Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Stocks Take Step Back...As Investors Await Fed's Decision On Tapering Bond Buying Strategy...TSL Bounces Up 9.57%...AVGO Continues Bounce Up 6.91%...

Only one of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLB, XLK and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLF was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…1.16 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.22 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
 
 
SPY down .57 at 178.65 volume 86.7 million shares
VIX up .18 at 16.21…
TNX down .34 at 28.43…
TLT up .46 at 103.29...
XLF down .14 at 21.12 volume 26.9 million shares
 
AAPL down 2.51 at 554.99 volume 8.1 million shares
FB up 1.05 at 54.86…volume 78.4 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
SPY – 0.32%, QQQ – 0.20% IWM – 0.14%, DIA – 0.08%.
 
Trading volume shifted from the Dec Z3 contracts to the Mar H4 on Friday.
 
Stocks finished the session on Tuesday down with investors taking a wait and see stance the day before the Fed decides on whether to taper its bond buying strategy.  The S&P 500 fell 5.54 points while the DJIA was down 9.31 points.
 
Some gainers in today’s session were TSL with a bounce moving to the up side and breaking diagonal resistance, gaining 1.18 or 9.57% on 7.2 million shares.  AVGO continued its bounce from yesterday and gained another 3.46 or 6.91% and finished the session with another new high.  Volume was 8.7 million shares. RAX gained 2.32 or 6.66% on 4.3 million shares and is close to breaking through diagonal resistance.  GOGO bounced from a bull flag gaining 1.83 or 6.45% on 3.6 million shares.  The next test will be a horizontal resistance at 35.77.
 
 
Finish 2013 strong by following your rules and begin to look for positive changes to make in 2014.
 
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term up trend chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02Monday’s high 181.67 within 39 cents of horizontal resistance
QQQ = 86.69, 85.77…exceeded on Friday
IWM = 113.10, 114.39
 
Short-term SPY posture is neutral
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.78, 84.11
IWM = 110.88, 110.37, 108.85
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – AVGO, MFRM, SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down and below 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: FB, WFM, GS, AA, GLW, GRPN, MFRM, SCSS, SFUN, SWKS, TPX,
Diagonal Breakout: SNDK, SYMC, XLNX, RAX, YELP, Z,   
Bull Flag: AAPL, ADSK, BIDU, CELG, DTV, QCOM, UNG,
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: AMGN, GRMN,
C- Pattern:
 
Moves
New Highs: WDC, V, A, BX, V,  
Gap Up: MMM,   
Gap Down:   
H Breakout: GMCR, NUAN, STX,   
Diagonal Breakout: SPLK, TSL,     
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: ANGI, CRM, GOGO, MCP, VECO,
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
Bear Flag:  
Support Break: 
 
______________________
 
 
49 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: AVGO, STX, NUAN, NFLX, WFM, SYMC, FB, ATVI, WDC
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: REGN, GILD, ISRG, LBTYA, CTXS, SPLS, CELG, PCLN, LMCA, AMGN
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: TSL, RAX, ANGI, GOGO, MCP, SFUN, YELP, SWI, VECO, GRPN, SPWR, SWKS, V, CRM, A, SPLK
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JCP, UAL, ALK
 
 
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 48
CTSH, AAPL, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, LLTC, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BIDU, BRCM, FB, WYNN, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, TSLA, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, EBAY, VIAB, VRSK, CA, CHKP, FFIV, LINTA, PCAR, VOD
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
FAST, SNDK, SYMC, VRTX, XLNX
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
CTXS, GILD, PAYX, CHTR
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
MAT, XRAY, ADP, GRMN, MSFT, SPLS, TXN, KRFT, ATVI, BBBY,HSIC, MCHP, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, CERN, SRCL, ADI, COST, KLAC, SBUX, LMCA, SHLD, SIRI, DISCA, REGN, FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SBAC, CHRW, FOXA, CSCO, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, EXPD, MXIM, ALTR, XLNX
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
 

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