Monday, December 17, 2012

SPY, DIA, FAS Bull Flag Bounce...AAPL Support Bounce, Interest Rates Jump, Bonds Fall...


All nine sectors moved higher on MondayXLF, XLY, and XLU  were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth
strengthened on Monday as advancers led decliners 2.01 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.13 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – strengthened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

NDX 100 annual changes to take effect prior to the open on Monday, Dec. 24, 2012:
Additions:  ADI, CTRX, DISCA, EQIX, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, SBAC, VRSK, WDC
Deletions:  APOL, EA, FLEX, GMCR, LRCX, MRVL, NFLX, RIMM, VRSN, WCRX


SPY up 1.66 at 143.77...volume 133.8 million shares…
VIX -0.66 at 16.34
TNX +0.55 at 17.63…
TLT down -1.85 at 121.75…
XLF
up 33 cents at 16.33…volume 69.1 million shares

AAPL up 9.03 at 518.83…volume 27 million shares
FB down 6 cents at`26.75…on volume of 57.7 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:  
The SPY formed a gap up bullish engulfing in a bull flag bounce as many stocks bounced in a bull flag bounce.  The VIX closed lower and did confirm the SPY move up today.

The ES closed up 13.00 at 1,427.25 and NQ futures closed up 32.25 at 2,663.75 as AAPL bounced again at support.  Trading continued to shift to the H3, March contract on Monday.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, ACI and BTU, paused on Monday.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Monday’s price action is a bull flag bounce.

The Euro held above resistance and closed up 2 pips to 1.3163 on Monday.  TNX, interest rates jumped, TLT, bonds dropped down -1.85 and XLF soared 33 cents to 16.33.

Chart Signals saw its bull flag bounce on Monday.  Listed in today’s post are some of the bull flag bounces and bull flag setups on the charts on Monday.


SPY – large white candle, bull flag bounce, above 30 DMA
AAPL bullish engulfing, MACD divergence, below 30 DMA
FB – doji, channel, BO target 29.63
FAS – large white candle, bull flag bounce
AMZN – large white candle, horizontal bull flag bounce
EXPE – large white candle, bull flag bounce continuation
STX – white candle, bull flag bounce, BO target 29.98
VIAB – white spinning top, bull flag setup
RIMM – spinning top, new high close, EPS Dec 20
CRUS – gap bullish engulfing, support bounce
F – gap bullish engulfing, support bounce
PHM – large white candle, resistance breakout
SWK – gap bullish engulfing, bull flag setup
SWI – dragonfly doji, 30 DMA bounce setup
RAX – spinning top, bull flag bounce continuation, above 30 DMA
URI – hammer, bull flag setup
YELP spinning top, bull flag bounce pause, above 30 DMA
XHB – bullish engulfing, DBO bounce, close above 30 DMA
XRT – gap bullish engulfing, support bounce, close above30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 144.55 short-term resistance
ES =
1,438 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172

Short-term support at
1.30.61, 1.2990 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
82.53 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag:  MCP, AMGN, CELG, EBAY, FB, NTAP, SNDK, BRCM, VIAB, MNST, PCAR, ALTR, LLTC, MRVL, MXIM, XLNX, BIIB, SIAL, DELL, AMAT, URI, TSLA, SWK, DLR, SMH, DECK, GLW, WDC, VECO, ADI

Moves:
Gap Up:

Bull Flag Bounce:  SPY, DIA, IWM, FAS, AMZN, BAC, C, V, LNKD, VMW, STI, GILD, GRMN, SBUX, STX, COST, EXPD, XRAY, TRIP, URE, IBM, DISCA

Bounce:  X, AKS

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82 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Monday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, QCOM, ISRG, ROST, EXPE, CMCSA, AVGO, GOOG, NWSA, FFIV

Lagging NDX stocks included: MU, GMCR, ATVI, DELL, PRGO, BIDU, MNST, SYMC, WCRX, RIMM

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included:  SINA, CRUS, RVBD, FAS, PHM, SWKS, TRIP, C, BAC, SOHU, GS, CMG, TBT, ZION, RCL, STI, F, A

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FAZ, TSL, GRPN, YELP, ZAGG, CIEN, HLF, LDK, ANR

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 79  
YHOO, MYL, RIMM, XRAY, SBUX, HSIC, GILD, FB, CSCO, NTAP GMCR, VMED, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN, XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLX, NVDA, BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS, SIRI, BIDU, WCRX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
BMC, CMCSA, CERN, VRTX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ATVI, VOD

Staying Below 30 DMA
ORLY, QCOM, AVGO, WFM, PCLN, DLTR, AAPL, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, PRGO, VRSN, CA, ROST


Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up