Thursday, June 26, 2008

No Surprise the Down Trend Continues

Someone said to me this morning, "I'm disappointed to see the market down this morning. I wanted to go bullish." I responded, "I'm going to do this new program, it's called 'The Trend.'" They laughed. Dave's Insight: It doesn't matter what you want. The only thing that matters is what is. How many of you have heard, Dave's Insight: Trade the Market, not you thoughts? We're not joking about this trend concept. We've stated this over and over and over again, Dave's Insight: The Trend is the Most Important Factor in every trade. Here's a Dave's Insight: The Trend almost always trumps the news. We've also stated and posted here that there are very few economic announcements that change the intermediate term trend. We told you to look for some extra volatility yesterday and then when it was over look for the trend to continue. We'll apparently it is this morning. This philosophical focus is invigorating this early in the morning! Futures are down, which as you know, we know doesn't always always mean the market will be down today, however, the trend is also down and with the bounce we had yesterday and the reality is that nothing changed yesterday, it likely is a good indication that the already existant down trend will continue. Rememer, even though most stocks trend with the market, trade the trend on the stock you are trading. Pre-Market: Stocks to Watch RIMM is down from their earnings release last night. MEE, CNX, ANR, BTU are up in the pre-market. We'll be back a little later this morning after our webcast...

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

DJ,

Thanks for continuing to impress that point! I recommend that everyone who reads this blog pay close attention to Dave's trend lessons. Taking the time to fully understand trend as Dave outlined it, is the most important thing I've done to help improve my investing in the last few years, that plus learning to have patience...

Thanks,
MJ :-)

Anonymous said...

Dave,
Your comment that "most stocks follow the market trend but trade the trend of the stock that you are trading." Does that mean we should mainly focus on the stock trend?
Thanks, Derek

Pam said...

All I can say is WOW! What a day. Fortunately I stayed with the trend in my index trades and this was the type of day I was waiting for. I'll be interested to hear what you have to say for the remainder of the month. I've heard that the last few days of the quarter tend to be bullish on oversold stocks, bearish on overbought. Do you think there's any validity to that in this instance, or do you think the trend will override that?

Thanks, Dave. Your insights are so helpful.

Pam

Dave Johnson said...

MJ,
Listen to this gal, she knows what she is talking about from real world experience. You go gal! :)
DJ

Dave Johnson said...

Derek,
Yes, I mean trade the trend of the stock, ETF or index that you are trading. There will always be some trends that go counter to the overall market. So a trader must trade the trend of what they have a position in at that moment.
Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Pam,
What you are citing is that some say there tends to be a bullish counter trend in bearish stocks and a bearish counter trend in bullish stocks in the last few days of a quarter. I'm sure that occurs at the end of some quarters. But does it occur regularly enough to create a tradeable strategy? I frankly have no idea. I also believe if a trader sticks with their proven strategy it wouldn't matter anyway because they would act on any signals that there system generates during that time period whether the cited action is occuring or not.
Dave