Monday, March 16, 2009

Looks Like a Key Reversal Day...

I know you are busy…in fact when I was first asked to start a blog by those who listened to me once a week but wanted to know what I was thinking every day, I delayed for a whole year, because I was busy too and I knew it would take time to put what I see and think each day into writing…and I knew it was my personal time that I would be using…I finally took the plunge a year ago and I think it has been a good experience for you and meI would like to make some enhancements for your benefit to the blog, both in what I share and how I share it…but before I do, I am asking for your insight as a regular reader of this blog…I know you are busy and that it is easy to think someone else will give their input, so Dave won’t need mine (apparently they are thinking the same thing you are)…actually several already have and I am very appreciative to those who have taken the time out of their busy day to give me feedback…their insights are very helpful…however, the feedback I have received is not yet a valid sample sizewhat that means to the non-statistical types is that if I take their insight and add it to mine, it is essentially still guessing at what most of you find useful on Chartsignals…Sooooo…I’m asking you…yes, YouWill you please take just a moment now to email me at chartsignals@yahoo.com and tell me: What information in Chartsignals do you find useful right now? The benefit of taking a moment is that I won’t delete something that is useful to you and I will delete information that is not that useful…and Chartsignals will become a more effective and efficiently delivered source of what I see and what I’m thinking every day…I do appreciate everyone that is willing to help me help youDave DJIA - 7.01, -0.10% SP500 - 2.66, -0.35% NASDAQ Comp. - 27.48, -1.92% Russell 2000 - 6.73, -1.71% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,198 1,207 Declining 1,590 1,552 Oil $47.35 +$1.10 Gold $922.00 -$8.10 SOX 212.16 -7.95 VIX 43.74 +1.38 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLU +2.71%...XLB +1.57%...XLP +1.56% Weakest Sectors: XLY -2.36%...XLF -1.95%...XLV -1.08% Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLB, XLU Stocks rose in early trading Monday only to reverse and move lower by the afternoon. The financial sector which had been the leading sector ETF early Monday fell to the next to the weakest sector by the end of the day. . Technically, the indices had a key reversal day with stock prices opening and moving higher only to have sellers push prices down to close near their low of the day. For many stocks Monday is the high day of the recent support bounce and a break below the low of the high day on Tuesday would represent a bearish entry signal and an exit signal on short term bullish trades. Some stocks broke the low of the high day today. The Financial Sector XLF fell -1.95%. Leading financial stocks which gained 1%+ included MET, ZION, AFL, KEY, STT, PRU and USB. Remember that all of these stocks are in intermediate term down trends. Learn the Discipline We closed positions in FAS at 5.11, UYG at 2.33 and stopped out on AMZN at 66.74. All three trades were profitable. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a tombstone doji right at its 50% Fib retracement (Feb 9) and at its 30 DMA. This is also the high day. Watch for a potential break of the low of the high day. The SPX formed a shooting star ath the 30 DMA and the 50% Fib Retracements (Feb 9). Today is the high day in the counter trend. Watch for a potential break of the low of the high day on Tuesday. The Nasdaq formed a bearish engulfing which confirmed Friday’s hanging man at its 50% Fib retracement (Feb 9) and its 30 DMA. Today is also the high day in this counter trend move. A bearish engulfing requires no confirmation. The RUT formed a bearish engulfing that confirmed Friday’s hanging man at its 38.2% Fib retracement (Feb 8) and just above its 20 DMA. This is also the high day. A bearish engulfing requires no confirmation. At the Open on Tuesday Counter Trend Up in a Down Trend SPY – bearish harami at 30 DMA in bear flag BA – shooting star above 20 DMA in bear flag WHR – black spinning top at 30 DMA in bear flag BDK – shooting star at 30 DMA in bear flag DE – shooting star at 30 DMA in bear flag WYNN – bearish engulfing at 20 DMA in bear flag ADS – shooting star/bearish harami at 30 DMA in bear flag DECK – bearish engulfing at 20 DMA in bear flag VNO – evening star at 30 DMA in bear flag SPG – evening star at 30 DMA in bear flag FWLT – shooting star confirms shooting star at 30 DMA in bear flag Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks: Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, MOS, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, MON, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, AMX, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PCLN, PETS, WMT Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 ATW, GR Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 FSLR, MYGN, SYNA, SNHY Staying Below 30 DMA EBAY, GME, SLGN, WRC, CPLA, ESRX, GES, PSYS, CHL, DECK, GILD, MHS, TDG, SPWRA, AMED, BIIB, GXDX, PCP, RBN, DV, ESI, VAR, WCG, BLUD, JW.A, MUR, ORCL, RCI, SWN, HLF, STRA, PCR, RIMM, BDX, BYI, PPD, ACN, NIHD, K, NTLS, HDB, CBST, SNA, AFAM, MCD, EZPW, WAB, FAS, UYG Monday’s Action (=> +$0.70 or -$0.70) Moving Up: MON, PCLN, CNX, AGU Moving Down: STRA, BIDU, FSLR, GS, MA, SOHU, MS, SINA, PNRA, AEM, ANR, NDAQ, AFAM, NEM, HANS, ONXX, BRCM, POT, MOS Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – Nasdaq; Down – DJIA, SPX, RUT Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Observation, I noticed that the Nasdaq was negative for much of the early day compared to the other indices. I thought about why and did the fibs on the Nasdaq, NDX, Q's etc. They had already reached their 50% retracement on Friday where as the other indices had not. That divergence between them and the other Indices suggested to me that the 50% might be all we get to now and helped me be prepared for this possible reversal day.
Anyone have any comments on that? Always a possibility that we may go up again from here but it seemed like the Nasdaq based indices were leading the way and even today they all closed with candle patterns that look a little more bearish.....