Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Thansgiving a Time to Reflect and Be Grateful...


A friend of mine, Jim Wilson, shared with me some time ago a saying he attributed to Buddha…

Let us be grateful for we have learned a lot today and if we haven’t learned a lot today, let us be grateful for at least we've learned a little, and if we haven’t learned a little today, let us be grateful for at least we're not sick and if we are sick, let us be grateful for at least we didn’t die.”

On this Thanksgiving we have a lot for which to be grateful. 

We have our lives and good health to some degree, maybe perfectly good health.  We have family for which to be thankful.  Parents, here or that have passed on, that taught us one way or another, almost always the best of which they were capable, the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  Perhaps parents that provided for us, in our youth, at great personal sacrifice of their time, resources and personal convenience.  We each have a mother who brought us here and made our life possible.

Many of us have children that have given us the opportunity to teach them the difference between right and wrong, respect for other people and to say please, and thank you and you’re welcome.  In some cases those children have allowed us to learn how to sacrifice our time, resources and personal convenience. 

Perhaps we have a husband, wife or close friend that brings us the joy of companionship and lightens the load, that shares the burdens, challenges, opportunities and joys of life with us.  The one that somehow through the magic of relationships makes our life sweeter and more fulfilling.

We also have personal forefathers including grandparents, great grandparents and so on that forged personal paths that made our direct family circumstances possible.

In America we have political forefathers that forged a path, at great personal sacrifice, towards the ideal that all people are created equal and “that they are endowed by their Creator certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

We have today a free country, although faced with challenges just as it has been every year since 1776, which allows us the freedom to create and the ability to enjoy the fruits of our creation.

As my friend Steven Halpern once observed, “trading is only money, the really important things are life, health, family and friends.”

On this Thanksgiving let us be grateful, let us be thankful for all the blessings our Creator has provided and that we enjoy and let us pursue our life opportunities with our family, our friends, in our health, business and trading with the passion that each deserves.

Wishing you the best of success in all aspects of your lifeDave Johnson


If you would like to share some of your reflections on gratitude or Thanksgiving, please feel free to do so by clicking on comments below and sharing in the "Leave your comment" box...I'd love to read your insights...Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving! 



______________________________________________________________________

Chart Signals Insight:  At the bottom of each end-of-day post are two lines with the Intermediate Term Trend and the Short Term Trend status as viewed by Dave.  This has been a feature on Chart Signals since the first actual post on March 31, 2008.

The Intermediate Term Trend can be from four weeks plus to six months.  If there are multiple, and there can be, Intermediate Term trends I do specify, at times, the specific trend length to which I am referring.

The Short Term Trend is typically the direction for two or more days as I see it on the chart and is not an opinion.  I have consistently and objectively changed the Short Term Trend as the market has shifted short term direction regardless of anything that I have said in webcasts or written in this blog.

I mention this today, because I sense that many people that I speak with miss the real value of the bottom two lines and especially the bottom line of each daily post.  When this direction changes you should be checking your positions to see if you should move a stop, exit a position or enter a new short term position in a different direction.  While it would be time consuming to check the Short Term Trend status over an extended period of time, I am convinced based on many discussions, if one did check it and had modified then existing trades based on the changes in the Short Term Trend status that their trading results would have improved significantly.

Okay check just one change, last Wednesday November 16, 2011. 
What if you had made changes last Thursday the day after, would it had made a difference? 
How much of a difference?

Get it?
______________________________________________________________________ 



Markets close early at 1 pm ET on Friday.  Dave will be in the Weekly Wrap with Tom and Ben at 1:30 pm ETSee you there...

A German 10-yr bond auction goes badly, meaning the Bundesbank had to buy 39% of the issue.  The Euro falls, the dollar rises, leading to higher bonds and lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates lead to selling pressure on financial stocks and yes you guessed it the SPX is down big.  The ideal day, as Chart Signals refers to it, of Global Money Flow.  Exactly as a trader should expect it to be when money flees the Euro and moves into the dollar.

Additionally as the dollar rises, theoretically, gold and oil prices should also fall as denominated in dollars which they did today.

All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday.  XLP -1.08%, XLV -1.46% and XLU -1.57% were the strongest sectors.

The Euro was down 172 pips to 1.3340 at 5 pm EDT on Wednesday.  TNX was down -0.60 to 18.79.  TLT was up $1.19.  Financials XLF was down 33 cents.

The broad indexes moved lower for the sixth straight day with the RUT -3.15%, COMPQ -2.43%, NDX -2.25%, SPX -2.21% and INDU 2.05%.  The SPX moved down -26.25 to close at 1,161.79.

With the Euro selling off big and futures lower there was no chance at the open for a Morning Star on the SPX and there was no break above the high of the low day.  Instead the SPY and many stocks made a new low day.

