VLO
Thursday – MMM, ALXN, AMZN, BZH, BRCM, CELG, CMG, CL, LLY, XOM, GOOG, HOG, JDSU, MTW, OSTK, BTU, POT, PHM, RVBD, RYL, SHW, BX, TWC, UPS, VIAB, V, WHR, 
Friday – BIDU, CVX, CNX, MA, MAT, NOV, PCAR, SPG, TSN


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – DD, F, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL


Negative Reactions – ILMN, VMW, YHOO, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,  

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is below 80 and is pointed down.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: QIHU, RCL, UNG,   
Diagonal Breakout: COST, WFM,  
Bull Flag: ESI, JNPR, MFRM, TLT, DTV, GMCR, NTAP, WDC, XLNX,  
Potential Bullish Divergence:    
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:  
At Support: TPX,  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs:  
Gap Up: SINA, SPWR,          
Gap Down: GLW, SWKS, AAPL, STX,   
H Breakout: FFIV, NFLX,  
Diagonal Breakout:  
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: ATI, BAC, BBRY, C, CREE, CRM, CSIQ, DDD, FAS, GRPN, LVS, NKE, NTES, P, SCTY, SFUN, SOHU, SPLK, SPY, SSYS, SWI, UAL, V, YELP, YOKU, Z, ADBE, ADSK, AMZN, BIDU, CELG, CMCSA, ESRX, FB, GOOG, GRMN, INTC, MNST, TSLA, WYNN, YHOO,  
MACD Divergence Bounce: CIEN, DRYS, FSLR, KKD, LNKD, RAX, WLT,  
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: QCOM,  

______________________


78 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NFLX, TSLA, MXIM, YHOO, CHKP, BIDU, ILMN, FFIV, FB, REGN, WYNN

Lagging NDX stocks included: VIP, STX, AAPL, QCOM, WDC

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: Z, CSIQ, SCTY, KKD, GRPN, YELP, SPWR, QIHU, TWTR

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GLW, ESI, GME, TPX

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 28

ILMN, ADSK, ESRX, MNST, CMCSA, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, AKAM, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, SBAC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, GILD, MXIM, NXPI, TSLA, NTAP, GOLD, NFLX, CHTR

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
ALTR, ALXN, CHKP, GOOG, REGN, SYMC, WYNN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
BRCM, CSCO, DTV, GMCR, STX, WDC

Staying Below 30 DMA
EBAY, HSIC, MSFT, PCLN, QCOM, SRCL, AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, AMZN, CA, CELG, CERN, CHRW, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FB, FIXV, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SIAL, SNDK, TXN, VIP, VOD, ADI, ADP, BIDU, CTXS, DISH, GRMN, KRFT, EXPE, INTC, INTU, LBTYA, MDLZ, TRIP, VIAB, YHOO, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, FOXA, SPLS, DISCA, MAT, WFM, VRSK, COST, LMCA, SBUX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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