Friday, August 9, 2013

Basic Material Stocks Lead for Second Straight Day as Broad Market Pauses on Friday...Coal, Steel Soar...

Only one of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLB, XLY and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…1.06 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.41 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
 
Friday – weakened – decliners led
Thursday – strengthened – advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday - mixed
 
 
SPY down .49…volume 91.8 million shares
VIX up .68…at 13.41…
TNX down .07 at 25.80…
TLT up .17 at 107.26...
XLF down .07 at 20.42…volume 20.8 million shares
 
AAPL down 6.56 at 454.45volume 9.5 million shares
FB down .04 at 38.50volume 43.6 million shares
 
Technical Commentary:
 
QQQ – 0.40%, DIA – 0.37%, SPY – 0.29%, IWM - 0.11%.  
 
XLB Basic Materials sector led for the second straight day and was the only positive sector on Friday.  Steel stocks NUE +4.02%, X +4.20%, ATI +3.83%, VALE +5.58% were on the rise on Friday as was CLF +10.63% an iron producer and metallurgical coal mining.  Other coal stocks  WLT +13.75%, ANR +11.39%, JRCC +11.80%, ACI +8.65% breakout, BTU +7.83% breakout and CNX +3.99% breakout, all soared on Friday. Coal ETF KOL +3.24% was also strong.
 
From late June to late July small caps IWM led the broad market.  This week seems to indicate that big money is rotating into basic materials which has been a lagging sector.  Both moves seem to indicate that big money believes the economy is going to continue to expand.
 
MSFT holds above S1 and horizontal breakout level on Friday.
 
STX double bottom MACD divergence setup on Friday.
 
WDC higher low W pattern horizontal breakout on Friday.
 
With the majority of companies quarterly earnings behind traders can now focus on the technical setup rather than avoiding setups due to a pending earnings release.
 
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, DSW, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper zone. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: AKAM, BIDU, FFIV, MNST, MU, SNDK, STX, CREE, DNKN, GMCR, GME, KKD, MFRM, P, SPLK, SWI, TIF,
 
Diagonal Breakout: ADSK, ANR, SOHU, TLT, WLT,
 
Bull Flag: AAPL, AMGN, AMZN, ATVI, BBBY, CELG, CMCSA, CSCO, CTSH, FAST, GILD, GRMN, ROST, SBUX, XLNX, BAC, CMG, ESI, RCL, YELP,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down:  
 
Bear Flag:   
 
At Support: COST, INTC, NVDA, GS,
 
 
Moves
New Highs: NTAP, SINA, Z,
 
Gap Up: PCLN, BBRY, CLF,
 
Gap Down:    
 
H&D Breakout: ATI, CNX, RAX, SCSS,
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce:  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce:  
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: JNPR,  
 
______________________
 
 
36 of 100 Leading NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and three were unchanged.
 
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOLD, PCLN, BIDU, LINTA, WDC, NFLX, YHOO, ADSK, SIRI, SPLS, AMZN, INTU
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  BIIB, MDLZ, ATVI, COST, DTV, AAPL, NVDA, SHLD, AVGO, KLAC, NUAN, ESRX, CTRX, BBBY
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ANR, CLF, BBRY, X, UCO, ATI, CDE, TSL, FCX, SINA, GMCR, CROX, AKS
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
MCP, JNPR, ESI, SSYS, UAL, MOS, CIEN
 
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 70
TSLA, SPLS, CSCO, GRMN, INTU, BBBY, MCHP, PCLN, SRCL, ALTR, CA, ORLY, ROST, VOD, VIAB, FB, LMCA, CMCSA, HSIC, VRSK, ADP, ALXN, CHKP, CTSH, NTAP, SYMC, WFM, NFLX, BMC, CELG, ESRX, FISV, LLTC, XLNX, ADI, ATVI, CTXS, EXPD, GILD, LIFE, MYL, PAYX, XRAY, TXN, SIAL, SIRI, AKAM, YHOO, AMGN, BIDU, FFIV, MDLZ, CTRX. QCOM, AAPL, FAST, XBUX, MXIM, WYNN, NVDA, MNST, FOXA, NUAN, DISCA, DELL, MYM FOSL, ADSK, GOLD, WDC
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 7
ADBE, COST, DLTR, EBAY, KLAC, PCAR, LBTYA
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMAT, AMZN, BIIB, CERN, CHRW, KRFT, GOOG, LINTA, SHLD, REGN, DTV, SBAC, EXPE, VRTX, SNDK, EQIX, STX, AVGO, MSFT, BRCM, MAT, ISRG, INTC
 
Four-Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave!