Euro Breaks Out as Materials, Energy, Financials Jump...SPY New High Close...

Euro rises 182 pips and breaks out of horizontal resistance with new chart targets at 1.3095 and 1.3345.  Following the Euro breakout XLF financial sector rose for the second straight day helping lift SPY to a new closing high.

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLB, XLE and XLF were the strongest sectors.

 

XLB Basic Material stocks led all sectors with steel stocks SCHN +9.20%, X +8.75% and AKS +7.64% and metals CLF +14.49% and FCX +8.50% among the big winners on Friday.

 

XLE Energy included coal stocks ANR +16.75%, BTU +10.79%, WLT +8.20% and ACI +8.20% which also made large gains.

XLF Financials included BAC +5.39%, MS +5.11%, C +3.05%, STI +3.07%, ZION +2.89% and GS +2.46% among sector leaders.

Breadth weakened on Friday as advancers led decliners 2.15 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.32 to 1 on the NASDAQ… 

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ 
Advancers     2,014       1,360
Decliners         935       1,023

Friday Highlights:

SPY gained 56 cents…closing at 144.33…volume was 107.2 million shares…

VIX down –1.22 at 14.38…

Euro up 182 pips at 1.2811…

TNX -0.12 at 16.61…

TLT down 58 cents at 124.03…

XLF up 16 cents at 15.68…

Gold up 32.00 at 1737.60…

Oil up 76 cents at 96.29…

AAPL up 4.17 at 680.44…volume 11.7 million shares …

FB up 2 cents at 18.98… volume 36.3 million shares…

The Market Forecast green line is in the upper zone.

YTD At a Glance

                        Friday             YTD

SPY                +0.39%          +16.10%

AAPL              +0.62%          +68.73%

EXPE              +1.37%          +87.82%

STX                 -3.47%           +90.06%

EBAY              +0.67%          +62.35% 

Technical Commentary: The SPY broke out of diagonal and horizontal resistance Thursday on its largest trading volume in more than a month.  XLF also broke out of diagonal and horizontal resistance on increasing volume on Thursday.  The Euro exploded on Friday with a 182 pip move up and 3 ½ month horizontal resistance breakout.  The RUT led the broad sectors this week and IWM closed above its March highs for the first time this year.

(click image to enlarge)

These breakouts indicate that higher prices are on the way.  Keep in mind that a large percentage of breakouts make a return move and test the breakout forming a bull flag or other type of consolidation.    

New Chart Targets: 

SPY = 144.92 1.61 Fib, 146.05 S&R Measuring

ES = 1,443.50 1.61 Fib, 1,455.00 S&R Measuring

Eur/Usd = 1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345 S&R Measuring.

Short-term support at

143.09, 140.22, 139.80 = SPY

1,424.75, 1,403, 1,395 = ES

2,802.50, 2,750, 2,743 = NQ

While stocks like SCHN, X, FCX, CNX, C, BAC, STI, ZION and JDSU gave either bounce or breakout signals on Thursday or Friday, stock like ANR, BTU, AKS, MCP, WLT, ACI, JRCC, KOL and CLF are setting up potential reversal patterns and may be near breakout entry signals.

(click image to enlarge)

50 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday… 

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, RIMM, AMZN, EA, PCLN, SIAL, GOLD, INFY, VMED, FSLR 

Lagging NDX stocks included: KFT, MU, INTC, STX, BIDU, NVDA, ATVI, ADSK, ROST, CTXS 

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ANR, CLF, X, FCX, CMG, AKS, BAC, MCP, ATI, JDSU, UCO, CDE, TIF, SOHU, STI, C, RCL, COH, VECO, ZION, TSLA, FAS, SINA, JNPR, RVBD, A, GS, LVS, F, INFA, GES, GLW, CIEN 

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: TPX, WDC, FAZ, DECK 

Stocks to Watch on Monday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 46 
UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, CRUS, SWKS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW, CSTR, MOS, UAL, CMG, DE, DHR, ESI, IBM, JNPR, SWK, TBT, V, VMW  
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
A, AKS, ANR, ATI, SLB, TSLA, VECO 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
DECK, SMH, WDC

Staying Below 30 DMA 
TLT, CIEN, TSL, X, GES, HLF, CHL, NTES, GRPN, CLF, DLR, ZAGG, FAZ, FB, LDK, MCP

Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up