Saturday, July 24, 2010

SPX Closes Higher...Above 30 and 50 DMA...

DJIA           10,424.62  +102.32 +0.99%
SP500          1,102.66      +8.99 +0.82%
COMPQ        2,269.47   +23.58 +1.05%
Russell 2000    624.24   +15.17 +2.39%

Exchange      NYSE   NASD
Advancing     2,438    2,036
Declining          598      587

Oil          $78.98  -0.32
Gold   $1,187.80  -7.60
SOX        364.53 +1.87
VIX           23.47  -1.16

Index   Direction Confirmation
VIX      Down        Yes – SPX
SOX     Up            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included CMG, BUCY, GES, VECO, ATI, X, FFIV, TIE, CRUS, MOS, CRM NFLX, VMW, WFMI, IPI, FCX, AKS, AGU, NETL, AMD, PCP, DE, GME, CLF, URE, FAS, FLS, DECK, MA, HAS, PNC, UNP, A, BA, CSTR, SWK, CAT, ZION, LVS, STI, JEC, CREE, BYI, HLF

I know there are at least ten readers out there. If you actually pay attention to what I write and act on any of it you were alerted to the Chart Signals Yellow Alert on Monday and to the fact that Yellow Alert turned Green on Tuesday. If you don’t pay attention to my Yellow Alerts, most likely to your own chagrin, then you would have at least paid attention to the bullish harami on Monday, its confirmation on Tuesday by the bullish engulfing pattern, each of which I also alerted you to.

If you actually set and honored stops according to the guidelines I teach, you set your stops below support which would have been below the low on either Monday or Tuesday for many charts. Then you would not have been shaken out by the “Shakedown” on Wednesday and would have made very nice returns on Thursday and Friday.

The SPX rose 37 points for the week in which 12 Dow stocks and 122 SP stocks reported earnings.

Technically each of the indexes finished the week with a horizontal breakout and new price target if the breakout holds:
The SPX closed just above short term horizontal resistance and above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX price target is 1,141.
The INDU closed above short term horizontal resistance and above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The COMPQ closed above short term horizontal resistance and above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
The RUT closed above short term horizontal resistance and above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.

Earnings season continues this week with many more Dow and S&P stocks reporting. However enough stocks have reported that you can now trade a large number of stocks when the entry signal occurs without regard for earnings, since they have already been reported.

This past week the following stocks which were in the Chart Signals Earnings of Interest list closed up for the week on Friday compared with Friday a week ago after reporting earnings:  HAL, HAS, IBM, TXN, ALTR, AAPL, BIIB, CRUS, GILD, LLTC, MICC, BTU, PEP, STLD, UAUA, UNH, AMR, AMLN, BIDU, CA, CHKP, KO, EBAY, FFIV, FCX, GENZ, QCOM, SKW, LCC, UTX, WFC, XLNX, MMM, ALK, AMZN, AMX, AXP, T, BUCY, CAT, CMGM CAL, DHR, DECK, KEY, MSFT, MOS, NUE, PNC, PCP, SIAL, STI, TRV, UNP, UPS, F, HON, OSTK, SLB, SKX, VZ

So find an entry and trade a trend. As always follow your rules.

Both X and AKS report before the market open on Tuesday. Also reporting this week: AKAM, BRCM, CERN, CTXS, ERTS, EXPE, FSLR, ILMN, KLAC, LRCX, MXIM, NIHD, WYNN, XRAY, BA, CVX, DD, MRK, XOM

Guidance:
SPX horizontal breakout...
The SPX forms white candle above its 30 and 50 DMA.
The VIX did confirm the higher close in the SPX.
Breadth was strong as advancers led decliners 4 to 1 on the NYSE.

SPX
Resistance: 1,115, 1,130
Support: 1,100, 1,086, 1,071

Enter strong stocks up with a break above the high of the low day. Stay with stocks in a bounce continuation.

You should already be out of bearish positions on down trending stocks that reversed this past week. Look for entry into down trending when a new break of the low of the high day occurs.

The VIX fell -1.16 and closed at 23.47. Volatility closed below the important 25 level on Friday, confirming the move to the upside. Friday was the lowest close in the VIX since May 3 which is the day before the SPX broke its 1,180 support. This is a significant new low close in the VIX.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +0.91
QCOM -0.03
GOOG +5.25
BIDU +3.61
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: ISRG, GENZ, GOOG, BIDU, APOL, JOYG, FSLR, WYNN, SIAL, CHRW, SRCL, CTSH, CTXS, SHLD and NTAP.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: TEVA, BIIB, AMZN, LIFE, AMGN, ILMN, TYAAY, STX, CEPH, GILD, FLEX, HSIC, NVDA, MRVL and INTC.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CRUS, GMCR, HANS, TSL, BUCY, CAT, CREE, CRM, HLF, NETL, PCLN, TIE, VMW, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, AKS, MOS, POT, CAM, USD, VECO, ATW, DOW, FCX, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, UAUA, WLT, WMT, X, SWK, ACN, AIV, AMX, ATI, BA, CHL, CLF, DLR, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UCO, UNP, URE, USO
Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
CMG, CSTR, FAS, JEC, MA, PNC, STI, V, WFMI
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
NTRI
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, NFLX, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, ZION, HAS, WHR, SNDK, UNG, CLF, DECK, NYX, SKX, SWN, ICE, A, AMD, LXK, DHR, BYI

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

5 comments:

Gaetano Siano said...

What does that mean: Breadth was strong as advancers led decliners 4 to 1 on the NYSE.?

Thanks,
PS: Congrats on Grand Child!!!

Anonymous said...

It means the number of stocks on the NYSE going up on Friday was 4 times the number of stocks going down on Friday. This comparison of the number of many up versus fewer down stocks confirms that institutional buying is strong to the upside.

Dave, feel free to tell me I am wrong.

Don

Jeffrey Samuels said...

Dave, I'm an 11th reader (and ATA live student from SF) who was READY last week and I bought when I was supposed to (long and short), thank you for your guidance, especially while on vacation - Jeffrey Samuels

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your guidance and comments Dave. I follow this blog EVERY Day before I even think about trading!

B.H.

Robert Wales said...

Dave, I look at your blog each day. I have not made comments - but your blog and Friday wrap-up with Sosnof are a ritual for me. I have not made a real "killing" - but I have not "lost my shirt". Barbara and I both wish you and yours a happy and exciting time in Japan. Robert Wales