Wednesday, August 12, 2009

SPX Bounces...Fed Holds Rates Steady...

DJIA + 120.16, +1.30% SP500 + 11.46, +1.15% NASDAQ Comp. + 28.99, +1.47% Russell 2000 + 10.05, +1.79% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,247 1,932 Declining 827 795 Oil $70.16 +$0.71 Gold $950.70 +$4.90 SOX 295.88 +5.14 VIX 25.45 -0.54 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX confirmed the Nasdaq's rise. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.03%...XLK +2.01%...XLI +1.75% Weakest Sectors: XLP -0.04%...XLU +0.48%...XLV +0.54% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Technology and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +1.15%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.03%: C, ALL, AFL, KEY, PRU, TRV, MET, GS, CB, STT, JPM, IVZ, BK, CME and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +2.01: ADBE, DELL, AMAT, ORCL, QCOM and SYMC. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 996 = July 30 high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX presented the almost perfect for trading a support bounce. After opening almost where the SPX closed on Tuesday the index started moving up in an unusually orderly manner which made support bounce entries easier than normal. The SPX rose until the Fed announced no change in interest rates and then had a 38% Fib retracement pull back to 1,003 and then rallied to a new intra-day high at 1,012 before a final pull back into the close of 1,005.81. Once again closing just below 1,007 horizontal resistance. Many of the setups that we shared with you in Tuesday’s post had very nice support bounces. Flag Setups in Progress: ALTR, LLTC, MRVL, CELG, TEVA, DLB, JOYG, HANS, GILD, USD, UYG, FAS and URE. (click image to enlarge) (click image to enlarge) Key stocks AA, BA, CAT, HPQ, JPM, MSFT, TRV, VZ and UTX were strong on Wednesday. AAPL +2.48 QCOM +97 cents GOOG +4.64 BIDU +2.80 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included WYNN, FLIR, LRCX, JOYG, WCRX, MXIM, ERTS, HOLX, NVDA, MRVL, ADBE, DELL, AMAT, VRSN, ADSK, PCAR, CTXS and CTSH. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA and BDK continue to perform very well. GRMN has slipped negative but not hit its stop. BAC rose 57 cents in after-hours trading on news that hedge fund manager Paulson had become the fourth largest shareholder in BAC over the past quarter. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 AMZN, DECK, MYGN, ORCL, RCI Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA ESRX, RIMM, ALGT, HDB, PPD, SWN, APEI, GILD, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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