Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Have We Mentioned This is a Down Trend?

Financial media is attributing today's lower stock prices to Bernacke's comments before congress regarding issues with energy prices, tighter credit conditions, weak housing and price inflation. Which of these issues are new? Which of these issues did you not know about before today? Which of these issues did big money not know about before today? How about this: "Markets continued moving down on Tuesday because they are in a down trend. Since no one has come up with solutions to issues that have been known for months and nothing has changed to convince big money to become net buyers instead of net sellers, which they started doing back in October of 2007, they kept selling today. Oh, by the way big money also cashed in on some profits by selling ag-related stocks this morning and with the drop of over $6 in oil prices this morning they sold oil stocks too." The reality is this, it is very seldom when the fed speaks that the intermediate term trend changes. Why? Because the fed generally pontificates on what is already known. Since it is already known, big money, which has plently of economists and analysts on staff to keep them informed of what is already known, has already posititioned themselves, before the fed spoke, for what everybody already knew. We know that the previous sentence is a complex sentence that would give our high school english teacher fits, but so be it. The trend is down in the broad market and will continue to be down until some big money sees prices levels they can no longer resist. As of this moment the market doesn't seem to be there quite yet. Having said that markets zig zag they don't just go in one direction only, so stay mentally flexible for any support bounce that does occur and trade your rules. Dave's Insight: Trade the trend right and you'll generally be pleased with the result. With oil prices down FSLR and coal stocks KOL, ANR, BTU, CNX and MEE are down also. Ag-reldated stocks POT, MOS, CF and AGU are lower this morning. Tuesday's Early Action: Moving Up: (almost nothing) GRMN, LEH, NKE Moving Down: (almost everythin) FSLR, BIDU, MOS, POT, CF, X, CLF, CNX, MA, AGU, USO, ANR, PCLN, BTU, SOHU, MON, SCHN, AAPL, FWLT, IPI, V, DECK, RIMM, MTL, NUE, AMZN

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