Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Financials Breakout Out Help SPX to All-time New High Close as Ukraine Fears Subside...

In a reversal of Monday’s price action all nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLF, XLV and XLB were the strongest sectors…while XLU was the weakest sector.  

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 5.17 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.61 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, mixed
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up 2.60 at 187.58 on 165 million shares, above average volume
VIX down 1.90 at 14.10…
TNX up .84 at 26.91…
TLT down 1.64 at 107.39...
XLF up .44 at 21.97 on 49.8 million shares, just above average volume

AAPL up 3.48 at 531.24 on 9.2 million shares, below average volume
FB up 1.39 at 68.78…on 41.7 million shares, below average volume


Technical Commentary: 
IWM +2.52%, SPY +1.41%, DIA +1.33%, QQQ +1.27%

SPX, SPY, RUT, IWM reach new all-time high close on Tuesday…
NDX, QQQ thirteen year new high close…
XLF breaks out of short-term resistance closes within 17 cents of bull market closing high of 22.14…
Small cap stocks IWM led other market segments by a large amount indicating that big money is still expecting growth lookinging forward.
XLB, XLI, XLK, XLV and XLY bounced in their bull flag pattern and made a new high close, five of nine sectors are strong…XLF and XLE are at resistance poised to breakout…

Stock markets rebounded as Russia pulled troops from training exercises near the Ukrainian border.  Bonds (TLT), gold (GLD) and oil (USO) gapped down on falling geopolitical tensions.

Financial stocks led all sectors and provided the buying pressure to drive the SPX to a new high for the 49th time in the past year.  That is one in every five trading days during the past year saw a new SPX high.

Be aware that breakout days often retrace the breakout and strong wide range days are followed by a pullback the S1 level of the large white breakout candle.

Numerous bull flags bounced on Tuesday and many of those stocks are now in horizontal resistance breakout setupsSee both the bull flag and horizontal breakout setups below.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 189.25, 190.55…
QQQ = 90.96, 92.25, 93.05
IWM = 120.64, 121.84…

Support Levels
SPY = 187.15, 183.75, 182.60
QQQ = 88.87, 87.35, 86.49
IWM = 118.71, 115.58

Q4 earnings season
The majority of earnings season is done, however there are still a few companies including CSIQ, HOV, CIEN, COST, JOY, QIHU, BIG, and FL that will report over the next few days…AZO neutral reaction

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – DRYS, TSL, DDD, MNST, ROST, YOKU, CRM, SHLD, ANF, TGT, DLTR, LOW, HD, M, SCTY, ZU, PCLN, DISH, INTU, AEE, MDRX, ALEX, DTV, TSLA, GRMN, SWY, KRFT, AMAT, CTRP, NVDA, SPWR, TRIP, REGN, CBOE, MCO, ATVI, AKAM, EXPE, GMCR, NXPI, ONNN, ORLY, SCSS, SWI, TWX, DIS, YELP, AGNC, KORS, KEYW, IDXX, XYL, YUM, NOV, SPG, TSN, ZNGA, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CMG, GOOG, JDSU, MTW, PHM, RYL, UA, VIAB, V, BA, DOW, FB, LVS, QCOM, VLO, AKS, AAL, CHKP, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, CAT, RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL

Negative Reactions – MCP, SSYS, ADSK, CRM, FSLR, SINA, ESRX, GRPN, YNDX, KO, A, GNC, WTW, VFC, WFM, ANGI, CSCO, DISCA, NTAP, RAX, CI, LNKD, TPX, VRSN, ADP, CTSH, HUM, MDC, P, TSO, TWTR, ADM, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DDD, SFLY, GILD, CVX, MA, MAT, PCAR, AMZN, MMM, CELG, CL, XOM, ESI, HOG, OSTK, POT, SHW, WHR, BA, CTXS, EMC, TSCO, CRUS, GLW, DD, F, VMW, YHOO, AAPL, STX, ZION, HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN (100)

Reversal in progress – FSLR, RAX, ADSK, WFM, CSX, GS, COF, JNJ, IBM, ATI, JCI, KEY, STX, CRUS (14, 14%)

Reversal of Initial Reaction – UNH, WDC, DISCA, XOM, CTXS, DDD, SFLY, TPX, VZ, ABT, BAX, AAPL, CL, VRSN, CSCO, ADP, CTSH, HUM, P, TSO, ADM, CERN, GILD, PCAR, MMM, CELG, HOG, POT, SHW, EMC, GLW, DD, VMW, YHOO, ZION, HON, SWK, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, LMT, HAL, FAST, FDO, AA (45, 45%)


The Market Forecast Green Line closed at 92.

