Monday, March 31, 2014

RUT Leads Broad Indexes Higher as Financials Bounce in Bull Flag...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Monday and one was unchanged…XLV, XLI and XLU were the strongest sectors…XLE was the weakest sector.    

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 3.22 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday - mixed
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up 1.52 at 187.01 on 99.7 million shares
VIX down .53 at 13.88…
TNX up .11 at 27.23…
TLT down .27 at 109.10...
XLF up .23 at 22.34 on 33.3 million shares

AAPL down .12 at 536.74 on 6.0 million shares
FB up .23 at 60.24…on 52.9 million shares, average volume


Technical Commentary: 
IWM +2.05%, SPY +0.82%, DIA +0.85%, QQQ +0.71%.

The RUT led the broad indexes on Monday as the VIX fell to its lowest close in over a month.  Interest rates TNX rose as bonds and gold fell. 

The SPY made a MACD bullish divergence bounce entry on Monday.  CRM, YNDX, ADSK and CMCSA also made a MACD bullish divergence bounce entry.  Additional Divergence Setups are in our list below.

In the NDX 100 point leaders were MSFT, GILD, BIIB, AMGN, MU, CMCSA and INTC while point decliners included GOOG and AMZN.

While many bounce entries occurred on Monday…continue to look for an opportunity to enter bounce trades according to your rules.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:

SPY = 187.15, 189.25, 190.55…
QQQ = 89.39, 90.96, 92.25
IWM = 118.31, 120.25…

Support Levels
SPY = 183.90, 182.60
QQQ = 86.40, 85.88
IWM = 113.69, 111.35


Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – GME, KKD, MFRM, KKD, BIG, FL, JOY, DRYS, TSL, DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – GOGO, CIEN, COST, CSIQ, HOV, MCP, SSYS, ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (104)

Reversal in progress –ADSK, A, GS, GOGO, JCI, LNKD, MA, RAX, STX, WFM (10, 10%)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – AA, AAPL, ABT, ADP, ADM, ALTR, ATI, BAX, BWLD, DISCA, CELG, CERN, CL, COF, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, CTXS, CRUS, CVX, DD, DDD, EMC, ESRX, FAST, FDO, FSLR, GILD, GLW, HAL, HOG, HON, HUM, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KEY, KLAC, KO, LMT, MDC, MMM, P, PCAR, POT, SFLY, SHW, SINA, SWK, TPX, TSCO, TSO, UNH, VZ,  VFC, VMW, VRSN, WDC, WHR,  XOM, YHOO, ZION (62, 60%)


The Market Forecast green line turned up and is at 63.
____________________

Setups
H Breakout: MFRM,
Diagonal Breakout: ETFC, HOG,
Bull Flag: ATI, BAC, FSLR, IBM, SCHW, X, Z, AAPL, TLT, GRMN, XLNX
One Day:
Potential Bullish Divergence: AAL, JNPR, SPWR, SWI, SOHU, SSYS, YELP, YOKU, AKAM, ALTR, BIDU, CELG, CERN, COST, EXPE, FFIV, GILD, GMCR, ILMN, NTAP,
Gap Up
Gap Down:     
Bear Flag: VRSN, CREE, CIEN, ESI, TPX, TSL, UAL,
At Support: C, PANW, UBNT, V, WLT,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs:  GLW, WDC
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:
H Breakout:    
Diagonal Breakout: CTRP,  
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: FAS, JDSU, MTW, STI, SWKS,
Bounce: ZION,
MACD Divergence Bounce: SPY, CRM, YNDX, ADSK, CMCSA, RAX,
Bear Flag: LNKD,
Support Break: BBRY,

______________________


84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MU, GILD, WDC, STX, WYNN, NTAP, CTSH, ADSK, MSFT, CMCSA

Lagging NDX stocks included: GMCR, NFLX, TSLA, WFM, ROST, ESRX, AMZN, GRMN, QCOM, GOOG

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: ESI, CTRP, UAL, AAL, FAS, JDSU, CREE, UBNT, ZION, CIEN, GOGO, RAX, QIHU, LVS, YOKU, P, SINA, YNDX, CRM, SCTY

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: BBRY, LNKD, UNG


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 30
AVGO, PCAR, ATVI, MSFT, XLNX, MAR, AMAT, KLAC, TXN, GRMN, LLTC, KRFT, FAST, MAT, BRCM, INTC, QCOM, SNDK, STX, ADI, WDC, AAPL, CSCO, NXPI, DISH, MDLZ, PAYX, ROST, BBBY, MXIM,

Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
ALTR, CHKP, CHRW, DTV, HSIC, ISRG

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
SBUX, TSCO

Staying Below 30 DMA
CTXS, INTU, NVDA, DISCA, ADP, AKAM, EBAY, ESRX, FFIV, FISV, LINTA, MYL, SIAL, WFM, VIAB, LMCA, TSLA, TRIP, ADBE, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, DLTR, SYMC, GMCR, ALXN, CERN, YHOO, FB, REGN, FOXA, CTSH, EXPE, GOOG, PCLN, WYNN, LBTYA, SBAC, COST, BIDU, MNST, MU, ORLY, SRCL, EQIX, NFLX, ILMN, CA, VRSK, ADSK, VOD, CELG, GILD, SPLS, VRTX, SIRI, CTRX, CMCSA, NTAP, CHTR, EXPD, VIP


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your great analysis and commentary as always. I wouldn't start the day off without it!