Friday, June 5, 2009

Futures Jump in Pre-Market as Jobless Claims Fall...

11:19 am ET - I regularly mention how economic reports almost never alter the market trend but that they can accelerate a trend or increase volatility for a day or two. That certainly has been the case this morning as the Jobless Claims and Unemployment report gave a pre-market bump (accelerated the trend) to the futures and then in a classic gap situation sold off a the open (increased volatility) for the first 45 minutes. This type of price action can create opportunity for the saavy trader and be fraught with peril for the non-logical trader. The saavy trader who is long generally rides through the volatiliy realizing before hand it is almost always temporary and that the trend generally resumes. The saavy trader who is looking to enter can use the pull back to enter positions at more favorable price levels. The non-logical trader often loses sight of the trend and over reacts to the temporary increase in volatility and sells positions in an untimely manner. A quick review of the Model Portfolio this morning shows the following stocks with some interesting chart action: BIDU, FLS, GES, GMCR, GR, JOYG, KOL, NIHD, PCP, RIMM, SPWRA, TDG and WRC. 10:43 am ET - The SPX pulled back to 934 before bouncing this morning...this is a higher low on the daily chart from Thursday's low of 929... 9:49 am ET - ES gap has closed with pull back to 940... 9:37 am ET - ES is pulling back from pre-market high...we are looking for a support entry this morning... BMO - ES +14 and NQ +15 are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open after Jobless Claims fell to 345,000 the lowest number since September last year. This is a brekaout above the 944 horizontal resistance area and if it holds look for the SPX along with other indices to begin a move to their next resistance level. For the SPX that is the 1,007 area. (That is not a forecast for today, it is the next horizontal resistance on the chart from November.) XLI Industirals, XLF Financials and XLB Materials sectors are leading in pre-market. Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – break high of low day KOL – break high of low day USD – break high of low day FAS – break high of low day CTV – bullish harami JOYG – breakout X – bullish harami ADBE – bullish engulfing OSG – bullish harami ZION – white spinning top UNG – hammer NTAP – bullish harami FWLT – white candle support bounce SHLD – breakout ISRG – spinning top above 200 DMA ORLY – black spinning top BIDU – white spinning top

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

By following Chart Signal's, and your Trading Rooms, I make fewer mistakes. Thank You for all your help.

Jim Ehorn