Tuesday, June 23, 2009

I'm So Dizzy My Head is Spinning...

DJIA - 16.10, -0.19% SP500 + 2.06, +0.23% NASDAQ Comp. - 1.27, -0.07% Russell 2000 - 3.04, -0.62% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,424 1,098 Declining 1,559 1,607 Oil $69.24 +$1.74 – August contract Gold $923.70 +$3.30 SOX 253.66 -0.94 VIX 30.58 -0.59 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. Essentially both indexes were unchanged for the day. Strongest Sectors: XLU +1.29%...XLF +1.15%...XLE +0.60% Weakest Sectors: XLY -1.02%...XLI -0.93%...XLU -0.88% Five of nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. Materials, Financials and Energy were stronger than the SPX +0.23%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.15%: MS, TROW, AFL, GS, IVZ, BAC, JPM, PRU, USB, MET, PNC, WFC, SPG, ALL, BK and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.06%: MA, AMT, T, VZ, ADBE, GLW, AMAT, CSCO, INTC, SYMC, MSFT and QCOM. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY, XLE Sideways: XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 897 = 50 DMA 903 – 905 = horizontal, 200 DMA & Monday’s R1 920 - 930 = horizontal 944 – 956 = January/June horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 875 = horizontal “I’m so dizzy my head is spinning, Like a whirlpool it never ends And it’s you girl, making it spin You’re making me dizzy.” These lyrics of a blast from the past came to my mind as I looked at numerous stock charts today many of which had, you guessed it…spinning tops. There are spinning tops on charts all the time, but I can’t remember the last time I saw soooo many spinning top on the hard right edge. Yes, it definitely is the pause before the Fed. Existing Home Sales came in at 4.77M below estimates of 4.85M, which was an increase of 2.4% and the highest level since October. The SPX had a small bounce after the news, which was considered positive but mixed and then traded in a tight 10 point range between 888 and 898 for the balance of the day, closing at 895. The market seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for the Fed announcement tomorrow at 2:15 pm ET. Before the open Durable Goods Orders are expected to be down -0.5% and at 10 am ET New Home Sales are expected to report at 365K. We would expect the market to look to the Fed announcement unless there is a negative surprise in these reports. As always trade according to your rules. Educational stocks APEI, CECO, COCO, CPLA, DV, EDU, ESI and STRA moved lower again. APOL gained 6 cents. Remember a bullish harami is a variation of a spinning top. Coal, Ag-related and other stocks forming a bullish harami: RIMM, VPRT, JEC, ANR, BTU, CNX MEE, MOS, IPI, CF, GS, MS, AEM, GDX and SCHN. A few stocks broke the high of the low day: GG, GOLD, NEM, AGU and POT.
(click image to enlarge)
Index Commentary The DJIA moved formed a black spinning top…three month chart target 10,340…volume was a below average 237 million shares…closed below its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The SPX formed a black spinning top…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed below its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a black spinning top…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a large black candle…broke below its 200 DMA….3 month chart target 606…closed below its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA.
At the Open on Tuesday SPY – spinning top below 50 DMA QQQQ – spinning top below 30 DMA FUQI – bearish engulfing above 20 DMA ESRX – bull flag above 20 DMA DECK – spinning top above 20 DMA AAPL – spinning top above 30 DMA NFLX – spinning top above 30 DMA QCOM – hammer above 30 DMA SHLD – spinning top above 30 DMA MRVL – hammer at 30 DMA STT – doji at 30 DMA ADBE – hammer below 30 DMA PCLN – hammer below 30 DMA ICE – hammer below 30 DMA JOYG – piercing line below 30 DMA FLS – spinning top below 30 DMA X – hammer above 30 DMA FAS – spinning top below 50 DMA SPG – spinning top below 50 DMA Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, VPRT, BAP, GR, K, DV, CPLA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, AAPL, GXDX, ORCL, DECK, CPLA, MYGN, DV, STRA, GILD, JW.A, ACN, APEI, PSYS, ESRX, NFLX, BYI, FAZ Moving Above 30 DMA = 4 JOYG, MHS, NTLS, PPD Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 BLUD, CBST, HDB, JCOM, WRC Staying Below 30 DMA AFAM, AMZN, ATW, BAP, BIIB, FLS, GMCR, HLF, ICE, JEC, NIHD, PCLN, RBN, SLGN, SNHY, USD, VAR, CHL, ESI, PCP, SWN, MUR, RIMM, SPWRA, AMX, ATW, BYI, CAM, CLB, GES, MOS, PWR, SLGN, CTSH, EBAY, FAS, MON, PCP, RCI, SNA, TDG, TRLG, URE, UYG, DLTR, EZPW, WAB, FSLR, WCG, WMT, DLB, JOSB, HANS, AMED, PETS, ALGT, GME, GPRO, BKC Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have a question about seeing many "hammers below the 30dma." Normally, a hammer at support would "potentially" suggest a bounce but with many of the hammers below the 30dma does this still suggest a bounce? Would we see the 30DMA as a resistance level that the bounce could test and fall away from? I realize the market will do what the market will do but just wondered what the most probable scenario would be with the hammer at support but below the 30dma. Any input is greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Dave Johnson said...

It depends on the chart and the other tecnical evidence including the strength of its trend. The 30 DMA is not the only valid support area. A hammer can be below the 30 DMA and still be a sign of buyers coming back into the prior uptrend.

Dave

Unknown said...

Another Spinning Top reference from (My Fave) group, XTC:

"I'm like a spinning top
Going round and around
Well I don't know what's up
And I sure don't know what's down"