____________________

Setups
H Breakout: AAL, CSIQ, NKE, P, SCSS, MU, NFLX, PCLN, SNDK, TSLA, WDC, BX, DRYS, FSLR, GLW, JDSU, MFRM, MTW, NKE, RAX, SPWR, STI, SWI, TSL, V, YELP, ZION, AKAM, AMZN, CMCSA, CTSH, ESRX, FFIV, MNST, MSFT, QCOM, TXN, VMW
Diagonal Breakout: C, DDD, GRPN, JNPR, TWTR, CELG,
Bull Flag:  BBRY, GME, SCTY, GILD, GMCR, ROST,
One Day:  
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up
Gap Down:    
Bear Flag:   
At Support: ANGI,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: LVS, SOHU, SWKS, DTV, GRMN, WYNN, QIHU, EBAY, TRIP, XLNX,
Gap Up: QCOM, SPY, IWM, JDSU, NKE, SBUX, TRIP, TSLA, XLNX,
Gap Down: GLD, TLT,
H Breakout: A, ATI, BAC, S, FAS, IBM, IWM, SPY, MS, GS, SFUN, STI, VRSN, YHOO
Diagonal Breakout:  FSLR, GOGO,
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: AAL, DAL, UAL, CSIQ, NKE, P, SCSS, FB, GOOG, MU, NFLX, PCLN, SNDK, TRIP, TSLA, WDC, KKD, ADSK, BX, CRM, MTW, RAX, SPLK, SPWR, SWI, YELP, ADBE, AKAM, CTSH, EBAY, FFIV, MSFT, TXN, VMW
Bounce: RCL, YNDX, CREE, TMUS, TSL, X, YOKU, Z, ZION, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, CELG, CMCSA, ESRX, GILD, MNST, STX, WFM,
MACD Divergence Bounce: TBT,
Bear Flag

Support Break

______________________


93 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TRIP, INTU, YHOO, ADSK, NXPI, ILMN, QCOM, MYL, WFM, PAYX

Lagging NDX stocks included: SYMC, GMCR, ISRG, NTAP, DLTR, DTV, LBTYA

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: TSL, SPWR, CSIQ, QIHU, YNDX, SFUN, FAS, DRYS, GOGO, ATI, AAL, P, SPLK, YELP, FSLR, KKD, BX, RAX, MFRM, TBT, UNG, MTW, UAL, MS, GRPN, STI, BAC, CRM, C, IWM, GLW, CREE, XONE, ANGI

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MCP

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 77
ILMN, EQIX, FFIV, ISRG, MU, BIIB, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NFLX, ALTR, ALXN, REGN, FB, GMCR, GOOG, WYNN, ADBE, DISH, ORLY, EBAY, AKAM, AVGO, DTV, PCAR, AMGN, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, GILD, MNST, MSFT, MYL, NVDA, PCLN, SNDK, TRIP, ADI, MAR, XLNX, AMAT, CHKP, KLAC, TXN, CTSH, GRMN, HSIC, KRFT, LINTA, LLTC,VIAB, BIDU, FOXA, LMCA, MDLZ, FISV, LBTYA, DISCA, CTXS, FAST, INTU, VOD, WDC,WFM, BBBY, CA, DLTR, ROST, SIAL, ADP, COST, TSCO, SPLS, CELG, SBAC, YHOO, AAPL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
ADSK, BRCM, ESRX, INTC, PAYX, QCOM, SIRI, STX, VRTX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
CTRX, VRSK, CMCSA, CSCO, SBUX, SRCL, CHTR, NTAP, CHRW, AMZN, SYMC, EXPD, VIP, MAT

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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