Thursday, July 17, 2008

Oil Down Again, Stocks Up, After Close Earnings Disappoint

DJIA + 207.38, +1.85% SP500 + 14.96, +1.20% NASDAQ Comp. + 27.45, +1.20% Russell 2000 + 9.88, +1.44% Oil closed at $129.29 down $5.31 Oil continued to move lower attributed to concerns that slower economic growth will reduce demand for oil. USO, the oil ETF, was down 3.41% to 105.53. XLE, the energy ETF, which closed below its 200 DMA on Wednesday fell another 1.48%. Financial stocks were strong for the second straight day. XLF, the financial ETF, was up another 4.33% and closed 10 cents above it 20 DMA. JPM rose on better than expected earnings. FNM rose another 18% and FRE was up 21%. Ag-related, mining, steel and coal stocks moved lower today. Today was the biggest day for earnings releases so far. In after hours earnings…MER reported a $4.6 billion loss and the stock was down over 6% in after-hours trading…GOOG was down over $40 or 7.56% in after hours trading as earnings disappointed…IBM traded slight lower in after-hours…COF is down over 5% in after-hours…AMD was down 6.6% or 35 cents in after-hours…GILD is down over 4% or $2.40 in after-hours…MSFT was down over 6% or $1.80. Earnings on C, HON and SLB are scheduled to be released before the market opens on Friday. With the market up for the second straight day we have changed our short-term trend status to up. Index Commentary The DJIA had it second large white candle on Thursday. The DJIA closed above its July 2 high and its 20 DMA. This is still a counter trend support bounce and it is the strongest bounce since April when the index was in an up trend. The SPX was finished below its 20 DMA and July 9 high.

The Nasdaq moved above its July 2 high and also closed above its 20 DMA.

The RUT which was relatively stronger broke through a double bottom resistance that gives the index a 720 price target. The RUT closed above its 20 DMA.

The SOX which is an important subset of the Nasdaq market rose 2.3% and closed above its 20 DMA. Each of these indices are in a counter trend bounce which is probable to form into either an bear flag for another pull back to test the support lows or congest sideways to form a higher low. Watch the Fibonacci retracements for hidden levels of support if the markets pull back. Stock Commentary RIMM rallied into its 200 DMA where sellers appeared. GS rose to a horizontal resistance area of 185 where sellers appeared and pushed prices below its high. GS closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. X broke below support generating a price target of 124. STLD fell to support which if broken will generate a price target of 25. MEE fell to support around 67 which if broken would generate a price target of 47. Conintue to follow Wednesday's C - Pattern Setups and the Down trending support bounce stocks from the NDX. Thursday’s Action Moving Up: MA, GS, BIDU, MS, V, MER, STRA, LEH, DECK, ESRX, SHOHU, UAUA Moving Down: FSLR, POT, ANR, MOS, X, SCHN, CNX, MEE, NUE, CLF, BTU, CF, AGU, EBAY, USO, MTL, IPI, MON, DRYS, AAPL, PCLN, JASO Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave,
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Peggy