Tuesday, August 25, 2009

SPX Makes New High Close...

DJIA + 30.01, +0.32% SP500 + 2.43, +0.24% NASDAQ Comp. + 6.25, +0.31% Russell 2000 + 2.98, +0.51% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,830 1,458 Declining 1,185 1,244 Oil $72.05 -$2.32 Gold $944.50 +$2.20 SOX 300.12 +1.58 VIX 24.92 -0.22 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. By the close on Tuesday the SPX and VIX were near unchanged. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLF +1.26%...XLY +1.03%...XLI +0.55% Weakest Sectors: XLE -1.53%...XLU -0.64%...XLB -0.50% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology were stronger than the SPX +0.24%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.26%: PRU, BAC, RF, PNC, IVZ, MS, STT, GS, SPG, NTRS, AFL, JPM, SCHW and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.25%: MA, INTC, GLW, TXN, T, GOOG, YHOO, EMC and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,017 = Friday’s S1 level 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = recent support low in Progress 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX along with the other broad indices rose to new highs for the third straight day and then pulled back again and finished with a new high close. The SPX hit 1,037.75 before closing at 1,028.00, just above its 1,025 price target. As I stated earlier in my webcast, even though the SPX is above 1,025 it is not far enough above to call the 1,025 level support. In other words, even though the SPX is trading intra-day above resistance it is still closing in the zone or area of resistance. Continue to watch Monday’s S1 level at 1,017 and S2 level at 1,009 as important short term support levels. DJIA volume was a moderate 173 million shares on Tuesday. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up. Tuesday’s trading pattern was very similar to Monday, rising to new highs in the morning and pulling back in the afternoon to close with slight gains for the day. Volume was again moderate indicating profit taking rather than heavy selling exiting the trend. Short term traders are still on Yellow Alert and may have an exit on Wednesday if the chart being traded breaks the low of the high day which was Tuesday for many stocks and the broad indices. Stay with trades that continue to move in the direction of the trend. Intermediate term traders likely will sit tight. As always follow your rules. The majority of our Flag and Breakout Setups continued to progress. A few pulled back modestly and they are listed separately. Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: JCI, WYNN, JOYG, GRMN, AGCO, SPG, CERN Flag Patterns in Progress that pulled back on Tuesday: X, DOW Breakout Setup in Progress: DE, AGU, MA, DD, CAT, BDK, FWLT, AXP, BAC, FLS, JCG, HOLX, STT, ZION Breakouts that pulled back on Tuesday: JEC, WHR, WLT Key stocks BA, BAC, HD, INTC, JPM, MCD, MRK, and TRV were strong on Tuesday. AAPL +0.34 QCOM -0.42 GOOG +2.64 – Moved our stop to 468, the T2 price of the virtual trade entered at 431.30 BIDU +2.82 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included WCRX, WYNN, BBBY, GENZ, ORLY, FSLR, LINTA, COST, URBN, EXPE, SHLD, CTSH, ROST, OLX, GRMN, INTC, APOL, INFY, SBUX, ESRX, FWLT, BIDU, JOYG and GOOG. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, PSYS, MHS, AMED, AMX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, FUQI, JOSB, BAP, CAM, EBAY, FAS, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, RBN, AFAM, FLS, VAR, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, JEC, HLF, BIIB, ATW, GES, HDB, ORCL, STRA, MON, MUR, BIDU, ESRX, GPRO, GXDX, ICE, JW.A, RIMM, BDX, DLTR, K, PWR, SLGN, NTLS
(click image to enlarge)
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 NFLX, MCD, TRLG Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 APEI, SWN, ACN Staying Below 30 DMA DECK, RCI, VPRT, CHL, DLB, GME, JCOM, SPWRA, AMZN, GMCR, PPD, MYGN, ALGT, GILD, FSLR, SYNA, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

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