Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Starting a New Bear Flag?

DJIA + 4.40, +0.04% SP500 + 7.68, +0.58% NASDAQ Comp. + 32.98, +1.39% Russell 2000 + 8.38, +1.18% Oil closed at $134.55 down $2.45 The market opened stronger, became volatile around the Fed announcement and settled down from the day’s high and up for the day. Advancers led decliners 2.177 to 952 on the NYSE and 1,848 to 1,028 on the Nasdaq. As we have stated on many occaisons the intermediate trend of the market seems unchanged by today's announcement. Extra volatiliity but no trend change. The DJIA finished the day with an inverted hammer that failed to rise above the R1 horizontal resistance on Friday’s large black candle. The S&P also formed an inverted hammer that did rise above R1 but closed below R1 by the end of the day. The Nasdaq, relatively stronger than the DJIA and S&P, formed a morning star pattern which perhaps is the start of a new bear flag pattern. Keep your eye on the 2,430 horizontal resistance which was the support between the double top. The Nasdaq is likely forming a bear flag. The Russell (RUT) formed a bullish harami and closed right at the broken neckline of its head and shoulders top. Watch for the formation of a lower high and a bear flag here also. RIMM gapped down more $11 on its earnings announcement after the close. Ag-related stocks continued their bull flag pattern today. Watch for potential support bounce entry over the next few days. POT found some buyers between its 20 and 30 DMA but closed lower for the day. CF formed a doji at its 158 horizontal support level. MOS found buyers between its 20 and 30 DMA and essentially formed a piercing line candle. AGU closed down 10 cents for the day but closed up from its open to form a white candle. MON fell to its 50 DMA where buyers stepped in the stock rose to close above its 30 DMA and formed doji. Coal sector stocks appear to be forming bull flag patterns. Watch for entry opportunities. KOL - ETF formed a hammer BTU formed a bearish engulging pattern MEE bounced from low of the day CNX a support bounce off the 20 DMA ANR formed a hammer BIDU had a major support bounce off of the 200 DMA with a non-idealized morning star pattern. MA gapped up on the open, faded back and still ended strong for the day. DRYS had a bull flag support bounce and closed at its 200 DMA. A potential Dave’s C-entry is setting up. AAPL had a bull flag support bounce, but did trade $2 lower in the after-market after RIMM gapped down after releasing earnings. DECK formed a doji in the area of 145 horizontal resistance. Down Trending MER formed a doji in a bear flag. MS closed below its open in a potential bear flag. LEH formed a shooting star in a potential bear flag.

Wednesday’s Action Moving Up: BIDU, MA, DRYS, AAPL, DECK, STRA, MOS, X, SOHU, CELG, FSLR, RIMM, GS, ESRX, MTL, PCLN, IBM, SCHN, AMZN Moving Down: POT, MON, BTU, CNX, MEE, USO, CF, CLF, FWLT Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down Short Term Market Trend: Down

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