Tuesday, December 31, 2013

SPX, DJI and RUT Finish 2013 All-time Closing Highs...NDX, COMPQ at Bull Market Highs...Happy New Year!

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday, the last day of 2013…XLE, XLK and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLV was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners…1.88 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, mixed
Thursday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Wednesday – Closed Christmas


SPY up .87 at 184.69 volume 86.2 million shares
VIX up .06 at 13.72…
TNX up .50 at 30.26… highest close since July 7, 2011
TLT down .65 at 101.86...
XLF up .11 at 21.86 volume 18.5 million shares

AAPL up 6.50 at 561.02 volume 8 million shares
FB up 94 cents at 54.65…volume 43.1 million shares

Technical Commentary: 
QQQ +0.65%, DIA +0.53%, SPY +0.47%, IWM +0.23%.

Markets will be closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day.  Happy New Year everyone!

2013 was a great year in the broad indexes led by sector gains in XLY, XLV, XLI and XLF and many individual stocks.  Gains included:

SPX    +29.6%
NDX   +34.99%
RUT   +37.00%

XLY    +40.87%
XLV    +39.02%
XLI      +37.89%
XLF    +33.37%

NFLX +297.63%
MU      +243.06%
FB       +105.30%
GILD   +104.47%
PCLN +87.37%
BIDU  +77.37%
AMZN +59.02%
GOOG+58.43%


Tuesday:
TWTR +5.19% started to bounce in its bull flag pattern.

FB +1.75% formed a bullish harami in its bull flag pattern.

DRYS +7.31% formed a gap engulfing candle in its bull flag pattern.

S +1.61% formed a bullish harami in its pennant pattern.

The trend continues higher for the overall market with basic materials, industrial, energy, technology and financial sectors leading the way.  Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.

The economic outlook continues to strengthen heading into 2014.  While the stock market does not go straight up and instead moves in a zig zag manner of higher highs and pull backs to higher lows, currently the weight of the technical evidence at the end of 2013 suggests trend continuation into 2014.


Chart Signals hopes you have taken the time to evaluate your 2013 trading performance and that you have NOW identified specific improvements that you can make for 2014.

Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 183.37, 185.02
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74
IWM = 117.15, 119.00


Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – LEN, BBRY, RHT, WAG, ORCL, AVGO, MFRM, SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA

Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: ALK, ANGI, CIEN, CREE, CRM, MCP, NKE, RAX, SCTY, SOHU, SPWR, SWI, SWKS, TBT, TSL, VECO, YELP, YNDX, Z, ZION, BIDU,
Diagonal Breakout: BAC, C, CMG, CSIQ, SPLK, UAL, DAL, AAL, YOKU, GILD, MU,
Bull Flag: A, ATI, BBRY, CLF, GME, GRPN, MFRM, SCSS, SFUN, IWM, TWTR, X, XONE, AMZN, FB, NFLX,
Potential Bullish Divergence: ESI, FIVE, FSLR, GLD, LNKD, P, PCLN
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: GOGO, UNG,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: BX, DDD, FAS, GLW, GS, JNPR, LVS, NTES, RCL, SPY, DIA, QQQ, SSYS, TIF, TPX, V, VRSN, YNDX, GOOG,
Gap Up:        
Gap Down:     
H Breakout: IBM, JCP, SINA, BIDU,  
Diagonal Breakout: QIHU, RAX,
Breakout Test: 
Bounce:  STI, VRSN, YELP, Z, AAPL,
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
Bear Flag:  UNG,
Support Break: UNG, 

______________________


77 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: EQIX, BIDU, MU, GOLD, CHTR, TSCO, FB, LBTYA, EBAY, ADSK

Lagging NDX stocks included: TSLA, AMGN, REGN, GRMN, STX, SIRI, CTRX, MAT, SPLS, ADP

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: ANGI, TWTR, MCP, YELP, GRPN, SSYS, SINA, BBRY, RAX, YNDX

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: UNG, GOGO, SCSS, TSL

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 85
CTSH, AAPL, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, DISH, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BIDU, BRCM, WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, TSLA, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, EBAY, VIAB, VRSK, CA, CHKP, FFIV, LINTA, PCAR, VOD, TSCO, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, ADP, ATVI, CTXS, GILD, PAYX, ADI, CTRX, DISCA, KRFT, FOXA, NXP, AMAT, EXPD, KLAC, MAT, NVDA, SPLS, TXN, VIP, ALTR, BBBY, CSCO, HSIC, SYMC, SBAC, CHTR, AMGN, FAST, CHRW, ISRG, NTAP, DLTR, MYL, WFM

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
MU, ROST

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
PCLN, GRMN, MSFT, CERN, SRCL, TRIP, COST, LMCA, SBUX, REGN, SIRI, GOLD, MXIM

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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