Thursday, January 10, 2013

Financials, SPY Lead Stocks Higher, AAPL Bounces...FB, YELP Rise...


WFC releases earnings Friday morning and MS on Monday.

All nine sectors moved higher on Thursday… XLF, XLE and XLV were the strongest sectors.   XLU was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened on Thursday as advancers led decliners…1.85 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.39 to 1 on the NASDAQ…Breadth strengthens as advancers increase and or decliners decrease.  Breadth weakens as advancers decrease and or decliners increase.

Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led


The SPY broke out of resistance and formed a new high close on the strength of the financial sector and rising interest rates.  The breakout was by only 47 cents so traders should continue to watch closely if prices rollover and be prepared to protect profits, However it appears that the uptrend is more likely to continue. 

As earnings season begins look for stock selectivity to increase as stocks with good earnings and guidance will likely rise and those with either weak earnings or guidance likely to fall in price.  This selectivity may keep the SPY in a narrow range for the next several days.


SPY up 1.16 at 147.08...volume 130.7 million shares…
VIX down 32 cents at 13.49
TNX up 0.42 at 18.94…
TLT down 33 cents at 118.79…
XLF
 up 22 cents at 17.15…volume 61.3 million shares

AAPL up 6.41 at 523.51…volume 21.4 million shares …
FB up 71 cents at`31.30…on volume of 95.2 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:

The SPY formed a potential hanging man as it broke through horizontal resistance and formed a new high close.  The SPY +0.79% led the broad ETFs and IWM +0.23% was the weakest.  CRUS, EXPD, LMCA, VIAB and FAS broke through resistance on Thursday, while a large number of stocks bounced off support and gave fresh entry signals.  FB continued to climb from its recent breakout.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  If it is breaking out of resistance take the trade or stay with the uptrend according to your rules.  If the stock begins to rollover protect your profits.

The Euro had a mega-bounce up 234 pips to close at 1.3267 on Thursday.

Disk storage stocks WDC +0.82% and STX +0.60% continued to rise.  Coal stocks ANR and ACI pulled back slightly while BTU, CNX, JRCC and WLT all rose.  Chinese solar stocks TSL and LDK paused forming a doji in their multi-week uptrend.


The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone. 

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Setups
Breakout:  NUAN, CRM, QCOM, ADSK, IWM, CTRP, BRCM, RCL, NKE, EBAY, WDC, REGN, ADBE

Bull Flag:  GLW, ACI, BTU, JRCC, TRIP, NFLX, CERN, ANR, ROST, FFIV, CIEN, IBM, DECK, FSLR, GMCR, CTSH, COST, ZION,

Moves
Breakout: CRUS, SPY, EXPD, LMCA, VIAB, FAS, CTXS, JOY, STX, FOSL, GILD, LIFE, FB, AMZN, TRIP, WAG, EQIX, GOOG, SNDK

Bounce:  YELP, SINA, NTES, WLT, SBAC, JNPR, ADI, PCAR, TXN

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72 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  BIDU, CELG, GOLD, FB, ALXN, NWSA, AVGO, SYMC, MCHP, ALTR

Lagging NDX stocks included:  MNST, VRTX, FAST, YHOO, EXPE, AMGN, MSFT, MXIM, ORLY, WFM

Leading stocks> +2% on Thursday included:  YELP, SINA, CDE, CRUS, NTES, SMH, LNKD, RIMM, HUM, FAS, BAC, GRPN, TPX, F, SOHU, CHL, DECK, ANF, FB, GS, NFLX,

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  MCP, TIF, VECO, SSYS, FAZ


Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 80
SBUX, CSCO, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, ADBE, GOOG, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, LMCA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK, ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, EBAY, EXPE, LINTA, MU, MXIM, MYL, SRCL, SYMC, VRTX, WYNN, XRAY, PRGO, FB, ALXN, CA, CELG, CERN, GILD, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, PCLN, QCOM, MDLZ, CTRX, ROST, SPLS, VOD, BMC, ESRX, MAT, REGN

Moving Above 30 DMA =1
AVGO   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
AKAM, AMGN      

Staying Below 30 DMA
GRMN, NVDA, YHOO, ATVI, NTAP, SHLD, ORLY, PAYX, WFM, MNST, MSFT, AAPL, BIIB, DLTR, BBBY, ISRG, GOLD

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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