Thursday, December 13, 2012

SPY Pulls Back...TNX Rises, ADBE Gaps Up After the Close...


All sectors moved lower on ThursdayXLP, XLB, and XLI were the strongest sectors

Breadth
weakened on Thursday as decliners led advancers …2.33 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.66 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY down 88 cents at 142.63...volume 135.7 million shares…
VIX up 61 cents at 16.56
TNX up 31 cents at 17.28…
TLT up 9 cents at 122.68…
XLF
down 8 cents at 16.06…volume 41.3 million shares

AAPL down 9.31 at 529.69…volume 22.3 million shares …
FB up 66 cents at`28/24…on volume of 81 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a large black candle at horizontal resistance above its 30 DMA.  The VIX closed higher and did confirm the SPY move down today.

The ES closed down 8.00 at 1,418 as the ES continues above its 1,400 support area …NQ futures closed down 20. 25 at 2,650.25 as AAPL held above support again.

Coal stocks JRCC, ACI, BTU, continued higher on Thursday.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Thursday’s price action pulled back in a bull flag pattern.

The Euro closed up 4 pips at 1.3076 on Thursday staying near horizontal resistance.

TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved up 9 cents.  XLF moved down 8 cents to 16.06.

ADBE rose more than 5% in after hours trading following earnings relase.


SPY – gap down black candle, bull flag, above 30 DMA
AAPL spinning top, lower close at support, below 30 DMA
FB –  white candle, bull flag bounce, BO target 29.63
FAS – black candle, bull flag
AMZN –  doji, horizontal bull flag
EXPE – black candle, bull flag bounce
STX – doji, bull flag, BO target 29.98
VIAB – large black candle bull flag
RIMM – white candle
CRUS – black candle at support, DBO or break of support setup
F – large black candle, channel
PHM – potential shooting star, channel above 30 DMA
SWK – bearish engulfing at resistance
SWI – spinning top, symmetrical triangle
RAX – black candle, bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
URI – black candle bull flag set up
YELP white candle, bull flag bounce above 30 DMA
XHB – spinning top, DBO setup, at 30 DMA
XRT – spinning top above 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 143.52 short-term resistance
ES =
1,419.50…1,425 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2954, 1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ


Moves:

Bounce:  OSK, EXPD, VMW, WLT, BTU, SHLD, CMG,

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26 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: RIMM, FB, NFLX, APOL, SPLS, GOOG, WYNN, LRCX, VOD, DLTR

Lagging NDX stocks included: MNST, WCRX, GOLD, BRCM, VRSN, MXIM, BMC, AKAM, ORLY, AVGO

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included:  ZAGG, UAL, TPX, GRPN, TSL, FB, JNPR

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MCP, SWKS, CRUS, TSLA, VECO, CDE, LDK, CREE, STI

Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 84  
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, FB, CSCO, NTAP GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN, XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLX, NVDA, BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS, SIRI

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
VRTX

Moving Below 30 DMA =2
AVGO, BMC

Staying Below 30 DMA
PCLN, DLTR, AAPL, WCRX, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, BIDU, PRGO, VRSN, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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