(click image to enlarge)

SPY traded 216.1 million shares, 3.7 million shares more than Tuesday.  Trading volume in many individual stocks that we watch was at least 20% below average.  Only about 10% of the stocks traded 20% or more above average.  DE was 155% of average.

The VIX moved up 2.01 to 33.98.

DE gapped higher and closed higher while GRPN fell below its recent IPO price.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN and QCOM moved lower on Wednesday.

We learned something on Wednesday…that bullish candle patterns can and do fail when buyers fail to follow through.  Tuesday’s bullish candle patterns on AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, PCLN and QCOM all failed to follow through on Wednesday.

AAPL = Morning Star, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low
AMZN = Piercing Line, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low
BIDU = confirmed Hammer, reversed and stayed above Monday’s low
PCLN = Piercing Line, reversed and made a lower low
QCOM = Bullish Engulfing, gapped down and made a lower low

GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, PCLN and BIDU did rally in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Flagging Stocks to Watch: UCO, GLW, HUM, FFIV, AKAM, ORLY, STX, FAST, MU

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 7.51 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.66 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange         NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers           358              382
Decliners          2,692           2,165       

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday FAZ, TSL, LDK, DE

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GRPN, AKS, SWKS, FAS, PCX, RCL, X, MCP, RVBD, ANR, CLF, CREE, URE, STI, A, ATI, WLT, CRUS, JDSU, CIEN, KKD, HAL, CROX, INFA, CDE, ENTR, BAC, NVDA, NTES, SNDK, SWK, ZION, TPX, SOHU, CF, ZAGG, SWN, JNPR, TIF, IL, LNKD, C, LVS, SLW, MOS, SLB, GCX, SINA, FFIV, UCO, UAL, DHR, ESI, HUM, SMH, GLW, VECO, DLR, F, CMG, CAT, UNP, CRM, ICE, GES, DOW, CSTR, NGLS, TBT

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included GILD, FSLR, CERN, ESRX, APOL, CHKP and YHOO.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include SIRI, MU, SHLD, CTSH, QCOM, MRVL, WYNN, ADSK, NVDA and CTRP.

TEN NDX stocks AKAM, BIIB, DTV, FFIV, NVDA, QCOM, SBUX, SIRI, STX and VRSN moved below their 30 DMA leaving 3 NDX stocks above the 30 DMA. 

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 5
TSLA, NGLS, UCO, TLT, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
DE
Moving Below 30 DMA = 8
ATI, CDE, DLR, FFIV, GLW, HUM, NVDA, UNP
Staying Below 30 DMA
CAT, A, AKS, CHL, CLF, IBM, INFA, NDAQ, NTES, RVBD, SWK, TIF, X, CIEN, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, LVS, SLB, SNDK, VMW, ANR, ARUN, CF, COH, CREE, CRM, CRUS, DHR, FCX, KKD, NKE, SLW, SMH, SWN, URE, V, WLT, CMG, DECK, DOW, HLF, ICE, MOS, PCX, TPX, C, GES, LDK, RCL, VECO, ENTR, FAS, GS, SOHU, STI, ZION, MCP, BAC, F, TSL, CSTR, IL, POT, SINA, SWKS, WDC, ZAGG, LNKD, ANF, ESI, TBT, UAL, CROX, GRPN

Deleted: FWLT
Added: TSLA

Seven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

29 comments:

John Kevan said...

"There are only two ways to live your life. One as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle." -Albert Einstein

Anonymous said...

I opened your blog to see what you had to say about the drop today, and, actually, was very inspired about what you wrote. I plan on reading it to my family tomorrow (although, I will leave out the part about trading). Thank you so much for writing this.

Judy Derouin

Dave Johnson said...

John,

Thank you...a great quote from one of my favorites observers of life...Albert Einstein. Say hi to Sheri for me and Happy Thanksgiving.

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Judy,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts...You're welcome...and I agree leave out the part about trading, candidly it does likely deserve less passion than family, health and friends. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!

Dave

Jeff Scott said...

Thank you Dave for all the hard work you put into teaching and helping others achieve their goals. We all appreciate how much personal sacrifice it takes to travel, teach, and post. Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

Jeff Scott

Anonymous said...

May you be free from fear.
May you be free from suffering.
May you be happy.
May you be filled with loving kindness.
A thanksgiving blessing for you and your family and for all of us who following your writings and teachings.

Mike said...

Dave

Thank you for your thoughts on being thankful at this time of year. I try to start each day thinking of what I have to be thankful for. It helps to get a good focus to start the day. Also helps me to remember what is really important.

Wishing you and your family and all blog readers a Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Mike

Rick said...

Thanks Dave : ) A very happy Thanksgiving to you and yours..

You're joyful willingness to share the considerable knowledge you have accumulated with steady, and thoughtful expression is something I'm very grateful for. God bless you and keep you. Thanks for all you do...

Rick Price

Jeff Panasiti said...

