Wednesday, January 14, 2015

SPX Lower after Weak Retails Sales Report and Negative Earnings Reactions on JPM, WFC...Oil, Natural Gas Rise...

Two sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLU, XLE and XLV were the strongest sectors and XLF was the weakest.
 
Breadth was weakened as decliners led advancers 1.52 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.75 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – NASDAQ strengthened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 1.22 at 200.86 on 192.9 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 0.92 at 21.48…
TNX down .53 at 18.37…
TLT up 1.00 at 132.82...
XLF down .34 at 23.50 on 57.9 million shares

AAPL down .42 at 109.80 on 48.9 million shares
FB down .17 at 76.28…on 25.9 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM -0.40%, QQQ -0.55%, SPY -0.60%, DIA -1.09%.

S&P futures fell before the open on a weaker than expected December retail sales report with a downside surprise at -0.9%, excluding gas and auto retail sales were still down -0.3%.  Economic reports generally have a short-term effect and just before 2 pm ET, the SPX fell to last week’s short-term support level at 1,992 where buyers again stepped in and the SPX rallied over 20 points in the last two hours of trading.

The SPX has closed lower for seven of the first nine trading days in 2015.

SPX leaders included GME, NFX, OKE, CHK, MHK, MNST, EOG, PXD, STJ, ISRG and TSN.   

Oil +2.51, +5.4% rallied and natural gas +0.34, +11.7% was up for the second straight day.  UNG gained +11.65% to close at 16.68.

Q4 earnings season continued today as JPM -2.03, -3.45% gapped lower and -0.60, -1.16% opened lower and closed above it opening price.

LLTC +0.45, +1.00% gapped higher after earnings on Tuesday but closed below its open forming a black candle.

MNST +4.62, +4.09% price target raised to 130 by Stifel Nicolaus.

RUT Movers:  XON, BBRY, RSPP, HLSS, ADVS, ESPR, SLCA, PE, PDCE, FANG, MTDR, ZLTQ, SYRG, PENN, NPO

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 203.91, 205.10, 208.97...
QQQ = 102.44, 103.11, 105.26
IWM = 117.89, 118.72, 121.41…
Support Levels
SPY = 198.85, 196.77...
QQQ = 99.62, 98.20
IWM = 114.36, 112.61...

Earnings this week:
Thursday:  BAC, C, INTC, FAST, TSM

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – SNX, LLTC,

More than 10% -

Negative Reactions – AA, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - KBH,

Reversal in progress –

Reversal of Initial Reaction –


The SPX Market Forecast is pointed down at 50.

___________________


20 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Wednesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MNST, ISRG, GILD, SPLS, ATVI, NXPI, EA, LLTC, GOOG, CELG

Lagging NDX stocks included: VIAB, TSLA, DISCA, CHTR, ALTR, MU, TRIP, ROST, CTXS, ALXN

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday: UNG, BBRY, GME, GPRO, JCP, BBY

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: AA, ATI, CREE, FAS, UAL, SCHW, AMBA, DAL, BAC, MS, ETFC, X, CAR, V


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 23
ROST, SPLS, WFM, SIAL, BIIB, CHKP, KRFT, VRTX, MNST,  ISRG, SRCL, AVGO, CERN, HSIC, WDC, CA, CSCO, CTSH, FISV, NXPI, PAYX, SIRI, CELG

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
EA, ESRX                 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
 CHRW, CMCSA, LMCA, TSCO                           

Staying Below 30 DMA
COST, DLTR, GILD, ILMN, MAR, QCOM, AAL, ADP, FB, GMCR, LVNTA, STX, TRIP, BBBY, CTRX, DTV, EBAY, FAST, MDLZ, MSFT, MYL ORLY, SBUX, VRSK, ADI, AKAM, AMAT, BRCM, CHTR, DISCA, FOXA, KLAC, LBTYA, LLTC, NFLX PCAR, PCLN, VIAB, ADSK, EXPD, MAT, MU, ADBE, ALTR, CTXS, DISH, EQIX, GOOG, INTC, INTU, SYMC, TXN, YHOO, AAPL, LRCS, NVDA, REGN, NTAP, SNDK, AMGN, VOD, XLNX, ALXN, ATVI, SBAC, AMZN, GRMN, BIDU, TSLA, VIP, WYNN

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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