Friday, December 28, 2012

Inverted Hammers Appear as SPY, IWM, QQQ and Stocks Retreat to Support...


All nine sectors moved lower on FridayXLF, XLY, and XLV were the strongest sectors.   XLE was the weakest sector for the second day in a row.

Breadth
weakened on Friday as decliners led advancers…2.16 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.96 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday - closed
Friday – weakened, decliners led


If short-term trades were exited through target or stop, continue to look for re-entry on a valid bullish or bearish signal.


SPY down -1.53 at 140.03...volume 138.6 million shares…
VIX up 3.25 at 22.72
TNX down -0.04 at 17.11…
TLT up 70 cents at 123.31…
XLF
down 13 cents at 16.18…volume 32 million shares

AAPL down -5.47 at 509.59…volume 12.6 million shares …
FB down 14 cents at`25.91…on volume of 56.5 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:

The SPY closed down 1.53 at 140.03 and formed an inverted hammer like candle near the low of Thursday’s long tailed hammer, closing below its 30 DMA.   IWM and QQQ did form an inverted hammer as did FAS, XLI, XLK and XLY. 

The VIX had its biggest jump in weeks that many attribute to fears over the so-call “Fiscal Cliff.”  This is a cliff which the media acknowledges can be avoided retroactively after the first of the year.  How many cliffs can you drive a car over and then retroactively not go over the cliff?  Chart Signals concludes that “cliff” is an inaccurate metaphor chosen because the media respects the public and does not want to cause undo fear or maybe they had other motivations.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest that the current 6 week uptrend is likely to continue.  Friday’s close is just below its 38.2% Fib retracement off its Nov 16 low.  The four week trend is neutral.

The Euro closed down 19 pips at 1.3216 on Friday. TNX was slightly lower, TLT, bonds rose 70 cents and XLF was down 13 cents at 16.18.

Disk storage stocks WDC and STX were down slightly on Friday and coal stocks ANR, ACI, BTU and WLT also moved lower.


The Market Forecast Green Line closed below the upper reversal zone and is pointed down.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 146.82 short-term resistance flagpole target
ES =
1,449 161% Fib extension
1,459 = 200% measuring
EUR/USD = 1.3281 161% Fib extension

Short-term support at
1.3126 = Euro
139.92, 139.15 = SPY
85.18 = SPXL
1,1390.50, 1,376 = ES
2,585, 2,577 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag: IWM, FAS, WFC, NFLX, ORCL, FB, GOOG, VMW, MCP, MNST, ZION, STI, SBUX, TRIP, ADI, ALTR, XLNX, ADBE, ADSK, CHKP, CSCO, CTSH, CTXS, FOSL, MU, NVDA, SWK, JNPR, GLW, V, URE, EXPD, SNDK, LLTC, A, CRM, CREE, DHR, LVS, NKE, TPX

At Support: NTAP, IBM, CELG, DELL, SMH, BIIB, INTC, INTU, GRMN, LCC, SPY, DIA, QQQ, ADP, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, VIAB, TSLA, EBAY, RCL, SLB, TIF, VECO

Moves:
Bull Flag Bounce:  SSYS

Bounce Continuation:  DLR, FAST, RIMM, F,

Pause:  DECK, EXPE, BIDU, AKS, BAC, WDC, STX, AMAT, SIAL, C, ATI, PCAR, LNKD, ALXN, YHOO, GMCR, EXPD, URI, COST, DISCA

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97 of 100 NDX stocks closed lower and one was unchanged on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  SHLD, ROST, VRSK, LINTA, CTRX, PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included:  GRMN, VRTX, NTAP, INTU, FOSL, ISRG, MYL, EXPE, AKAM, MSFT

Leading stocks> +2% on Friday included:  LDK, HLF, SSYS, SOHU, SINA, FAZ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: VECO, X, GMCR, FAS, JNPR

Stocks to Watch on Monday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 48
YHOO, SBUX, CSCO, NTAP, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, LMCA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK

Moving Above 30 DMA =0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 14
ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, ESRX, EXPE, INTU, MU, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, PRGO, VRTX, WYNN

Staying Below 30 DMA
CA, CELG, FB, HSIC, WFM, XRAY, ALXN, BIIB, BMC, CERN, DTV, EBAY, LIFE, LINTA, MAT, MSFT, REGN, DLTR, SYMC, MDLZ, AMGN, ORLY, PAYX, QCOM, SPLS, CTRX, BBBY, GILD, ISRG, SRCL, ATVI, VOD, AVGO, PCLN, AAPL, SHLD, GOLD, ROST

Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 comment:

Kidz said...

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