Four of nine sectors
moved higher and one was unchanged on
Friday…XLE, XLU and XLV were the
strongest sectors and XLY was the weakest.
Breadth was strengthened as advancers led
decliners 1.23 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.31 to 1 on
the NASDAQ.
Friday – strengthened, mixed
Thursday – New Year’s
Day Holiday
Wednesday – mixed, decliners
led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – weakened,
advancers led
SPY down .11 at 205.43 on 121.4 million shares
VIX down 1.41 at 17.79…
TNX down .47 at 21.23…
TLT up 1.40 at 127.32...
XLF unchanged at 24.73 on 32.9 million shares
AAPL down 1.05 at 109.33 on 53.2 million shares
FB up .43 at 78.45…on 18.1 million shares
Technical Commentary:
DIA +0.03%,
SPY -0.05%, QQQ -0.30%,
IWM -0.58%.
Trading begins 2015 with a volatile
bang as the
SPX traded in a 26 point range, the DJIA in a 220 point
range, the NDX in a 70 point range and the RUT in a
23 point range. The SPX and
DJIA closed near unchanged while the NDX and RUT closed
down about 6 points each. The VIX closed down 7% at 17.79 after trading as high as
20.14.
The SPX
was led with gains in RRC, VRTX, LH, DGX, EQT, NEM, TMO, VTR, EQR, NFLX and
NRG.
MU reports earnings after the close on Tuesday, Jan 6. AA reports Jan 12 after the close and is considered the unofficial start of earnings season.
MU reports earnings after the close on Tuesday, Jan 6. AA reports Jan 12 after the close and is considered the unofficial start of earnings season.
IWM is forming a bull flag pullback test of the recent breakout of the
2014 yearlong sideways channel. IWM short-term
Chart Target: 124.07; 6-month Chart Target: 136.30
The SPY, IWM, and DIA are in bull flag price
patterns. Other bull flag patterns include:
XLF, FAS, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLY, AKAM, CMCSA, COST, EA, EBAY, ESRX, FB,
GOOGL, MAR, MNST, PCLN, QCOM, ROST, STX, WDC, WFM, AIG, AMBA, ATI, BAC, BBY, BX,
CAR, CIEN, CRM, EMC, FEYE, GLW, HPQ, JDSU, JNPR, KKD, LNKD, MTW, PANW, RAX,
SCHW, STI, SWKS, V, ANGI, ESI, KNDI, LVS, SINA and ZNGA are in
bull flag patterns. GPRO gave a flag
bounce entry.
Look for bull flag setups in stocks that are
up trending or reversal breakouts from stocks that recently pulled back.
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and
continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Presidential Term Cycle
2015 is the third year of the
presidential term. Since 1945 there
have been 17 complete presidential terms through 2012. This four-year period has become known as the
Presidential Term Cycle (PTC). The third
year is the only year of the PTC that has produced a positive return in the SPX
100% of the time since 1945. Here is the
summary performance of the SPX for each of the four calendar years in the PTC.
Year Up
Years Avg. Annual Return
1 59% 10.43%
2 65% 9.42%
3 100% 19.98%
4 82% 10.05%
While the
future is never determined by the past, the past does give us context for
forming a realistic expectation of the present rather than just making a
subjective guess, which way too many commentators do.
While the
average return for the third year was 19.98%, not one of
the third years produced a 19.98% return.
The range of returns was 2.07% to 38.46%. Four of the years had returns
from 2.07% to 5.69%. Three
of the years returned from 11.59% to 18.69%. Ten of the years produced
returns from 21.11% to 38.46%.
Chart Signals expects the combination of
improving macro-economic environment and this historical cycle, which has been
largely influenced through the decades by an accommodative Fed policy during
the third year in an effort to produce a positive economic environment during
an election year, to produce a continuing up trend during 2015. Investors will need to trade the actual
market action as it unfolds during the year whether it is up, sideways or
down.
Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 207.33, 209.06, 210.49...
QQQ = 106.94…
IWM = 119.90, 121.88, 124.07…
Support Levels
SPY = 207.33, 204.24...
QQQ = 103.08, 102.40…
IWM = 118.34, 116.15...
The SPX Market Forecast is at 85.
___________________
40 out of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: VRTX, VIP, NFLX, CELG, MDLZ, CTRX, LLTC, ALXN,
CA, BIIB
Lagging NDX stocks included: SPLS, BIDU, MAT, LVNTA, FOXA, CHRW, TSLA,
WYNN, LMCA, CMCSA
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday:
SFUN, GPRO, MBLY, QIHU, RWLK, JD, MFRM, TSL, YOKU, CSIQ, JASO
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
JCP, SSYS, Z
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 48
ROST, DLTR, AAL, ORLY, SPLS, TSCO, BBBY, PCAR, EA, AMAT, WFM, AVGO, WDC, ADI, EBAY, FOXA, SIAL, BIIB, CHKP, CHTR,
CMCSA, CSCO, DISCA, FAST, FB, HSIC, KLAC, KRFT, LBTYA, LVNTA, QCOM, TRIP, VIAB,
VRSK, BRCM, CERN, CHRW, COST, ISRG, MAR, SRCL, CTRX, DTV, ESRX, PCLN, SBUX, VRTX,
NXPI
Moving Above 30 DMA =
5
AKAM, CA, CELG, LLTC, NFLX
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ADSK, EXPD, FISV, MAT,
MU, STX
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADBE, ALTR, CTSH, CTXS, DISH, EQIX, GOOG, INTC, INTU, LMCA, MNST, MYL,
SIRI, SYMC, TXN, YHOO, AAPL, ADP, ILMN, LRCX, NVDA, REGN, MSFT, NTAP, PAYX,
SNDK, AMGN, VOD, GILD, XLNX, MDLZ, ALXN, ATVI, SBAC, AMZN, GRMN, BIDU,
TSLA, VIP, GMCR, WYNN
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
No comments:
Post a Comment