Friday, June 5, 2009

Spinning Top Friday...

DJIA + 12.89, +0.15% SP500 - 2.37, -0.25% NASDAQ Comp. - 0.60, -0.03% Russell 2000 - 1.32, -0.25% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,405 1,249 Declining 1,531 1,470 Oil $68.44 -$0.37 Gold $961.70 -$19.50 SOX 270.74 -5.25 VIX 29.62 -0.56 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLK +0.99%...XLI +0.85%...XLV +0.19% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.43%...XLF -0.88%...XLE -0.82% Only four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Technology, Industrials, Healthcare and Utilities were stronger than the SPX -0.25%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.88%: AOC, MMC, TRV, BAC, GS, CME, MS and CB. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.99% include: HPQ, ADBE, MSFT, ADP and CSCO. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK, XLY, XLE Sideways: XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 944 = January horizontal 962 = 161.8% Fib extension Key support levels: 930 = horizontal & 200 DMA 913 = Friday’s S1 907 = Friday’s S2 899 = Thursday’s S1 875 = horizontal The SPX trend is up for the past 13 weeks. The month of May was a period of sideways consolidation for four weeks during which a horizontal resistance area of 925 to 930 had been formed. In January a horizontal resistance high of 944 was established. On Monday, the 930 resistance area was broken and the SPX rose to 948 before closing at 943. On Tuesday the index touched 949 and then fell to a low of 923 on Wednesday before closing at 932 or the prior horizontal resistance area. Thursday formed a higher low of 929 and moved higher. On Friday the ES (S&P) futures broke through the 945 resistance touching 957.50 in pre-market trading on the jobless claims report and sold off after the cash SPX opened. The SPX high on Friday was 951.69 and closed -2.37 at 940.09. Friday was a high day and gives short term traders a Yellow Alert for Monday. Just keep in mind that other than Monday this week was more consolidation than up trending. For the week the SPX was up 21 points and traded its smallest weekly trading range at 28.53 points. Going into next week look for consolidation to continue between the 925 - 945 range until either resistance or support is broken. Because consolidation patterns are trend continuation patterns, when a break out occurs the chart suggests it will be to the up side in the direction of the current up trend. Maintain mental flexibility if a lower probability downside break out occurs. Key Nasdaq stocks BIDU, AMZN, ADBE, MSFT, ADP CSCO, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, SYMC, ORCL and QCOM moved higher. Gold dropped over $19 and oil prices fell 37 cents leading gold and oil stocks lower on Friday. (click image to enlarge) Index Commentary The DJIA formed a spinning top and a new high close…closed above 200 DMA for the second time in as many days…three month chart target 10,340…volume was a below average 255 million shares …closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The SPX formed a spinning top …3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a spinning top…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a spinning top….3 month chart target 606…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. At the Open on Friday SPY – black spinning top +0.02% KOL – black candle +0.99% USD – bearish engulfing -2.94% FAS – black spinning top -2.19% JOYG – breakout continuation three white soldiers +5.92% BIDU – white candle +3.64% ADBE – white spinning top new high close +1.83% X – spinning top +1.77% ISRG – white spinning top above 200 DMA +0.33% FWLT – black spinning top +0.29% SHLD – hanging man +0.20% UNG – white spinning top confirms hammer +0.06% NTAP – hammer -0.21% ORLY – black spinning top -0.63% OSG – black spinning top -0.69% ZION – black spinning top -1.16% CTV – black spinning top -1.48% Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, CBST, AAPL, AFAM, DLTR, ESRX, GES, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC, DECK, FAS, WMT, CPLA, JEC, MYGN, PWR, URE, AMZN, DV, EZPW, JCOM, JOSB, NTLS, SNA, SNHY, STRA, BLUD, GILD, SLGN Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 JW.A, MHS Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 FSLR Staying Below 30 DMA APEI, WAB, DLB, ESI, HANS, URE, MON, AMED, PETS, PWR, ALGT, NFLX, GME, GPRO, BKC Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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