Monday, July 12, 2010

SPX in Balance Prior to Positive Earnings from AA...

DJIA          10,216.27  +18.24 +0.18%
SP500          1,078.75   +0.79  +0.07%
COMPQ       2,198.36   +1.91  +0.09%
Russell 2000   621.61   -7.82   -1.24%


Exchange    NYSE   NASD
Advancing   1,080       821
Declining     1,905    1,872

Oil           $74.95 -1.14
Gold   $1,198.50 -11.10
SOX 3       55.33 +3.97
VIX           24.43 -0.55

Index Direction Confirmation
VIX   Down        Yes – SPX
SOX  Up             Yes – COMPQ

AA reports 13 cents vs 12 cents estimate
CSX reports 1.07 vs 98 cents estimate
NVLS reports 66 cents vs 60 cents estimate
 
Earnings of interest of leading companies include:

Tuesday – FAST, INTC
Wednesday – CTAS, MAR
Thursday – AMD, AMX GOOG, JBHT, JPM
Friday – BAC, C, GE

Guidance:
SPX formed another higher high and higher low making its highest close since June 23.
The SPX closed above its 30 DMA for the second straight day.
The VIX did confirm the higher close in the SPX.
The VIX moved lower for the seventh day in a row.
Breadth was weak as decliners led advancers by almost 2 to 1 on the NYSE.

Potential Yellow Alert with the formation of a hanging man on the SPX.  Wait for confirmation.
Continue to trade strong stocks up with an entry signal or bounce continuation.

The entry for down trending stocks is a break below the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -0.55 and closed at 24.43. Volatility stayed below the important 25 level on Monday in front of the beginning of earnings season. If VIX moves lower and stays below 25 this week, look for the SPX rally to continue.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.33QCOM +1.19
GOOG +8.34
BIDU -0.47
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: QCOM, MRVL, CMCSA, MSFT, DISH, SYMC, ESRX, AMZN, STX, DTV, NVDA, GOOG, BRCM, INTC and LRCX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: GRMN, HANS, ILMN, FWLT, WYNN, VRTX, PAYX, FLIR, FSLR, STLD, NIHD, URBN, APOL, JOYG and LIFE.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CHL, CREE, CRUS, GMCR, HANS, TSL, ACN, HSY, ATW, BUCY, CAT, CRM, DLR, FFIV, HAS, HLF, MA, NETL, NFLX, PCLN, PNC, TIE, V, VECO, VMW, AGU, CAM, MCD, NTRI, DE, DOW, GS, STI, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
FAS, SNDK, UAUA, UNP, USD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
AMX, BA, FCX, FLS, GR, IPI, MOS, PCP, USO, X
Staying Below 30 DMA

FAZ, UNG, AIV, CLF, CMG, DECK, LVS, NYX, SKX, SWN, UCO, ICE, SPG, URE, A, AMD, LXK, ATI, DHR, MHS, WHR, WLT, POT, WFMI, WMT, SWK, CSTR, ESI, BYI, JEC, GME, BAC, GES, AKS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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