Wise words, thank you very much.
It is very easy to caught up in "life" and not take the time to reflect on how well "life" is treating us. For some unknown reason to me being negative trumps being positive. Together our collective will can change this and there is no better day to start then on Thanksgiving. Have a Happy Thanksgiving

Dave Johnson said...

Jeff,

You're welcome! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Mike,

You're welcome! Great idea for us all to consider being grateful at the start of each day.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Rick,

You're welcome! You're right... May God bless us all, each and everyone.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Jeff P,

I really like the idea of using our collective will to overcome the negative tendency that afflicts us all from time to time. Let's do it!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Dave

Inspector Clouseau said...

Nice blog work. I came across your blog while “blog surfing” using the Next Blog button on the Nav Bar located at the top of my blogger.com site. I frequently just travel around looking for other blogs which exist on the Internet, and the various, creative ways in which people express themselves. Thanks for sharing.

Anonymous said...

Firstly, we thank you so much Dave for all you do for us and your generosity in sharing your knowledge.

So grateful also to know that Life should be lived , not just from the Glass Half Full perspective, but how about from a realisation that our cups are in fact overflowing, indeed that we are the cups ourselves as we create our own abundance, so long as we truly believe in ourselves and our innate capacities to create, in the pursuit of happiness as the American forefathers envisaged.

Francis and Doreen Roe
Vancouver BC

Doug said...

One thing I am certainly thankful of is crossing paths with an individual as generous as you...Thank you Dave. Happy Thanksgiving.

Doug Monckton

fayburn said...

Dave,
You are truly a remarkable person. Thank you for sharing not just your exceptional intellect, but your inner self as well. You are obviously a very giving person, and may God continue to bless your efforts. You have helped so many of us with our trading, and also an inspiration for living life on life's terms.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Fayburn Gage

Anonymous said...

From Ethics of the Fathers (which is the wisdom of Jewish Sages found in the Talmud), there is a maxim which states: "WHO IS THE RICH MAN? HE WHO IS HAPPY WITH HIS PORTION." What does this mean? It means that HOW MUCH material possessions you may have is NOT the true source of happiness (richness). Instead, take stock of the meaningful things you already have (health, family, vision, hands and feet, the ability to scratch your nose, etc etc, etc). Taking inventory of these meaningful possessions and keeping them in focus is what makes a person "rich" with happiness.

Jim Porter said...

Amen to your thoughts, Dave! Especially during these times when some of us are not fielding properly the gyrations which the market is providing, it is important to step back and remember where trading and its results should rank on our priority list of life!

Anonymous said...

Aside from the many obvious things I am thankful for, I wanted to post here my gratitude for the important things you have provided me: this blog you post regularly on, the 2 day class you gave in Redmond this fall which pulled it all together for me, and your friday after the market webinar. My wife are on a mission for our church now and have such knowledge and hope now. Thanks. Larry Cragun

Anonymous said...

As I have taken the Investools journey I have been amazed with the high level of committment, effort, and thoroughness provided. It seems that it would be easy for all of you to just sit back and trade. Thank you for your efforts, and thank the investool team for me. As you say, other things are more important, but to those of us that are entering retirement with less income than their fixed retirement can provide, it's everyting to be able to use the tools and education to richly enhance that retirement. .... A fan

Anonymous said...

Dave,
Thank you for your thoughts, quotes, insights and inspiration. You show us probable outcomes in trading and now show us real importance of life. We all have a lot to be thankful for and I truly appreciate you personal observations about what is most important in life.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Gary A

CR said...

Happy Thanksgiving

Anonymous said...

Thanks so much Dave. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

Scott Avery said...

Dave and everyone,
I'm most grateful for my relationship with God as that is the most meaningful relationship in my life. Secondly for my wife, thirdly for my four children. The fourth most important thing I'm thankful for is trading....But that fourth level of gratitude is not as quite as consistent as my other three. It depends on how strong the trend is! Seriously, have a great THANKSGIVING to Dave and everyone else. Scott

Anonymous said...

Blessings both to and for all.

Anonymous said...

Dave,

God has given us so many blessings - our families, our country, our faith, our health, the ability to laugh, to cry, to share, to remember, to heal and to change. When we thank God for the special blessings in our life right now, you as a coach and mentor are always on the list.

You inspire to learn and improve. We are not profitable investors yet, but we keep getting better. We keep learning the nuances from you and how to react in different market circumstances. We keep trying and believe we will ultimately succeed in trading as our business. Thank you for caring so much for all your students. You're an inspiration to us all. Happy Thanksgiving!

Jamee and Sue

SueS said...

I am grateful to have so much. I am thankful to have these opportunities to learn, grow, expand, change and mature. All levels and areas of my life are constantly shifting whether I realize it consciously or not. I'm fortunate to have challenges that bring the shifting into my awareness, allowing me to focus and reach for better. This life is a blessing. thank you to everyone for sharing this path with me.

PENNY STOCK INVESTMENTS said...

High time