Monday, July 21, 2008

AAPL, AXP Disappoint After Hours, Trading Lower

DJIA - 29.23, -0.25% SP500 - 0.68, -0.05% NASDAQ Comp. - 3.25, -0.14% Russell 2000 + 4.55, +0.66% Oil closed at $131.04 up $2.16 Monday started out on a plus side as both BAC and UB exceeded earnings estimates before the market open. Oil began to rise over concerns over potential hurricane weather in the Gulf. Ag-related, steel and coal stocks rebounded today. Some of the financials began to fade after three plus strong days. FRE closed lower today and FNM closed well below its highs of the day. XLF closed just 8 cents higher today. Monday started the week with the positive earnings from financials but the negative from rising oil prices. Key earnings after the close on AAPL and AXP brought negative surprises that sent both stocks and others lower after the close. AAPL earnings were fine but their guidance moving forward was below expectations. AAPL was down over $16 and AXP was down over $4 in after-hours trading. GOOG, BIDU and RIMM moved lower in sympathy in after-hours trading. While these stocks can rebound and open at higher prices in the morning keep an eye on key technology. If the after-hours trading is any idea for tomorrow, expect the Nasdaq to move lower. A lot of stocks like RIMM are in bear flag counter trend bounces since last week and AAPL may be just enough to send them rolling down. Watch for stocks that break the low of the high day, break bear flag support or confirm bearish candle patterns as signals for another move down. Tuesday morning key earnings include CAT, CME, KEY, WB, BIIB and AKS. After the close, notable releases include BRCM, CHRW, ILMN, ISRG, LRCX, LLTC and YHOO. AAPL appears to have set the tone for a down day on Tuesday and we’ll find out if Tuesday morning’s releases with offset or add to the downside tomorrow. Index Commentary The DJIA finished with a bearish harami in a potential bear flag pattern. The SPX followed Friday’s hanging man with a spinning top. The Nasdaq finished with a bearish engulfing pattern. The RUT finished with a white spinning top. Consider DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM for bearish trades if you see the indexes rolling over. Monday’s Action Moving Up: POT, MOS, X, MEE, CF, CNX, MON, CLF, AGU, BIDU, BTU, SCHN, IPI, ANR, NUE, USO, RIMM, FSLR, GRMN, SOHU, AAPL, MTL Moving Down: MA, PCLN, STRA, MS, GS, V, V, BRCM, IBM, LEH Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down Short Term Market Trend: Up

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