Thursday, September 2, 2010

SPX Support Bounce Continuation...

DJIA              10,320.10   +50.63 +0.49%
SP500             1,090.10     +9.81 +0.91%
COMPQ           2,200.01  +23.17 +1.06%
Russell 2000      632.26     +7.27 +1.16%

Exchange     NYSE    NASD
Advancing    2,116     1,656
Declining        883        954

Oil            $74.68  +0.64
Gold $   1,252.70  +5.00
SOX         323.32  +6.57
VIX            23.19  -0.70

Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX        Down            Yes – SPX
SOX       Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Thursday included VECO, DECK, BYI, IPI, GES, USD, SNDK, DLR, A, HAS, CSTR, CRUS, CMG, FLS, AMD, TSL, BUCY, ESI, FAS, URE, CRM, LVS, NFLX, ZION, JEC, UCO, V, AIV, X, WFMI, SPG, DE, MA, POT, BA, PNC, UAUA, LXK, GMCR, CAN, AGU, ATI, TIE, NTRI, UNG, PCLN, VMW, NDAQ, UPS, CLF, PCP, USO, STI, SKX, ICE, UNP, DHR, GME, RMBS, DOW, HANS, WMT, SWK, NETL, WLT, FCX, RVBD, NYX, CAM, AMX

All four broad indexes continue to move higher on Thursday as did many individual stocks. The RUT moved above its 30 DMA for the first time since August 10.

The SPX essentially reached it short term breakout price target while the other three broad indexes moved within a few points of their short term breakout price targets on Thursday.

INDU - large white candle breakout short term target 10,383
SPX - large white candle breakout short term target 1,091
COMPQ - large white candle breakout short term target 2,210
RUT - large white candle breakout short term target 638

Thursday’s rally was broad as all sectors moved higher for the second straight day with the largest gains in Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials and Financials. Advancers led decliners 2.4 to 1 on the NYSE. Thursday’s move was on lighter volume in the SPY as trading was seasonally lighter before the three day Labor Day weekend. Expect volume to again be light on Friday.

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Friday.

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,086, 1,071, 1,056, 1,041

Expect volume to be light on Friday as traders begin to wind down for the three day Labor Day weekend. That doesn’t mean the market won’t go up however. Last year the SPX rose 20 points on Thursday and Friday before the three day weekend. Markets are closed on Monday.

Continue to look at Wednesday’s S1 level as key short term support.

Look to enter bullish trades with a breakout of horizontal resistance or a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Wait to enter bearish setups with a new bounce down from resistance; bounce down from the 30 DMA or break of support.

The VIX fell -0.70 to 23.19 falling below the benchmark 25 level and increasing the probability of stability and continuation of the support bounce.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +1.84 – potential hanging man
QCOM +0.42 – white candle
GOOG +2.84 – doji
BIDU +0.77 – spinning top

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: FLEX, BRCM, AKAM, FWLT, URBN, SBUX, JOYG, FAST, EXPED, FSLR, MRVL, LOGI, BBBY, SHLD and ALTR.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: SYMC, NIHD, ORCL, AMGN, GRMN, ESRX, RYAAY, BIIB, SRCL and RIMM.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, HANS, HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, NTES, CRM, TSL, CLF, FCX, SINA, SPG, UAUA, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DLR, DOW, HSY, NYX, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
A, BYI, FLS, GMCR, GR, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, UAUA
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
FAZ
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, GES, CSTR, FDX, NDAQ, RMBS, X, AKS, AMX, GME, GS, MA, SNDK, BA, CRUS, ACN, ATI, CREE, DECK, FAS, STI, TIE, UCO, USO, V, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, NTRI, ESI, MHS, WHR, BAC, CAT, VECO

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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